Near-real-time VTEC maps: new contribution for Latin America Space Weather

The development of regional services able to provide ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) maps and ionospheric indexes with a high spatial resolution, and in near-real-time, are of great importance for both civilian applications and the research community. We provide here the methodologies, and an assessment, of such a system. It relies on the public Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) infrastructure in South America, incorporates data from multiple constellations (currently GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou), employs multiple frequencies, and produces continental wide VTEC maps with a latency of just a few minutes. To assess the ability of our system to model the ionospheric behavior we performed a yearround intercomparison between our near-real-time regional VTEC maps, and VTEC maps of veri ed quality produced by several referent analysis centers, resulting in mean biases lower than 1 TEC units (TECU). Also, the evaluation of our products against direct and independent GNSS-based slant TEC measurements shows RMS values better than 1 TECU. In turn, ionospheric weather W-index maps were generated, for calm and disturbed geomagnetic scenarios, solely employing our quality veri ed VTEC maps. The spatial representation of these W-index maps re ects the state of the ionosphere, with a resolution of 0:5 0:5 degrees. Finally, we conclude that our products, computed every 15 minutes, do provide an excellent spatial representation of the regional TEC, and are able to provide the bases for the possible computation of ionospheric W-index maps, also in near-real-time.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

Near-real-time VTEC maps: New contribution for Latin America Space Weather

The development of regional services able to provide ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) maps and ionospheric indexes with a high spatial resolution, and in near-real-time, are of great importance for both civilian applications and the research community. We provide here the methodologies, and an assessment, of such a system. It relies on the public Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) infrastructure in South America, incorporates data from multiple constellations (currently GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou), employs multiple frequencies, and produces continental wide VTEC maps with a latency of just a few minutes. To assess the ability of our system to model the ionospheric behavior we performed a year-round intercomparison between our near-real-time regional VTEC maps, and VTEC maps of verified quality produced by several referent analysis centers, resulting in mean biases lower than 1 TEC units (TECU). Also, the evaluation of our products against direct and independent GNSS-based slant TEC measurements shows RMS values better than 1 TECU. In turn, ionospheric weather W-index maps were generated, for calm and disturbed geomagnetic scenarios, solely employing our quality verified VTEC maps. The spatial representation of these W-index maps reflects the state of the ionosphere, with a resolution of 0.5×0.5 degrees. Finally, we conclude that our products, computed every 15 min, do provide an excellent spatial representation of the regional TEC, and are able to provide the bases for the possible computation of ionospheric W-index maps, also in near-real-time.Fil: Mendoza, Luciano Pedro Oscar. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Meza, Amalia Margarita. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Aragón Paz, Juan Manuel. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentin

Implementation of a GNSS meteorological model to the estimation of the Haines Index

Background: The objective of this study was to look for a replacement to the radiosonde measurements that are necessary for the construction of an index of potential wildfire severity (i.e., Haines Index, HI) in areas of South America that have had few to no radiosonde launches. To this end, we tested the application of GPT2w, an empirical model originally developed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology. By using the GPT2w model, and starting from measured surface meteorological data (air pressure, temperature, and relative humidity), estimators of air temperature and dew-point air temperature at different pressure levels were generated. The selected testing area was a region of South America that included most of the Río de la Plata drainage basin, along with two hazardous areas: Sierras de Córdoba in Argentina and Serra da Canastra in Brazil. This region was chosen due to the availability of the radiosonde launches required for comparison during 2016. Results: To characterize the regional performance of HI, we used data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) reanalysis model (ERA Interim; Dee et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137: 553–597, 2011) for the period 2000 to 2016. A statistical analysis of the differences between the simulated HI from GPT2w (HI_GPT2w) and the HI values derived from radiosonde measurements (HI_R) was performed. The results showed that HI_GPT2w reproduced HI_R values about 50% of the time, most accurately for low-severity HI values (2 to 3, on a scale of 2 to 6). In general, HI_GPT2w exhibited an underestimation of HI that increased as the index value increased. We analyzed how this underestimation affected the different HI variants calculated. To this end, we recall that each HI variant results from the sum of the stability and moisture terms. The stability term resulted from the temperature difference at different pressure levels while the moisture term is represented by the dew-point depression. Thus, the pressure level limits in the stability term define the HI variant. In this study, we used the Low-variant HI (950 and 850 hPa) and the Mid-variant HI (850 and 700 hPa). If we analyze this underestimation according to the HI variants, the moisture term is responsible for the Low variant underestimation and the stability term is responsible for the Mid variant. Conclusion: The simple application of GPT2w to extrapolate the vertical values of temperature and its dew-point depression is not enough to reproduce the Haines Index as it was measured from radiosonde measurements. Nevertheless, an improved application of GPT2w and the extrapolated saturation water vapor pressure by using the Integrated Water Vapor from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS-IWV) values could improve the results.Fil: Fernandez, Laura Isabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.astronomicas y Geofisicas. Laboratorio Maggia; ArgentinaFil: Aragón Paz, Juan Manuel. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.astronomicas y Geofisicas. Laboratorio Maggia; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Meza, Amalia Margarita. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.astronomicas y Geofisicas. Laboratorio Maggia; ArgentinaFil: Mendoza, Luciano Pedro Oscar. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.astronomicas y Geofisicas. Laboratorio Maggia; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

A Multi-GNSS, Multifrequency, and Near-Real-Time Ionospheric TEC Monitoring System for South America

Taking advantage of the public Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) infrastructure in South America, an operational monitoring system for the total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere has been developed. It incorporates data in near real time, from more than 90 GNSS satellites tracked by more than 200 ground stations. In turn, the system produces every 15 min a snapshot, that is a map, of the current state of the regional ionosphere, which is immediately available online. These maps could be employed, for example, to augment positioning with single-frequency GNSS receivers. They could also be combined with similar products in order to obtain weighted and reliable regional TEC maps, even in near real time. Most importantly, these products could be employed as data input in space environment forecasting and nowcasting models, given their very short latency of just a few minutes. In order to assess the response of the whole system to severe geomagnetic disturbances, the performance of the whole monitoring system during an actual geomagnetic storm has been investigated. The results suggest that the near-real-time system should be quite capable to monitor the regional TEC at a high temporal rate even under such conditions.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y GeofísicasConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnica

Implementation of a GNSS meteorological model to the estimation of the Haines Index

Background: The objective of this study was to look for a replacement to the radiosonde measurements that are necessary for the construction of an index of potential wildfire severity (i.e., Haines Index, HI) in areas of South America that have had few to no radiosonde launches. To this end, we tested the application of GPT2w, an empirical model originally developed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology. By using the GPT2w model, and starting from measured surface meteorological data (air pressure, temperature, and relative humidity), estimators of air temperature and dew-point air temperature at different pressure levels were generated. The selected testing area was a region of South America that included most of the Río de la Plata drainage basin, along with two hazardous areas: Sierras de Córdoba in Argentina and Serra da Canastra in Brazil. This region was chosen due to the availability of the radiosonde launches required for comparison during 2016. Results: To characterize the regional performance of HI, we used data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) reanalysis model (ERA Interim; Dee et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137: 553–597, 2011) for the period 2000 to 2016. A statistical analysis of the differences between the simulated HI from GPT2w (HI_GPT2w) and the HI values derived from radiosonde measurements (HI_R) was performed. The results showed that HI_GPT2w reproduced HI_R values about 50% of the time, most accurately for lowseverity HI values (2 to 3, on a scale of 2 to 6). In general, HI_GPT2w exhibited an underestimation of HI that increased as the index value increased. We analyzed how this underestimation affected the different HI variants calculated. To this end, we recall that each HI variant results from the sum of the stability and moisture terms. The stability term resulted from the temperature difference at different pressure levels while the moisture term is represented by the dew-point depression. Thus, the pressure level limits in the stability term define the HI variant. In this study, we used the Low-variant HI (950 and 850 hPa) and the Mid-variant HI (850 and 700 hPa). If we analyze this underestimation according to the HI variants, the moisture term is responsible for the Low variant underestimation and the stability term is responsible for the Mid variant. Conclusion: The simple application of GPT2w to extrapolate the vertical values of temperature and its dew-point depression is not enough to reproduce the Haines Index as it was measured from radiosonde measurements. Nevertheless, an improved application of GPT2w and the extrapolated saturation water vapor pressure by using the Integrated Water Vapor from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS-IWV) values could improve the resultsLaboratorio de Meteorología espacial, Atmósfera terrestre, Geodesia, Geodinámica, diseño de Instrumental y Astrometrí

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Estimación de parámetros troposféricos en tiempo casi real para Sudamérica mediante técnicas GNSS

En el presente trabajo de tesis se desarrolla el diseño e implementación de un sistema de cálculo, en tiempo casi real, de parámetros troposféricos mediante técnicas de navegación global por satélite (GNSS, del inglés Global Navigation Satellite System) para Sudamérica. El desarrollo de la llamada Meteorología GNSS se remonta a principios de la década del 90 donde se encuentran los trabajos fundacionales de esta disciplina. Con el correr de los años, nuevas contribuciones han ido definiendo los reales alcances de esta técnica, poniendo en práctica metodologías cada vez más contrastadas con los métodos de medición tradicionales. En los últimos años los esfuerzos se han enfocado en el desarrollo de procedimientos de cálculo que permitan la utilización de los datos GNSS, cada vez más numerosos, en la asimilación para modelos meteorológicos (en especial los de corto plazo), permitiendo así anticipar eventos con alto impacto a la sociedad civil (tormentas con granizo, inundaciones repentinas, eventos convectivos de mesoescala, etc). Numerosos trabajos se han centrado en la implementación de la meteorología GNSS en Europa, Estados Unidos y Japón. Para la región Sudamericana existen pocos y recientes antecedentes de la aplicación de estas metodologías. Se desarrolló un sistema de cálculo, que permite hacer uso de infraestructura existente en la región, tanto meteorológica como geodésica, enfocado en la obtención de las variables de interés meteorológico como son el retardo troposférico cenital (ZTD, del inglés Zenith Total Delay) y el vapor de agua integrado (IWV, del inglés Integrated Water Vapor). Por otra parte, se han realizado estudios en la aplicación del ZTD y el IWV a índices que permitan dar información rápida acerca de posibles eventos meteorológicos severos. En este trabajo se desarrollan las estrategias diseñadas para la adquisición de los datos, su disponibilidad y alcance. Las problemáticas en la disponibilidad de los mismos, de acuerdo a su procedencia, son descriptas y sorteadas. Seguidamente se brinda una detallada descripción de la metodología de estimación de las observaciones, haciendo especial foco en los parámetros de retardo troposférico cenital (ZTD, del ingles Zenith Tropospheric Delay) y vapor de agua integrado (IWV, del inglés Integrated Water Vapor) mediante el procesamiento de las observaciones GNSS y meteorológicas. Una vez que se tienen los resultados, la presentación de los mismos y los posibles formato de intercambio con las instituciones potenciales usuarias del dato son discutidos. Finalizando esta sección se hace un análisis de la performance del sistema de procesamiento contra las técnicas de radio sondeo (convencionales) y alguno de los modelos de reanálisis mas utilizados. En una segunda etapa se explora las distintas capacidades del IWV GNSS para representar las variaciones temporales y espaciales de la distribución del vapor de agua atmosférico frente a distintas situaciones meteorológicas. También, se describe el desarrollo de posibles índices de alerta que hagan utilización de la información disponible a partir del IWV GNSS. Basándose en bibliografía actualizada se comparan las distintas posibilidades de aplicación a la región de estudio en función de la frecuencia temporal y espacial de las observaciones. Los resultados son presentados analizando un evento de interés meteorológico para la región central de Argentina. Finalmente, los puntos mas salientes del presente trabajo son presentados en las conclusiones. Las mismas abarcan desde el sistema de descarga de datos hasta la implementación de los índices de alerta. Se formulan las posibles derivaciones del trabajo y sus implicancias en la mejora continua de este sistema, que en tiempo casi real, provee información sobre los parámetros de ZTD e IWV. Una sección final describe cuáles son las recomendaciones que permitirían mejoras en la utilización de los datos provistos para conseguir un máximo aprovechamiento de los mismos.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

Supplementary material of the manuscript entitled "Near-real-time GNSS tropospheric IWV monitoring system for South America", submitted to <i>Atmospheric Measurement Techniques</i>

Annimation showing the passage of a cold front over southern South America, June 24-25, 2019, as seen by GOES-16 Channel 13 (cloud-top temperature) and IWV from GNSS (coloured circles).Animación que muestra el pasaje de un frente frío en América del Sur. Material suplementario del artículo "Near-real-time GNSS tropospheric IWV monitoring system for South America", enviado a la revista Atmospheric Measurement Techniques.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

Near-real-time GNSS tropospheric IWV monitoring system for South America

Water vapor (WV) is a key component in the hydrological cycle. Changes in the distribution of WV and the rate of these changes influence the evolution of the climate. In addition, near-real-time (NRT) observations of WV have important applications through their assimilation into Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP). In South America, the only operational WV measurements have been those obtained by radiosonde (RS). Here we present a regional NRT WV monitoring system based on GNSS observations. It relies exclusively on data produced by existing geodetic and meteorological infrastructure, and uses only surface meteorological observations. Coverage extends from central Brazil to the Antarctic Peninsula, including Argentina and Uruguay, and produces hourly estimates of both Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). As part of the development of the system, we assessed the quality of the products by means of a comprehensive two-year comparison, between April 2018 and March 2020, with independent GNSS products, RS measurements, ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) hourly estimates and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The obtained biases and inter-technique dispersions confirm the good quality of the NRT products. This is especially important since the development of this NRT monitoring system is ultimately aimed at generating an accurate product that could be used, by the regional meteorological services, in their NWP. In addition, a preliminary study was conducted on the representativeness of the NRT product during a mesoscale convective system event in the region, particularly associated with severe weather.Fil: Aragón Paz, Juan Manuel. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Departamento de Astrometría; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Mendoza, Luciano Pedro Oscar. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Departamento de Astrometría; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Fernandez, Laura Isabel. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Departamento de Astrometría; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentin