How certain is ‘certain’?: exploring how the English-language media reported the use of calibrated language in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report

This article presents findings from an analysis of English-language media reports following the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report in September 2013. Focusing on the way they reported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s use of ‘calibrated’ language, we find that of 1906 articles relating to the issuing of the report only 272 articles (14.27%) convey the use of a deliberate and systematic verbal scale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s carefully calibrated language was rarely discussed or explicated, but in some instances scientists, political actors or journalists would attempt to contextualise or elaborate on the reported findings by using analogies to other scientific principles or examples of taking action despite uncertainty. We consider those analogies in terms of their efficacy in communicating (un)certainty

Fear of the Market or Fear of the Competitor? Ambiguity in a Real Options Game

In this paper we study an investment game between two firms with a first--mover advantage, where payoffs are driven by a geometric Brownian motion. At least one of the firms is assumed to be ambiguous over the drift, with maxmin preferences over a strongly rectangular set of priors. We develop a strategy and equilibrium concept allowing for ambiguity and show that equilibria can be preemptive (a firm invests at a point where investment is Pareto dominated by waiting) or sequential (one firm invests as if it were the exogenously appointed leader). Following the standard literature, the worst--case prior for an ambiguous firm in the follower role is obtained by setting the lowest possible trend in the set of priors. However, if an ambiguous firm is the first mover, then the worst--case drift can fluctuate between the lowest and the highest trends. This novel result shows that ``worst--case prior'' in a setting with drift ambiguity does not always equate to ``lowest trend''. As a consequence, preemptive pressure reduces. We show that this results in the possibility of firm value being increasing in the level of ambiguity. If only one firm is ambiguous, then the value of the non--ambiguous firm can be increasing in the level of ambiguity of the ambiguous firm

Human rights and ethical reasoning : capabilities, conventions and spheres of public action

This interdisciplinary article argues that human rights must be understood in terms of opportunities for social participation and that social and economic rights are integral to any discussion of the subject. We offer both a social constructionist and a normative framework for a sociology of human rights which reaches beyond liberal individualism, combining insights from the work of Amartya Sen and from French convention theory. Following Sen, we argue that human rights are founded on the promotion of human capabilities as ethical demands shaped by public reasoning. Using French convention theory, we show how the terms of such deliberation are shaped by different constructions of collectively held values and the compromises reached between them. We conclude by demonstrating how our approach offers a new perspective on spheres of public action and the role these should play in promoting social cohesion, individual capabilities and human rights

Energy transitions and uncertainty: creating low carbon investment opportunities in the UK electricity sector

This paper examines how actors in the UK electricity sector are attempting to deliver investment in low carbon generation. Low carbon technologies, because of their relative immaturity, capital intensity and low operational costs, do not readily fit with existing electricity markets and investment templates which were designed for fossil fuel based energy. We analyse key electricity market and infrastructure policies in the UK and highlight how these are aimed at making low carbon technologies ‘investable’ by reducing uncertainty, managing investment risks and repositioning actors within the electricity socio-technical ‘regime’. We argue that our study can inform contemporary debates on the politics and governance of sustainability transitions by empirically investigating the agency of incumbent regime actors in the face of uncertainty and by offering critical insights on the role of markets and finance in shaping socio-technical change

Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Risk-Driven Design Processes: Balancing Efficiency with Resilience in Product Design

Current design methods and approaches focus on increasing the efficiency of the product design system by, for example, eliminating waste and focusing on value creation. However, continuing failures in the development of complex, large scale products and systems point towards weaknesses in the existing approaches. We argue that product development organizations are hindered by the many uncertainties that are inherent in the process. Common management heuristics ignore uncertainty and thus overly simplify the decision making process. Creating transparency regarding uncertainties and the associated risks (i.e. effect of uncertainties on design objectives) is not seen as an explicit priority. Consequently organizations are unable to balance risk and return in their development choices. Product development processes do not emphasize reduction of risks, particularly those risks that are apparent early in the process. In addition, the resilience of the PD system, i.e. its ability to deliver on-target results under uncertainty, is not deliberately designed to match the level of residual uncertainty. This chapter introduces the notion of Risk-Driven Design and its four principles of 1. Creating transparency regarding design risks; 2. Risk-driven decision making; 3. Minimizing uncertainty; and 4. Creating resilience.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Lean Advancement InitiativeCenter for Clean Water and Clean Energy at MIT and KFUP

Treatment of hypertension in rural Cambodia: results of a 6-year programme

This study was aimed to describe the outcomes of a hypertension treatment programme in two outpatient clinics in Cambodia. We determined proportions of patients who met the optimal targets for blood pressure (BP) control and assessed the evolution of mean systolic and diastolic BP (SBP/DBP) over time. Multivariate analyses were used to identify predictors of BP decrease and risk factors for LTFU. A total of 2858 patients were enrolled between March 2002 and June 2008 of whom 69.2% were female, 30.5% were aged >/=64years and 32.6% were diabetic. The median follow-up time was 600 days. By the end of 2008, 1642 (57.4%) were alive-in-care, 8 (0.3%) had died and 1208 (42.3%) were lost to follow-up. On admission, mean SBP and DBP were 162 and 94 mm Hg, respectively. Among the patients treated, a significant SBP reduction of 26.8 mm Hg (95% CI: 28.4-25.3) was observed at 6 months. Overall, 36.5% of patients reached the BP targets at 24 months. The number of young adults, non-overweight patients and non-diabetics reaching the BP targets was more. Older age (>64 years), uncontrolled DBP (>/=90 mm Hg) on last consultation and coming late for the last consultation were associated with LTFU, whereas non-diabetic patients were 1.5 times more likely to default than diabetics (95% CI: 1.3-1.7). Although the definite magnitude of the BP decrease due to antihypertension medication over time cannot be assessed definitely without a control group, our results suggest that BP reduction can be obtained with essential hypertension treatment in a large-scale programme in a resource-limited setting

Interphase chromosome positioning in in vitro porcine cells and ex vivo porcine tissues

Copyright @ 2012 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and 85 reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The article was made available through the Brunel University Open Access Publishing Fund.BACKGROUND: In interphase nuclei of a wide range of species chromosomes are organised into their own specific locations termed territories. These chromosome territories are non-randomly positioned in nuclei which is believed to be related to a spatial aspect of regulatory control over gene expression. In this study we have adopted the pig as a model in which to study interphase chromosome positioning and follows on from other studies from our group of using pig cells and tissues to study interphase genome re-positioning during differentiation. The pig is an important model organism both economically and as a closely related species to study human disease models. This is why great efforts have been made to accomplish the full genome sequence in the last decade. RESULTS: This study has positioned most of the porcine chromosomes in in vitro cultured adult and embryonic fibroblasts, early passage stromal derived mesenchymal stem cells and lymphocytes. The study is further expanded to position four chromosomes in ex vivo tissue derived from pig kidney, lung and brain. CONCLUSIONS: It was concluded that porcine chromosomes are also non-randomly positioned within interphase nuclei with few major differences in chromosome position in interphase nuclei between different cell and tissue types. There were also no differences between preferred nuclear location of chromosomes in in vitro cultured cells as compared to cells in tissue sections. Using a number of analyses to ascertain by what criteria porcine chromosomes were positioned in interphase nuclei; we found a correlation with DNA content.This study is partly supported by Sygen International PLC

Children’s discourses of natural spaces: considerations for children’s subjective well-being

Based on the evidence provided in the literature, it is manifest that increased time spent in nature increases various aspects of children’s well-being. Using discourse analysis on focus group interviews with 28 children between the ages of 12 and 14 years old from three socio-economically diverse communities in the Western Cape of South Africa, the study aimed to explore how children construct and assign meaning to natural spaces. More specifically the study explored how children use specific discursive resources and repertoires to construct and assign meaning to their engagement with natural spaces, and the extent to which this influences their subjective well-being. Several pertinent discourses emerged from the participants’ accounts within four themes of: Safety and natural spaces, Appreciation for natural spaces, Degradation of Nature: Thinking environmentally, acting pro-environmentally, and Natural spaces and children’s subjective well-being. The study highlights the critical role that children’s engagement in natural spaces has on their subjective well-being, and how these benefits can be harnessed to better children’s overall quality of life.IS

Essential versus accessory aspects of cell death: recommendations of the NCCD 2015

Cells exposed to extreme physicochemical or mechanical stimuli die in an uncontrollable manner, as a result of their immediate structural breakdown. Such an unavoidable variant of cellular demise is generally referred to as ‘accidental cell death’ (ACD). In most settings, however, cell death is initiated by a genetically encoded apparatus, correlating with the fact that its course can be altered by pharmacologic or genetic interventions. ‘Regulated cell death’ (RCD) can occur as part of physiologic programs or can be activated once adaptive responses to perturbations of the extracellular or intracellular microenvironment fail. The biochemical phenomena that accompany RCD may be harnessed to classify it into a few subtypes, which often (but not always) exhibit stereotyped morphologic features. Nonetheless, efficiently inhibiting the processes that are commonly thought to cause RCD, such as the activation of executioner caspases in the course of apoptosis, does not exert true cytoprotective effects in the mammalian system, but simply alters the kinetics of cellular demise as it shifts its morphologic and biochemical correlates. Conversely, bona fide cytoprotection can be achieved by inhibiting the transduction of lethal signals in the early phases of the process, when adaptive responses are still operational. Thus, the mechanisms that truly execute RCD may be less understood, less inhibitable and perhaps more homogeneous than previously thought. Here, the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death formulates a set of recommendations to help scientists and researchers to discriminate between essential and accessory aspects of cell death