Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models

Experimental benchmark and code validation for airfoils equipped with passive vortex generators

Experimental results and complimentary computations for airfoils with vortex generators are compared in this paper, as part of an effort within the AVATAR project to develop tools for wind turbine blade control devices. Measurements from two airfoils equipped with passive vortex generators, a 30% thick DU97W300 and an 18% thick NTUA T18 have been used for benchmarking several simulation tools. These tools span low-to-high complexity, ranging from engineering-level integral boundary layer tools to fully-resolved computational fluid dynamics codes. Results indicate that with appropriate calibration, engineering-type tools can capture the effects of vortex generators and outperform more complex tools. Fully resolved CFD comes at a much higher computational cost and does not necessarily capture the increased lift due to the VGs. However, in lieu of the limited experimental data available for calibration, high fidelity tools are still required for assessing the effect of vortex generators on airfoil performance

COLEC10 is mutated in 3MC patients and regulates early craniofacial development

3MC syndrome is an autosomal recessive heterogeneous disorder with features linked to developmental abnormalities. The main features include facial dysmorphism, craniosynostosis and cleft lip/palate; skeletal structures derived from cranial neural crest cells (cNCC). We previously reported that lectin complement pathway genes COLEC11 and MASP1/3 are mutated in 3MC syndrome patients. Here we define a new gene, COLEC10, also mutated in 3MC families and present novel mutations in COLEC11 and MASP1/3 genes in a further five families. The protein products of COLEC11 and COLEC10, CL-K1 and CL-L1 respectively, form heteromeric complexes. We show COLEC10 is expressed in the base membrane of the palate during murine embryo development. We demonstrate how mutations in COLEC10 (c.25C>T; p.Arg9Ter, c.226delA; p.Gly77Glufs*66 and c.528C>G p.Cys176Trp) impair the expression and/or secretion of CL-L1 highlighting their pathogenicity. Together, these findings provide further evidence linking the lectin complement pathway and complement factors COLEC11 and COLEC10 to morphogenesis of craniofacial structures and 3MC etiology.New life Fundation for Disabled Childre

Computing the flow past Vortex Generators: Comparison between RANS Simulations and Experiments

The flow around a wind turbine airfoil equipped with Vortex Generators (VGs) is examined. Predictions from three different Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solvers with two different turbulence models and two different VG modelling approaches are compared between them and with experimental data. The best results are obtained with the more expensive fully resolved VG approach. The cost efficient BAY model can also provide acceptable results, if grid related numerical diffusion is minimized and only force coefficient polars are considered