Temporary Star or Emerging Tiger? Turkey's Recent Economic Performance in a Global Setting

This article assesses the recent performance of the Turkish economy, questioning whether the currently observed unusual boom conditions will lead to a process of sustainable growth. The latest phase of Turkish neo-liberal transformation in the post-2001 era is placed in a broader historical and global context; at the same time, the performance of the economy in recent years is compared with that of other key emerging markets, based on selected macroeconomic indicators. Utilizing the East Asian experience as the principal benchmark for comparison, this paper examines whether Turkey is on its way to accomplishing tiger-like development performance. Given the current challenges to sustainable growth, we conclude that it is premature to suggest that the impressive performance of the recent years will lead to durable success and tiger-like performance. While the focus is on the Turkish experience, the paper also probes the very nature of tiger-like performance itself, highlighting the fact that in setting standards for exceptional economic performance we need to extend our horizons beyond high rates of economic growth sustained over time, to broader indicators of social, political and human development.Turkey, hyper-growth, East Asian tigers, emerging markets, human development, democratization.

Türkiye’nin Yeni Cumhurbaşkanlığı Rejimi: Kırılganlık, Direnç, Tersine Dönebilirlik

Turkey’s forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in the country’s political trajectory. Depending on the outcome of the election, Turkey may find itself on the path of democratic renewal or further consolidation or deepening of the existing competitive authoritarian regime. The paper presents a critical account of the last four years under the new presidential regime and tries to locate the Turkish experience in the broader debate on varieties of right-wing populism. A central hypothesis is that the ongoing economic crisis has, to a certain extent, undermined the popularity of the AKP and the governing coalition. At the same, we should not underestimate the resilience of the ruling coalition in the face of continued economic growth and the importance of additional dynamics such as the role of identity politics and domestic politics-foreign policy interactions.2023 Haziran’da gerçekleşecek Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimleri ve Genel Seçimler, Türkiye’nin siyasi gidişatı için çok önemli bir dönüm noktası olma potansiyeline sahip. Türkiye, seçim sonuçlarına bağlı olarak, kendisini demokrasinin yeniden inşa edildiği veya var olan rekabetçi otoriter rejimin daha da konsolide olduğu ve derinleştiği bir senaryoyla karşı karşıya bulabilir. Bu makale, yeni başkanlık sistemi altında geçen son dört yılın kritik bir değerlendirmesini yaparken aynı zamanda Türkiye’nin deneyimini genel anlamdaki sağ popülizm tartışmaları çerçevesinde anlamlandırmaya çalışıyor. Ana hipoteze göre devam eden ekonomik kriz, belirli bir ölçüde, AKP’nin ve Cumhur İttifakı’nın halk içerisindeki popülerliğini zayıflattı. Diğer bir taraftan, yönetimdeki koalisyonun ekonomik büyümenin devamlılığını sağlamasıyla beraber kimlik politikaları ve iç politika – dış politika etkileşimi gibi farklı dinamiklerde gösterdiği direnç, seçim öncesi dikkate alınması gereken unsurları oluşturuyor

Rethinking development space in emerging countries: Turkey's conservative countermovement

Despite an increasingly flexible global policy context, most emerging countries refuse to venture beyond their pre-existing development strategies. This article contends that domestic political constraints under liberalized markets might preclude policy dynamism in some cases. In particular, it draws attention to the tension between market expansion and social cohesion as a formative influence over policy patterns. This tension is sometimes addressed through a conservative countermovement whereby liberally-oriented governments entice sections of the poor into broad electoral coalitions by employing palliative interventions alongside market-expanding policies. Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is one example. Central to the Turkish case has been the redeployment of the country’s historic foreign capital-dependent pattern of growth in the service of selective redistribution and credit-fuelled consumerism. The ensuing deficit-led neoliberal populism assured stable and equitable growth in the extraordinary international and domestic context of the mid-2000s, but proved unfeasible since the global crisis. Even then, this coupling of market and social preferences has become politically so firmly entrenched in time that it now constrains the policy options to address Turkey’s developmental impasse

Professor Alice H. Amsden - In Memoriam

In Memoriam of Alice H. Amsden, who was a Professor of Political Economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology died suddenly on March 14, 2012 at the age of 68.Publisher's Versio

Europe and the impasse of centre-left politics in Turkey: Lessons from the Greek experience

[No abstract available

Did Secularism Fail? The Rise of Religion in Turkish Politics

Religious movements have long been challenging the modernist and secularist ideas around the world. Within the last decade or so, pro-religious parties made significant electoral advances in various countries, including India, Sudan, Algeria, and the Palestinian territories. In this article, we focus on the rise of the pro-religious Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi- AKP) to power in the 2002 elections in Turkey. Using the Turkish experience with political Islam, we evaluate the explanatory value of Mark Juergensmeyer\u27s rise of religious nationalism theory, with a special emphasis on the failed secularism argument. Our analysis indicates that the theoretical approach formulated by Juergensmeyer has a great deal of explanatory power; however, it does not provide a complete explanation for the success of the AKP. The rise of religion in Turkish politics is the result of a complex process over long years of encounter and confrontation between two frameworks of order, starting with the sudden imposition of secularism from above, when the republic was established. Hence, to understand the rise of religion in contemporary Turkish politics, an in-depth understanding of history, politics, and the sources of tension between secularists and Islamists is essential. The findings of this article have important implications for other countries, especially those that are experiencing a resurgence of religion in politics, and are struggling to integrate religious parties into a democratic system

Bank efficiency and non-performing loans: Evidence from Turkey

This study analyses technical and allocative efficiencies in Turkish banks from December 2002 to December 2017, under the assumption of constant returns to scale. We apply a modified version of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach introduced by Aparico et al. (2015), which employs a directional distance model to provide estimates of efficiency, with a focus on Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) as an undesirable output. In addition, we examine the determinants of efficiency by applying quantile regressions to panel data. The results obtained support the thesis that NPLs exert a negative impact in terms of technical efficiency, which confirms the “bad management” hypothesis in the banking sector. We also find that the level of efficiency of Turkish banks differs, depending on the ownership structure in place

Monopolizando el centro : el AKP y el incierto rumbo de la democracia turca

La pérdida de impulso reformador y el creciente autoritarismo de la más reciente fase de gobierno del AKP nos indican que la democracia turca está en crisis. Las protestas de Gezi, aunque emergieron como un movimiento desde abajo en respuesta al creciente autoritarismo del gobierno del AKP, no llegaron a convertirse en un movimiento organizado y sostenido. Asimismo, los referentes externos y sus efectos sobre la reputación de la democracia turca no están consiguiendo revertir su involución. La noción de "comunidades acotadas" es un concepto clave para explicar la continuada dominación de Erdoğan y el AKP frente a fuertes presiones de cambio. La victoria de Erdoğan en las elecciones presidenciales de agosto de 2014 genera escenarios tanto benévolos como pesimistas para el futuro de la democracia turca.La pèrdua d'impuls reformador i el creixent autoritarisme de la més recent fase de govern de l'AKP ens indiquen que la democràcia turca està en crisi. Les protestes de Gezi, tot i que van emergir com un moviment des de baix en resposta al creixent autoritarisme del govern de l'AKP, no van arribar a convertir-se en un moviment organitzat i sostingut. Així mateix, els referents externs i els seus efectes sobre la reputació de la democràcia turca no estan aconseguint revertir la seva involució. La noció de "comunitats acotades" és un concepte clau per explicar la continuada dominació de Erdoğan i l'AKP front a fortes pressions de canvi. La victòria de Erdoğan a les eleccions presidencials d'agost de 2014 genera escenaris tant benèvols com pessimistes per al futur de la democràcia turca.The loss of reform momentum and rising authoritarianism during the most recent phase of AKP government indicate that Turkish democracy is in crisis. Although the Gezi protests emerged as a movement from below reacting to the rising authoritarianism of the AKP government, it did not turn into an organised and sustainable movement. Similarly, external anchors or reputational effects are failing to reverse the backsliding of Turkish democracy. The notion of 'bounded communities' is a key concept in accounting for the continued dominance of Erdoğan and the AKP in the presence of significant pressure for change. Erdoğan's victory in the August 2014 presidential elections generates both benign and pessimistic scenarios for the future of Turkish democrac

The political economy of export-oriented industrialization in the Tukey

Donated by Klaus KreiserReprinted from in : Turkey : Political, social and economic challenges in the 1990's : Brill, 1995