Inventory and changes of rock glacier creep speeds in Ile Alatau and Kungöy Ala-Too, northern Tien Shan, since the 1950s

This research has been supported by the European Research Council (ICEMASS (grant no. 320816)) and the European Space Agency (grant nos. 40001161196/15/I-NB, 4000123681/18/I-NB, 4000109873/14/I-NB, 4000127593/19/I-NS, and 4000127656/19/NL/FF/gp). This work was funded by the ESA projects GlobPermafrost (40001161196/15/I-NB), Permafrost_CCI (4000123681/18/I-NB), and Glaciers_CCI (4000109873/14/I-NB, 4000127593/19/I-NS) and the ESA EarthExplorer10 Mission Advisory Group (4000127656/19/NL/FF/gp) as well as by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement no. 320816.Spatio-temporal patterns related to the viscous creep in perennially frozen sediments of rock glaciers in cold mountains have rarely been studied outside the densely populated European Alps. This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of rock glacier movement in the Ile Alatau and Kungöy Ala-Too mountain ranges, northern Tien Shan, a region with particularly large and fast rock glaciers. Over the study region of more than 3000 km2, an inventory of slope movements was constructed using a large number of radar interferograms and high-resolution optical imagery. The inventory includes more than 900 landforms, of which around 550 were interpreted as rock glaciers. Out of the active rock glaciers inventoried, 45 are characterized by a rate of motion exceeding 100 cm/a. From these fast rock glaciers we selected six (Gorodetzky, Morenny, Archaly, Ordzhonikidze, Karakoram, and Kugalan Tash) and studied them in more detail using offset tracking between repeat aerial images and historical and modern high-resolution optical satellite data. Two of these rock glaciers showed a steady increase in decadal surface velocities from the 1950s onwards, with speeds being roughly 2 to 4 times higher in recent years compared to the 1950s and 1960s. Three rock glaciers showed similar accelerations over the last 1 to 2 decades but also phases of increased speeds in the 1960s. This development indicates a possible significant increase in current sediment and ice fluxes through rock glaciers and implies that their material transport in the region might gain geomorphodynamic importance relative to material transport by glaciers, assuming the latter decreases together with the regional glacier shrinkage. The study demonstrates how air and satellite image archives are exploited to construct one of the longest decennial times series of rock glacier speeds currently available. Our results are in line with findings from Europe about rock glacier speeds increasing with atmospheric warming and underline local variability of such an overall response.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Sedimentological characterization of Antarctic moraines using UAVs and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry

In glacial environments particle-size analysis of moraines provides insights into clast origin, transport history, depositional mechanism and processes of reworking. Traditional methods for grain-size classification are labour-intensive, physically intrusive and are limited to patch-scale (1m2) observation. We develop emerging, high-resolution ground- and unmanned aerial vehicle-based ‘Structure-from-Motion’ (UAV-SfM) photogrammetry to recover grain-size information across an moraine surface in the Heritage Range, Antarctica. SfM data products were benchmarked against equivalent datasets acquired using terrestrial laser scanning, and were found to be accurate to within 1.7 and 50mm for patch- and site-scale modelling, respectively. Grain-size distributions were obtained through digital grain classification, or ‘photo-sieving’, of patch-scale SfM orthoimagery. Photo-sieved distributions were accurate to <2mm compared to control distributions derived from dry sieving. A relationship between patch-scale median grain size and the standard deviation of local surface elevations was applied to a site-scale UAV-SfM model to facilitate upscaling and the production of a spatially continuous map of the median grain size across a 0.3 km2 area of moraine. This highly automated workflow for site scale sedimentological characterization eliminates much of the subjectivity associated with traditional methods and forms a sound basis for subsequent glaciological process interpretation and analysis

High-density Mapping Guided Pulmonary Vein Isolation for Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation-Two-year clinical outcome of a single center experience

Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) as interventional treatment for atrial fibrillation (AF) aims to eliminate arrhythmogenic triggers from the PVs. Improved signal detection facilitating a more robust electrical isolation might be associated with a better outcome. This retrospective cohort study compared PVI procedures using a novel high-density mapping system (HDM) with improved signal detection vs. age-and sex-matched PVIs using a conventional 3D mapping system (COM). Endpoints comprised freedom from AF and procedural parameters. In total, 108 patients (mean age 63.9 +/- 11.2 years, 56.5% male, 50.9% paroxysmal AF) were included (n = 54 patients/group). Our analysis revealed that HDM was not superior regarding freedom from AF (mean follow-up of 494.7 +/- 26.2 days), with one- and two-year AF recurrence rates of 38.9%/46.5% (HDM) and 38.9%/42.2% (COM), respectively. HDM was associated with reduction in fluoroscopy times (18.8 +/- 10.6 vs. 29.8 +/- 13.4 min;p < 0.01) and total radiation dose (866.0 +/- 1003.3 vs. 1731.2 +/- 1978.4 cGy;p < 0.01) compared to the COM group. HDM was equivalent but not superior to COM with respect to clinical outcome after PVI and resulted in reduced fluoroscopy time and radiation exposure. These results suggest that HDM-guided PVI is effective and safe for AF ablation. Potential benefits in comparison to conventional mapping systems, e.g. arrhythmia recurrence rates, have to be addressed in randomized trials

Multi-decadal mass balance series of three Kyrgyz glaciers inferred from modelling constrained with repeated snow line observations

Glacier surface mass balance observations in the Tien Shan and Pamir are relatively sparse and often discontinuous. Nevertheless, glaciers are one of the most important components of the high-mountain cryosphere in the region as they strongly influence water availability in the arid, continental and intensely populated downstream areas. This study provides reliable and continuous surface mass balance series for selected glaciers located in the Tien Shan and Pamir-Alay. By cross-validating the results of three independent methods, we reconstructed the mass balance of the three benchmark glaciers, Abramov, Golubin and Glacier no. 354 for the past 2 decades. By applying different approaches, it was possible to compensate for the limitations and shortcomings of each individual method. This study proposes the use of transient snow line observations throughout the melt season obtained from satellite optical imagery and terrestrial automatic cameras. By combining modelling with remotely acquired information on summer snow depletion, it was possible to infer glacier mass changes for unmeasured years. The model is initialized with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at automatic weather stations in the vicinity of the glacier or with adjusted data from climate reanalysis products. Multi-annual mass changes based on high-resolution digital elevation models and in situ glaciological surveys were used to validate the results for the investigated glaciers. Substantial surface mass loss was confirmed for the three studied glaciers by all three methods, ranging from -0.30±0.19 to -0.41±0.33mw.e. yr-1 over the 2004-2016 period. Our results indicate that integration of snow line observations into mass balance modelling significantly narrows the uncertainty ranges of the estimates. Hence, this highlights the potential of the methodology for application to unmonitored glaciers at larger scales for which no direct measurements are available.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A decreasing glacier mass balance gradient from the edge of the Upper Tarim Basin to the Karakoram during 2000-2014

In contrast to the glacier mass losses observed at other locations around the world, some glaciers in the High Mountains of Asia appear to have gained mass in recent decades. However, changes in digital elevation models indicate that glaciers in Karakoram and Pamir have gained mass, while recent laser altimetry data indicate mass gain centred on West Kunlun. Here, we obtain results that are essentially consistent with those from altimetry, but with two-dimensional observations and higher resolution. We produced elevation models using radar interferometry applied to bistatic data gathered between 2011 and 2014 and compared them to a model produced from bistatic data collected in 2000. The glaciers in West Kunlun, Eastern Pamir and the northern part of Karakoram experienced a clear mass gain of 0.043 ± 0.078~0.363 ± 0.065 m w.e. yr−1. The Karakoram showed a near-stable mass balance in its western part (−0.020 ± 0.064 m w.e. yr−1), while the Eastern Karakoram showed mass loss (−0.101 ± 0.058 m w.e. yr−1). Significant positive glacier mass balances are noted along the edge of the Upper Tarim Basin and indicate a decreasing gradient from northeast to southwest

Atrial fibrillation genetic risk differentiates cardioembolic stroke from other stroke subtypes

Objective We sought to assess whether genetic risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) can explain cardioembolic stroke risk. Methods We evaluated genetic correlations between a previous genetic study of AF and AF in the presence of cardioembolic stroke using genome-wide genotypes from the Stroke Genetics Network (N = 3,190 AF cases, 3,000 cardioembolic stroke cases, and 28,026 referents). We tested whether a previously validated AF polygenic risk score (PRS) associated with cardioembolic and other stroke subtypes after accounting for AF clinical risk factors. Results We observed a strong correlation between previously reported genetic risk for AF, AF in the presence of stroke, and cardioembolic stroke (Pearson r = 0.77 and 0.76, respectively, across SNPs with p 0.1). Conclusion: s Genetic risk of AF is associated with cardioembolic stroke, independent of clinical risk factors. Studies are warranted to determine whether AF genetic risk can serve as a biomarker for strokes caused by AF

Governance for Earth system tipping points – A research agenda

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