An Approach to Risk Quantification Based on Pseudo-Random Failure Rates

3rd IFAC Workshop on Advanced Maintenance Engineering, Services and Technology AMEST 2016: Biarritz, France, 19—21 October 2016. - IFAC-PapersOnLine, Volume 49, Issue 28, 2016, Pages 179-184The risk quantification is one of the most critical areas in asset management (AM). The relevant information from the traditional models can be shown in risk matrices that represent a static picture of the risk levels and are according to its frequency and its impact (consequences). These models are used in a wide spectrum of knowledge domains. In this paper, we describe a quantitative model using the reliability and failure probability (as frequency in our risk model), and the preventive and corrective costs (as consequences in our risk model). The challenge here will be the treatment of reliability based on failure rate values with different e random distributions (normal, triangular etc.) according to the available data. These possible values will enable the simulation of the behavior of the system in terms of reliability and, consequently, to use this information for making a risk based analysis. The traditional risk-cost-benefit models applied to maintenance usually provides an optimum for the time to apply a preventive task. But in this case, a time window is obtained showing minimum and maximum thresholds for the best time to apply the preventive maintenance task, together with other interesting statistics useful for the improvement of complex industrial asset management

Development of a short form of Mini-Mental State Examination for the screening of dementia in older adults with a memory complaint: a case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Primary care physicians need a brief and accurate screening test of dementia. The objective of this study was to determine whether a short form of Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) was as accurate as the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in screening dementia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on case control design study, SMMSE and MMSE were assessed in 184 community-dwelling older adults (mean age 81.3 ± 6.5 years, 71.7% women) with memory complaint sent by their primary care physician to a memory clinic. Included participants were separated into two groups: cognitively healthy individuals and demented individuals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The trade-off between sensitivity and specificity of the SMMSE for clinically diagnosed dementia was 4. Based on the cut-off value ≤ 4 for SMMSE and a cut-off value ≤ 24 for MMSE, the sensitivity of both tests was similar (89.5% for SMMSE versus 90.0% for MMSE), whereas the specificity, the positive predictive values (PPV) and the negative predictive values (NPV) were higher for SMMSE compared to MMSE (85.4 versus 75.5% for specificity; 95.5% versus 92.8% for PPV; 70.0 versus 68.9 for NPV). The positive and negative Likehood Ratio (LR) of SMMSE were higher than those of MMSE (respectively, 6.1 versus 3.7; 8.1 versus 7.7). In addition, odds ratio (OR) for dementia was higher for the SMMSE compared to the MMSE (OR = 49.8 with 95% confident interval (CI) [18.0; 137.8] versus OR = 28.6 with 95% CI [11.6; 70.3]).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>SMMSE seems to be an efficient short screening test for dementia among community-dwelling older adults with a memory complaint. Further research is needed to confirm its predictive values among unselected primary care older patients.</p

Status of the “Mangrove tunicate” Ecteinascidia turbinata (Ascidiacea: Perophoridae) in the Mediterranean Sea

The ascidian Ecteinascidia turbinata is reported from Maltese waters for the first time. Mature colonies were recorded on artificial substrata at two different sites (and on natural substrata at one of these), 4 km apart, during the summer months. The appearance of this ascidian is expected to be seasonal as the winter temperature in Malta may fall below that required for the maintenance of zooid growth. A second species, E. moorei, which was described in 1890 is here confirmed to be the same as E. turbinata, meaning that the species has existed in the Mediterranean since at least ~1880. The possibility that the Mediterranean population is a relic one from warmer periods cannot yet be excluded, so it is best described as being cryptogenic. The species appears to be spreading slowly, perhaps as a result of the rise in surface sea temperature. The Maltese sites offer an opportunity to monitor the species as they are accessible dive sites. This will allow assessment of whether this species remains restricted to these sites, or if it spreads perhaps to impact other species

Scintillator-based ion beam profiler for diagnosing laser-accelerated ion beams

Next generation intense, short-pulse laser facilities require new high repetition rate diagnostics for the detection of ionizing radiation. We have designed a new scintillator-based ion beam profiler capable of measuring the ion beam transverse profile for a number of discrete energy ranges. The optical response and emission characteristics of four common plastic scintillators has been investigated for a range of proton energies and fluxes. The scintillator light output (for 1 MeV > Ep < 28 MeV) was found to have a non-linear scaling with proton energy but a linear response to incident flux. Initial measurements with a prototype diagnostic have been successful, although further calibration work is required to characterize the total system response and limitations under the high flux, short pulse duration conditions of a typical high intensity laser-plasma interaction

Indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with acute respiratory infection despite heterogeneous vaccine coverage: an observational study in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

INTRODUCTION: Empiric data on indirect (herd) effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in settings with low or heterogeneous PCV coverage are limited. The indirect effects of PCV, which benefits both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals, are mediated by reductions in vaccine-type (VT) carriage (a prerequisite for disease). The aim of this study among hospitalised children in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is to determine the effectiveness of a 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against VT pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage (direct effects) and the association between village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage (indirect effects). METHODS: Pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage surveillance commenced in December 2013, shortly after PCV13 introduction (October 2013). We recruited and swabbed children aged 2-59 months admitted to hospital with acute respiratory infection. Pneumococci were detected using lytA quantitative real-time PCR and serotyped using microarray. PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage were determined using written immunisation records. Associations between both PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage were calculated using generalised estimating equations, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: We enrolled 1423 participants and determined PCV13 coverage for 368 villages (269 863 children aged under 5 years). By 2017, median village-level vaccine coverage reached 37.5%, however, the IQR indicated wide variation among villages (24.1-56.4). Both receipt of PCV13 and the level of PCV13 coverage were independently associated with a reduced odds of VT carriage: adjusted PCV13 effectiveness was 38.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 60.0%; p=0.032); and for each per cent increase in PCV13 coverage, the estimated odds of VT carriage decreased by 1.1% (95% CI 0.0% to 2.2%; p=0.056). After adjustment, VT carriage decreased from 20.0% to 12.8% as PCV13 coverage increased from zero to 60% among under 5. CONCLUSIONS: Despite marked heterogeneity in PCV13 coverage, we found evidence of indirect effects in Lao PDR. Individual vaccination with PCV13 was effective against VT carriage

Elderly persons in the risk zone. Design of a multidimensional, health-promoting, randomised three-armed controlled trial for "prefrail" people of 80+ years living at home

Background The very old (80+) are often described as a "frail" group that is particularly exposed to diseases and functional disability. They are at great risk of losing the ability to manage their activities of daily living independently. A health-promoting intervention programme might prevent or delay dependence in activities of daily life and the development of functional decline. Studies have shown that those who benefit most from a health-promoting and disease-preventive programme are persons with no, or discrete, activity restrictions. The three-armed study "Elderly in the risk zone" is designed to evaluate if multi-dimensional and multi-professional educational senior meetings are more effective than preventive home visits, and if it is possible to prevent or delay deterioration if an intervention is made when the persons are not so frail. In this paper the study design, the intervention and the outcome measures as well as the baseline characteristics of the study participants are presented. Methods/Design The study is a randomised three-armed single-blind controlled trial with follow-ups 3 months, 1 and 2 years. The study group should comprise a representative sample of pre-frail 80-year old persons still living at home in two municipalities of Gothenburg. To allow for drop-outs, it was estimated that a total of about 450 persons would need to be included in the study. The participants should live in their ordinary housing and not be dependent on the municipal home help service or care. Further, they should be independent of help from another person in activities of daily living and be cognitively intact, having a score of 25 or higher as assessed with the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). Discussion We believe that the design of the study, the randomisation procedure, outcome measurements and the study protocol meetings should ensure the quality of the study. Furthermore, the multi-dimensionality of the intervention, the involvement of both the professionals and the senior citizens in the planning of the intervention should have the potential to effectively target the heterogeneous needs of the elderly. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT0087705

Modularization of biochemical networks based on classification of Petri net t-invariants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Structural analysis of biochemical networks is a growing field in bioinformatics and systems biology. The availability of an increasing amount of biological data from molecular biological networks promises a deeper understanding but confronts researchers with the problem of combinatorial explosion. The amount of qualitative network data is growing much faster than the amount of quantitative data, such as enzyme kinetics. In many cases it is even impossible to measure quantitative data because of limitations of experimental methods, or for ethical reasons. Thus, a huge amount of qualitative data, such as interaction data, is available, but it was not sufficiently used for modeling purposes, until now. New approaches have been developed, but the complexity of data often limits the application of many of the methods. Biochemical Petri nets make it possible to explore static and dynamic qualitative system properties. One Petri net approach is model validation based on the computation of the system's invariant properties, focusing on t-invariants. T-invariants correspond to subnetworks, which describe the basic system behavior.</p> <p>With increasing system complexity, the basic behavior can only be expressed by a huge number of t-invariants. According to our validation criteria for biochemical Petri nets, the necessary verification of the biological meaning, by interpreting each subnetwork (t-invariant) manually, is not possible anymore. Thus, an automated, biologically meaningful classification would be helpful in analyzing t-invariants, and supporting the understanding of the basic behavior of the considered biological system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Here, we introduce a new approach to automatically classify t-invariants to cope with network complexity. We apply clustering techniques such as UPGMA, Complete Linkage, Single Linkage, and Neighbor Joining in combination with different distance measures to get biologically meaningful clusters (t-clusters), which can be interpreted as modules. To find the optimal number of t-clusters to consider for interpretation, the cluster validity measure, Silhouette Width, is applied.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We considered two different case studies as examples: a small signal transduction pathway (pheromone response pathway in <it>Saccharomyces cerevisiae</it>) and a medium-sized gene regulatory network (gene regulation of Duchenne muscular dystrophy). We automatically classified the t-invariants into functionally distinct t-clusters, which could be interpreted biologically as functional modules in the network. We found differences in the suitability of the various distance measures as well as the clustering methods. In terms of a biologically meaningful classification of t-invariants, the best results are obtained using the Tanimoto distance measure. Considering clustering methods, the obtained results suggest that UPGMA and Complete Linkage are suitable for clustering t-invariants with respect to the biological interpretability.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We propose a new approach for the biological classification of Petri net t-invariants based on cluster analysis. Due to the biologically meaningful data reduction and structuring of network processes, large sets of t-invariants can be evaluated, allowing for model validation of qualitative biochemical Petri nets. This approach can also be applied to elementary mode analysis.</p

Type II Heat-Labile Enterotoxins from 50 Diverse Escherichia coli Isolates Belong Almost Exclusively to the LT-IIc Family and May Be Prophage Encoded

Some enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) produce a type II heat-labile enterotoxin (LT-II) that activates adenylate cyclase in susceptible cells but is not neutralized by antisera against cholera toxin or type I heat-labile enterotoxin (LT-I). LT-I variants encoded by plasmids in ETEC from humans and pigs have amino acid sequences that are ≥95% identical. In contrast, LT-II toxins are chromosomally encoded and are much more diverse. Early studies characterized LT-IIa and LT-IIb variants, but a novel LT-IIc was reported recently. Here we characterized the LT-II encoding loci from 48 additional ETEC isolates. Two encoded LT-IIa, none encoded LT-IIb, and 46 encoded highly related variants of LT-IIc. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the predicted LT-IIc toxins encoded by these loci could be assigned to 6 subgroups. The loci corresponding to individual toxins within each subgroup had DNA sequences that were more than 99% identical. The LT-IIc subgroups appear to have arisen by multiple recombinational events between progenitor loci encoding LT-IIc1- and LT-IIc3-like variants. All loci from representative isolates encoding the LT-IIa, LT-IIb, and each subgroup of LT-IIc enterotoxins are preceded by highly-related genes that are between 80 and 93% identical to predicted phage lysozyme genes. DNA sequences immediately following the B genes differ considerably between toxin subgroups, but all are most closely related to genomic sequences found in predicted prophages. Together these data suggest that the LT-II loci are inserted into lambdoid type prophages that may or may not be infectious. These findings raise the possibility that production of LT-II enterotoxins by ETEC may be determined by phage conversion and may be activated by induction of prophage, in a manner similar to control of production of Shiga-like toxins by converting phages in isolates of enterohemmorhagic E. coli