A modelling study of the impact of cirrus clouds on the moisture budget of the upper troposphere

We present a modelling study of the effect of cirrus clouds on the moisture budget of the layer wherein the cloud formed. Our framework simplifies many aspects of cloud microphysics and collapses the problem of sedimentation onto a 0-dimensional box model, but retains essential feedbacks between saturation mixing ratio, particle growth, and water removal through particle sedimentation. The water budget is described by two coupled first-order differential equations for dimensionless particle number density and saturation point temperature, where the parameters defining the system (layer depth, reference temperature, amplitude and time scale of temperature perturbation and inital particle number density, which may or may not be a function of reference temperature and cooling rate) are encapsulated in a single coefficient. This allows us to scale the results to a broad range of atmospheric conditions, and to test sensitivities. Results of the moisture budget calculations are presented for a range of atmospheric conditions (<i>T</i>: 238&ndash;205 K; <i>p</i>: 325&ndash;180 hPa) and a range of time scales &tau;_T of the temperature perturbation that induces the cloud formation. The cirrus clouds are found to efficiently remove water for &tau;_T longer than a few hours, with longer perturbations (&tau;_T&#x2273;10 h) required at lower temperatures (<i>T</i>&#x2272;210 K). Conversely, we find that temperature perturbations of duration order 1 h and less (a typical timescale for e.g., gravity waves) do not efficiently dehydrate over most of the upper troposphere. A consequence is that (for particle densities typical of current cirrus clouds) the assumption of complete dehydration to the saturation mixing ratio may yield valid predictions for upper tropospheric moisture distributions if it is based on the large scale temperature field, but this assumption is not necessarily valid if it is based on smaller scale temperature fields

IGCM4: a fast, parallel and flexible intermediate climate model

The IGCM4 (Intermediate Global Circulation Model version 4) is a global spectral primitive equation climate model whose predecessors have extensively been used in areas such as climate research, process modelling and atmospheric dynamics. The IGCM4’s niche and utility lies in its speed and flexibility allied with the complexity of a primitive equation climate model. Moist processes such as clouds, evaporation, atmospheric radiation and soil moisture are simulated in the model, though in a simplified manner compared to state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs). IGCM4 is a parallelised model, enabling both very long integrations to be conducted and the effects of higher resolutions to be explored. It has also undergone changes such as alterations to the cloud and surface processes and the addition of gravity wave drag. These changes have resulted in a significant improvement to the IGCM’s representation of the mean climate as well as its representation of stratospheric processes such as sudden stratospheric warmings. The IGCM4’s physical changes and climatology are described in this paper

Non-Inferiority Trials in Surgical Oncology

The classical randomized controlled clinical trial is designed to prove superiority of an investigational therapy over an established therapy or placebo (here referred to as "superiority trial”). Although the randomized controlled superiority trial has its well-grounded role, clinical trials of non-inferiority are equally important in the advance of medical science. Non-inferiority trials test whether a new intervention is as good as a standard treatment with respect to curing the illness (e.g., overall survival) while offering other benefits over the standard therapy, such as lower toxicity, better side-effect profile, improved ease of administration, or reduced costs. The evaluation of non-inferiority is critical in many settings. In surgical oncology, for instance, treatments often combine advantages (e.g., survival benefit) with disadvantages (e.g., high post-operative morbidity due to extensive surgery, considerable toxic effects of an aggressive chemotherapy regimen). The various aspects of different therapeutic strategies may make a treatment decision difficult, requiring a non-inferiority trial to quantify risks and benefits. However, despite their great importance in clinical cancer research, the concept, design, and objectives of non-inferiority trials remain poorly understood in the surgical community. The goal of this review is to discuss the principles, strengths, and challenges of non-inferiority trials and introduce this highly relevant topic to the surgical reader, using examples from the field of surgical oncolog

Stratospheric sudden warmings in an idealized GCM

PublishedJournal ArticleAn idealized general circulation model (GCM) with an analytically described Newtonian cooling term is employed to study the occurrence rate of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) over a wide range of parameters. In particular, the sensitivity of the SSW occurrence rates to orographic forcing and both relaxation temperature and damping rate is evaluated. The stronger the orographic forcing and the weaker the radiative forcing (in both temperature and damping rate), the higher the SSW frequency. The separate effects of the damping rates at low and high latitudes are somewhat more complex. Generally, lower damping rates result in higher SSW frequency. However, if the low- and high-latitude damping rates are not the same, SSW frequency tends to be most sensitive to a fractional change in the lower of the two damping rates. In addition, the effect of the damping rates on the stratospheric residual circulation is investigated. It is found that higher high-latitude damping rate results in deeper but narrower circulation, whereas higher low-latitude damping rates cause strengthening of the stream function in the tropical midstratosphere to upper stratosphere. Finally, the relation between easily measured and compared climatological fields and the SSW occurrence rate is determined. The average stratospheric polar zonal mean zonal wind shows a strong anticorrelation with the SSW frequency. In the troposphere, there is a high correlation between the meridional temperature gradient and SSW frequency, suggesting that the strength of synoptic activity in the troposphere may be an important influence on SSW occurrence.National Science FoundationSwiss National Science Foundatio

Horizontal transport affecting trace gas seasonality in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL)

We analyze horizontal transport from midlatitudes into the tropics (in-mixing) and its impact on seasonal variations of ozone, carbon monoxide and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). For this purpose, we use three-dimensional backward trajectories, driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim winds, and a conceptual one-dimensional model of the chemical composition of the TTL. We find that the fraction of in-mixed midlatitude air shows an annual cycle with maximum during NH summer, resulting from the superposition of two inversely phased annual cycles for in-mixing from the NH and SH, respectively. In-mixing is driven by the monsoonal upper-level anticyclonic circulations. This circulation pattern is dominated by the Southeast Asian summer monsoon and, correspondingly, in-mixing shows an annual cycle. The impact of in-mixing on TTL mixing ratios depends on the in-mixed fraction of midlatitude air and on the meridional gradient of the particular species. For CO the meridional gradient and consequently the effect of in-mixing is weak. For water vapor, in-mixing effects are negligible. For ozone, the meridional gradient is large and the contribution of in-mixing to the ozone maximum during NH summer is about 50%. This in-mixing contribution is not sensitive to the tropical ascent velocity, which is about 40% too fast in ERA-Interim. As photochemically produced ozone in the TTL shows no distinct summer maximum, the ozone annual anomaly in the upper TTL turns out to be mainly forced by in-mixing of ozone-rich extratropical air during NH summer

Trend in ice moistening the stratosphere – constraints from isotope data of water and methane

Water plays a major role in the chemistry and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Air enters the stratosphere predominantly in the tropics, where the very low temperatures around the tropopause constrain water vapour mixing ratios to a few parts per million. Observations of stratospheric water vapour show a large positive long-term trend, which can not be explained by change in tropopause temperatures. Trends in the partitioning between vapour and ice of water entering the stratosphere have been suggested to resolve this conundrum. We present measurements of stratospheric H_(2)O, HDO, CH_4 and CH_(3)D in the period 1991–2007 to evaluate this hypothesis. Because of fractionation processes during phase changes, the hydrogen isotopic composition of H_(2)O is a sensitive indicator of changes in the partitioning of vapour and ice. We find that the seasonal variations of H_(2)O are mirrored in the variation of the ratio of HDO to H_(2)O with a slope of the correlation consistent with water entering the stratosphere mainly as vapour. The variability in the fractionation over the entire observation period is well explained by variations in H_(2)O. The isotopic data allow concluding that the trend in ice arising from particulate water is no more than (0.01±0.13) ppmv/decade in the observation period. Our observations suggest that between 1991 and 2007 the contribution from changes in particulate water transported through the tropopause plays only a minor role in altering in the amount of water entering the stratosphere

Trends and variability of midlatitude stratospheric water vapour deduced from the re-evaluated Boulder balloon series and HALOE

This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE). Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980&amp;ndash;2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (&amp;asymp;14 to 25 km), the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3&amp;plusmn;0.3 and 0.7&amp;plusmn;0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between &amp;minus;0.2&amp;plusmn;0.3 and 1.0&amp;plusmn;0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from &amp;minus;1.1&amp;plusmn;0.2 to &amp;minus;0.1&amp;plusmn;0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here

Major Vascular Resection and Prosthetic Replacement for Retroperitoneal Tumors

Introduction: Involvement of major vascular structures has been considered a limiting factor for resecting advanced tumors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the outcome after concomitant retroperitoneal tumor and vascular resection with prosthetic replacement of the aorta/vena cava. Methods: The authors reviewed a 5-year series of eight patients with a median age of 50 years (range 11-68 years) who had undergone resection of a retroperitoneal tumor and concomitant resection and replacement of the abdominal aorta, inferior vena cava, or both. The histologic diagnoses were sarcoma (five patients), teratoma (one), transitional cell carcinoma (one), and ganglioneuroma (one). The main outcome measures were early (< 30 days) and late (≥ 30 days) surgical morbidity and mortality. Secondary endpoints were vascular graft patency and tumor-free survival. Two patients underwent combined graft replacement of the aorta and vena cava. Single aortic and vena cava graft replacement were each done in three patients. Results: Two patients showed early surgical morbidity necessitating reoperation for a thrombotic graft occlusion. No patient died during the early course of the follow-up. During a median follow-up of 14 months (range 1-56 months), two patients had late surgical morbidity. The median tumor-free survival for patients with malignancy was 14 months (range 1-54 months). One patient developed locoregional tumor recurrence, and two developed distant metastases. The median survival for patients with malignancy was 14 months (range 1-60 months). Conclusions: An aggressive surgical approach for otherwise unresectable retroperitoneal tumors with vascular resection and prosthetic vascular replacement is justified in selected cases and has acceptable morbidity and mortalit