Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health conditions.OBJECTIVE To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual-level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5 222 711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A 2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Because clinical variables were often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately for participants with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external cohorts (n = 2 253 540).EXPOSURES Demographic and clinical factors.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2).RESULTS Among 4 441 084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% women), 660 856 incident cases (14.9%) of reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Of 781 627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% women), 313 646 incident cases (40%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A(1c), and the interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13 study populations (69%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed from more than 5 million individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and variable calibration in diverse populations. Further study is needed to determine whether use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care and patient outcomes.</p

Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

1000 Genomes-based meta-analysis identifies 10 novel loci for kidney function

HapMap imputed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed &gt;50 loci at which common variants with minor allele frequency &gt;5% are associated with kidney function. GWAS using more complete reference sets for imputation, such as those from The 1000 Genomes project, promise to identify novel loci that have been missed by previous efforts. To investigate the value of such a more complete variant catalog, we conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of kidney function based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in 110,517 European ancestry participants using 1000 Genomes imputed data. We identified 10 novel loci with p-value &lt; 5 × 10(-8) previously missed by HapMap-based GWAS. Six of these loci (HOXD8, ARL15, PIK3R1, EYA4, ASTN2, and EPB41L3) are tagged by common SNPs unique to the 1000 Genomes reference panel. Using pathway analysis, we identified 39 significant (FDR &lt; 0.05) genes and 127 significantly (FDR &lt; 0.05) enriched gene sets, which were missed by our previous analyses. Among those, the 10 identified novel genes are part of pathways of kidney development, carbohydrate metabolism, cardiac septum development and glucose metabolism. These results highlight the utility of re-imputing from denser reference panels, until whole-genome sequencing becomes feasible in large samples

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million personyears of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eG FR values 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2), compared with those with eG FR between 60 and 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2). Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2). Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin Alc, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function

The DNA methylome in panic disorder:a case-control and longitudinal psychotherapy-epigenetic study

In panic disorder (PD), epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation of candidate genes have been suggested to play a key role at the intersection of genetic and environmental factors. On an epigenome-wide level, however, only two studies in PD patients have been published so far, while to date no study has intra-individually analyzed dynamic epigenetic correlates of treatment-response in PD on a DNA methylome level. Here, an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) was performed in a sample of 57 PD patients and matched healthy controls using the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip, along with a longitudinal approach assessing changes on the DNA methylome level corresponding to clinical effects of a manualized six-week cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in PD. While no epigenome-wide significant hits could be discerned, top suggestive evidence was observed for decreased methylation in PD at cg19917903 in the Cilia and Flagella Associated Protein 46 (CFAP46) gene, and for an increase in methylation after CBT at cg06943668 in the Interleukin 1 Receptor Type 1 (IL1R1) gene in treatment responders to CBT. Additional exploratory analyses based on biological validity and a combined statistical/biological ranking point to further new potential PD risk genes such as the CCL4L1 or GMNN genes, and suggest dynamic methylation of, e.g., the ZFP622 and the SLC43A2 genes along with response to CBT. These EWAS and first longitudinal epigenome-wide pilot data in PD add to the emerging candidate gene-based body of evidence for epigenetic mechanisms to be involved in PD pathogenesis and to possibly constitute dynamic biological correlates of therapeutic interventions.</p

Genetic associations of hemoglobin in children with chronic kidney disease in the PediGFR Consortium

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in healthy populations have identified variants associated with erythrocyte traits, but genetic causes of hemoglobin variation in children with CKD are incompletely understood

Genetic Variants of Serum Uric Acid and Gout: An Analysis of > 170,000 Individuals

Background/Purpose: Gout is a common and excruciatingly painful inflammatory arthritis caused by hyperuricemia. In addition to various lifestyle risk factors, a substantial genetic predisposition to gout has long been recognized. The Global Urate Genetics Consortium (GUGC) has aimed to comprehensively investigate the genetics of serum uric acid and gout using data from _ 140,000 individuals of European-ancestry, 8,340 individuals of Indian ancestry, 5,820 African-Americans, and 15,286 Japanese. Methods: We performed discovery GWAS meta-analyses of serum urate levels (n_110,347 individuals) followed by replication analyses (n_32,813 different individuals). Our gout analysis involved 3,151 cases and 68,350 controls, including 1,036 incident gout cases that met the American College of Rheumatology Criteria. We also examined the association of gout with fractional excretion of uric acid (n_6,799). A weighted genetic urate score was constructed based on the number of risk alleles across urate-associated loci, and their association with the risk of gout was evaluated. Furthermore, we examined implicated transcript expression in cis (expression quantitative trait loci databases) for potential insights into the gene underlying the association signal. Finally, in order to further identify urate-associated genomic regions, we performed functional network analyses that incorporated prior knowledge on molecular interactions in which the gene products of implicated genes operate. Results: We identified and replicated 28 genome-wide significant loci in association with serum urate (P 5_10_8), including all previously-reported loci as well as 18 novel genetic loci. Unlike the majority of previouslyidentified loci, none of the novel loci appeared to be obvious candidates for urate transport. Rather, they were mapped to genes that encode for purine production, transcription, or growth factors with broad downstream responses. Besides SLC2A9 and ABCG2, no additional regions contained SNPs that differed significantly (P _ 5_10_8) between sexes. Urateincreasing alleles were associated with an increased risk of gout for all loci. The urate genetic risk score (ranging from 10 to 45) was significantly associated with an increased odds of prevalent gout (OR per unit increase, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.09-1.14) and incident gout (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.08-1.13). Associations for many of the loci were of similar magnitude in individuals of non-European ancestry. Detailed characterization of the loci revealed associations with transcript expression and the fractional excretion of urate. Network analyses implicated the inhibins-activins signaling pathways and glucose metabolism in systemic urate control. Conclusion: The novel genetic candidates identified in this urate/gout consortium study, the largest to date, highlight the importance of metabolic control of urate production and urate excretion. The modulation by signaling processes that influence metabolic pathways such as glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway appear to be central mechanisms underpinned by the novel GWAS candidates. These findings may have implications for further research into urate-lowering drugs to treat and prevent gout

Serum Metabolite Concentrations and Decreased GFR in the General Population

Background: Metabolites such as creatinine and urea are established kidney function markers. High-throughput metabolomic studies have not been reported in large general population samples spanning normal kidney function and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study Design: Cross-sectional observational studies of the general population. Setting &amp; Participants: 2 independent samples: KORA F4 (discovery sample, n = 3,011) and TwinsUK (validation sample, n = 984). Exposure Factors: 151 serum metabolites, quantified by targeted mass spectrometry. Outcomes &amp; Measurements: Metabolites and their 22,650 ratios were analyzed by multivariable-adjusted linear regression for their association with glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), estimated separately from creatinine and cystatin C levels by CKD-EPI (CKD Epidemiology Collaboration) equations. After correction for multiple testing, significant metabolites (P &lt; 3.3 x 10(-4) for single metabolites; P &lt; 2.2 x 10(-6) for ratios) were meta-analyzed with independent data from the TwinsUK Study. Results: Replicated associations with eGFR were observed for 22 metabolites and 516 metabolite ratios. Pooled P values ranged from 7.1 x 10(-7) to 1.8 x 10(-69) for the replicated single metabolites. Acylcarnitines such as glutarylcarnitine were associated inversely with eGFR (-3.73 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per standard deviation [SD] increase, pooled P = 1.8 x 10(-69)). The replicated ratio with the strongest association was the ratio of serine to glutarylcarnitine (P = 3.6 x 10(-81)). Almost all replicated phenotypes associated with decreased eGFR (&lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m(2); n = 172 cases) in KORA F4: per 1-SD increment, ORs ranged from 0.29-2.06. Across categories of a metabolic score consisting of 3 uncorrelated metabolites, the prevalence of decreased eGFR increased from 3% to 53%. Limitations: Cross-sectional study design, GFR was estimated, limited number of metabolites. Conclusions: Distinct metabolic phenotypes were reproducibly associated with eGFR in 2 separate population studies. They may provide novel insights into renal metabolite handling, improve understanding of pathophysiology, or aid in the diagnosis of kidney disease. Longitudinal studies are needed to clarify whether changes in metabolic phenotypes precede or result from kidney function impairment

Building a network of ADPKD reference centres across Europe: the EuroCYST initiative

Background. Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common monogenic inherited kidney disease, affecting an estimated 600 000 individuals in Europe. The disease is characterized by age-dependent development of a multiple cysts in the kidneys, ultimately leading to end-stage renal failure and the need of renal replacement therapy in the majority of patients, typically by the fifth or sixth decade of life. The variable disease course, even within the same family, remains largely unexplained. Similarly, assessing disease severity and prognosis in an individual with ADPKD remains difficult. Epidemiological studies are limited due to the fragmentation of ADPKD research in Europe