The Many Faces of Fear: Comparing the Pathways and Impacts of Nonconsumptive Predator Effects on Prey Populations

Background: Most ecological models assume that predator and prey populations interact solely through consumption: predators reduce prey densities by killing and consuming individual prey. However, predators can also reduce prey densities by forcing prey to adopt costly defensive strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings: We build on a simple Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model to provide a heuristic tool for distinguishing between the demographic effects of consumption (consumptive effects) and of anti-predator defenses (nonconsumptive effects), and for distinguishing among the multiple mechanisms by which anti-predator defenses might reduce prey population growth rates. We illustrate these alternative pathways for nonconsumptive effects with selected empirical examples, and use a meta-analysis of published literature to estimate the mean effect size of each pathway. Overall, predation risk tends to have a much larger impact on prey foraging behavior than measures of growth, survivorship, or fecundity. Conclusions/Significance: While our model provides a concise framework for understanding the many potential NCE pathways and their relationships to each other, our results confirm empirical research showing that prey are able to partially compensate for changes in energy income, mitigating the fitness effects of defensive changes in time budgets. Distinguishing the many facets of nonconsumptive effects raises some novel questions, and will help guide both empirica

Merging Resource Availability with Isotope Mixing Models: The Role of Neutral Interaction Assumptions

Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.National Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-0608178]U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyDepartment of EducationSigma XiUniversity of ChicagoFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP)(CAPES) Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superiori

Evaluating the Quality of Research into a Single Prognostic Biomarker: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 83 Studies of C-Reactive Protein in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background Systematic evaluations of the quality of research on a single prognostic biomarker are rare. We sought to evaluate the quality of prognostic research evidence for the association of C-reactive protein (CRP) with fatal and nonfatal events among patients with stable coronary disease. Methods and Findings We searched MEDLINE (1966 to 2009) and EMBASE (1980 to 2009) and selected prospective studies of patients with stable coronary disease, reporting a relative risk for the association of CRP with death and nonfatal cardiovascular events. We included 83 studies, reporting 61,684 patients and 6,485 outcome events. No study reported a prespecified statistical analysis protocol; only two studies reported the time elapsed (in months or years) between initial presentation of symptomatic coronary disease and inclusion in the study. Studies reported a median of seven items (of 17) from the REMARK reporting guidelines, with no evidence of change over time. The pooled relative risk for the top versus bottom third of CRP distribution was 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–2.17), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 79.5). Only 13 studies adjusted for conventional risk factors (age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol) and these had a relative risk of 1.65 (95% CI 1.39–1.96), I2 = 33.7. Studies reported ten different ways of comparing CRP values, with weaker relative risks for those based on continuous measures. Adjusting for publication bias (for which there was strong evidence, Egger's p<0.001) using a validated method reduced the relative risk to 1.19 (95% CI 1.13–1.25). Only two studies reported a measure of discrimination (c-statistic). In 20 studies the detection rate for subsequent events could be calculated and was 31% for a 10% false positive rate, and the calculated pooled c-statistic was 0.61 (0.57–0.66). Conclusion Multiple types of reporting bias, and publication bias, make the magnitude of any independent association between CRP and prognosis among patients with stable coronary disease sufficiently uncertain that no clinical practice recommendations can be made. Publication of prespecified statistical analytic protocols and prospective registration of studies, among other measures, might help improve the quality of prognostic biomarker research

Telephone Triage Service Data for Detection of Influenza-Like Illness

Background: Surveillance for influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) is important for guiding public health prevention programs to mitigate the morbidity and mortality caused by influenza, including pandemic influenza. Nontraditional sources of data for influenza and ILI surveillance are of interest to public health authorities if their validity can be established. Methods/Principal Findings: National telephone triage call data were collected through automated means for purposes of syndromic surveillance. For the 17 states with at least 500,000 inhabitants eligible to use the telephone triage services, call volume for respiratory syndrome was compared to CDC weekly number of influenza isolates and percentage of visits to sentinel providers for ILI. The degree to which the call data were correlated with either CDC viral isolates or sentinel provider percentage ILI data was highly variable among states. Conclusions: Telephone triage data in the U.S. are patchy in coverage and therefore not a reliable source of ILI surveillance data on a national scale. However, in states displaying a higher correlation between the call data and the CDC data, call data may be useful as an adjunct to state-level surveillance data, for example at times when sentinel surveillance is not in operation or in areas where sentinel provider coverage is considered insufficient. Sufficient population coverage, a specific ILI syndrome definition, and the use of a threshold of percentage of calls that are for ILI would likely improve the utility of such data for ILI surveillance purposes

Factorial validity and internal consistency of the PRAFAB questionnaire in women with stress urinary incontinence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To investigate the factor structure, dimensionality and construct validity of the (5-item) PRAFAB questionnaire score in women with stress urinary incontinence (stress UI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross validation study design was used in a cohort of 279 patients who were randomly divided into Sample A or B. Sample A was used for preliminary exploratory factor analyses with promax rotation. Sample B provided an independent sample for confirming the premeditated and proposed factor structure and item retention. Internal consistency, item-total and subscale correlations were determined to assess the dimensionality. Construct validity was assessed by comparing factor-based scale means by clinical characteristics based on known relationships.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Factor analyses resulted in a two-factor structure or subscales: items related to 'leakage severity' (protection, amount and frequency) and items related to its 'perceived symptom impact' or consequences of stress UI on the patient's life (adjustment and body (or self) image). The patterns of the factor loadings were fairly identical for both study samples. The two constructed subscales demonstrated adequate internal consistency with Cronbach's alphas in a range of 0.78 and 0.84 respectively. Scale scores differed by clinical characteristics according to the expectations and supported the construct validity of the scales.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings suggest a two-factorial structure of the PRAFAB questionnaire. Furthermore the results confirmed the internal consistency and construct validity as demonstrated in our previous study. The best description of the factorial structure of the PRAFAB questionnaire was given by a two-factor solution, measuring the stress UI leakage severity items and the perceived symptom impact items. Future research will be necessary to replicate these findings in different settings, type of UI and non-white women and men.</p

The professionals speak: Practitioners’ perspectives on professional election campaigning

Faced with some fundamental changes in the socio-cultural, political and media environment, political parties in post-industrialized democracies have started to initiate substantial transformations of both their organizational structures and communicative practices. Those innovations, described as professionalization, become most obvious during election campaigns. In recent times, the number of empirical studies measuring the degree of political parties’ campaign professionalism has grown. They have relied on a broad spectrum of indicators derived from theory which have not been tested for their validity. For the first time, we put these indicators to a ‘reality check’ by asking top-ranked party secretaries and campaign managers in 12 European countries to offer their perceptions of professional election campaigning. Furthermore, we investigate whether any differences in understanding professionalism among party campaign practitioners can be explained by macro (country) and meso (party) factors. By and large, our results confirm the validity of most indicators applied in empirical studies on campaign professionalism so far. There are some party- and country-related differences in assessing campaign professionalism too, but the influence of most factors on practitioners’ evaluations is weak. Therefore, we conclude that largely there is a far-reaching European Union-wide common understanding of professional election campaigning

Essential versus accessory aspects of cell death: recommendations of the NCCD 2015

Cells exposed to extreme physicochemical or mechanical stimuli die in an uncontrollable manner, as a result of their immediate structural breakdown. Such an unavoidable variant of cellular demise is generally referred to as ‘accidental cell death’ (ACD). In most settings, however, cell death is initiated by a genetically encoded apparatus, correlating with the fact that its course can be altered by pharmacologic or genetic interventions. ‘Regulated cell death’ (RCD) can occur as part of physiologic programs or can be activated once adaptive responses to perturbations of the extracellular or intracellular microenvironment fail. The biochemical phenomena that accompany RCD may be harnessed to classify it into a few subtypes, which often (but not always) exhibit stereotyped morphologic features. Nonetheless, efficiently inhibiting the processes that are commonly thought to cause RCD, such as the activation of executioner caspases in the course of apoptosis, does not exert true cytoprotective effects in the mammalian system, but simply alters the kinetics of cellular demise as it shifts its morphologic and biochemical correlates. Conversely, bona fide cytoprotection can be achieved by inhibiting the transduction of lethal signals in the early phases of the process, when adaptive responses are still operational. Thus, the mechanisms that truly execute RCD may be less understood, less inhibitable and perhaps more homogeneous than previously thought. Here, the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death formulates a set of recommendations to help scientists and researchers to discriminate between essential and accessory aspects of cell death

Ubiquitous molecular substrates for associative learning and activity-dependent neuronal facilitation.

Recent evidence suggests that many of the molecular cascades and substrates that contribute to learning-related forms of neuronal plasticity may be conserved across ostensibly disparate model systems. Notably, the facilitation of neuronal excitability and synaptic transmission that contribute to associative learning in Aplysia and Hermissenda, as well as associative LTP in hippocampal CA1 cells, all require (or are enhanced by) the convergence of a transient elevation in intracellular Ca2+ with transmitter binding to metabotropic cell-surface receptors. This temporal convergence of Ca2+ and G-protein-stimulated second-messenger cascades synergistically stimulates several classes of serine/threonine protein kinases, which in turn modulate receptor function or cell excitability through the phosphorylation of ion channels. We present a summary of the biophysical and molecular constituents of neuronal and synaptic facilitation in each of these three model systems. Although specific components of the underlying molecular cascades differ across these three systems, fundamental aspects of these cascades are widely conserved, leading to the conclusion that the conceptual semblance of these superficially disparate systems is far greater than is generally acknowledged. We suggest that the elucidation of mechanistic similarities between different systems will ultimately fulfill the goal of the model systems approach, that is, the description of critical and ubiquitous features of neuronal and synaptic events that contribute to memory induction

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation