The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001-2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society

The "Millennium Drought" (2001-2009) can be described as the worst drought on record for southeast Australia. Adaptation to future severe droughts requires insight into the drivers of the drought and its impacts. These were analyzed using climate, water

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Improving curve number based storm runoff estimates using soil moisture proxies

Advances in data dissemination and the availability of new remote sensing datasets present both opportunities and challenges for hydrologists in improving flood forecasting systems. The current study investigates the improvement in SCS curve number (CN)-based storm runoff estimates obtained after inclusion of various soil moisture proxies based on additional data on precipitation, baseflow, and soil moisture. A dataset (1980-2007) comprising 186 Australian catchments (ranging from 51 to 1979 km2 in size) was used. In order to investigate the value of a particular proxy, the observed S (potential maximum retention) was compared to values obtained with different soil moisture proxies using linear regression. An antecedent precipitation index (API) based on gauged precipitation using a decay parameter proved most valuable in improving storm runoff estimates, stressing the importance of high quality precipitation data. An antecedent baseflow index (ABFI) also performed well. Proxies based on remote sensing (TRMM and AMSR-E) gave promising results, particularly when considering the expected arrival of higher accuracy data from upcoming satellites. The five-day API performed poorly. The inclusion of soil moisture proxies resulted in mean modeled versus observed correlation coefficients around 0.75 for almost all proxies. The greatest improvement in runoff estimates was observed in drier catchments with low Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and topographical slope (all intercorrelated parameters). The present results suggest the usefulness of incorporating remotely sensed proxies for soil moisture and catchment wetness in flood forecasting systems

Global vegetation biomass change (1988-2008) and attribution to environmental and human drivers

Aim: Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial aboveground vegetation biomass that can be derived from passive microwave remote sensing. VOD is distinct from optical vegetation re

An Intercomparison of ERS-Scat and AMSR-E Soil Moisture Observations with Model Simulations over France

This paper presents a study undertaken in preparation of the work leading up to the assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) observations into the land surface model (LSM) Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) atMe´te´o-France. This study consists of an intercomparison experiment of different space-borne platforms providing surface soilmoisture information [AdvancedMicrowave ScanningRadiometer for Earth Observing (AMSR-E) and European Remote Sensing Satellite Scatterometer (ERS-Scat)] with the reanalysis soil moisture predictions over France from the model suite of Syste`me d'analyse fournissant des renseignements atmosphe´riques a` la neige (SAFRAN), ISBA, and coupled model (MODCOU; SIM) of Me´te´o-France for the years of 2003–05. Both modeled and remotely sensed data are initially validated against in situ observations obtained at the experimental soil moisture monitoring site Surface Monitoring of the Soil Reservoir Experiment (SMOSREX) in southwestern France. Two different AMSR-E soil moisture products are compared in the course of this study—the official AMSR-E product from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and a new product developed at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and NASA (VUA–NASA)—which were obtained using two different retrieval algorithms. This allows for an additional assessment of the different algorithms while using identical brightness temperature datasets. This study shows that a good correlation generally exists between AMSR-E (VUA–NASA), ERS-Scat, and SIM for low altitudes and low-to-moderate vegetation covers (1.5–3 kgm22 vegetation water content), with a reduction in the correlation in mountainous regions. It also shows that the AMSR-E (NSIDC) soil moisture product has significant differences when compared to the other datasets

Global long-term passive microwave satellite-based retrievals of vegetation optical depth

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) retrievals from three satellite-based passive microwave instruments were merged to produce the first long-term global microwave-based vegetation product. The resulting VOD product spans more than two decades and shows seasonal cycles and inter-annual variations that generally correspond with those observed in the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Some notable differences exist in the long-term trends: the NDVI, operating in the optical regime, is sensitive to chlorophyll abundance and photosynthetically active biomass of the leaves, whereas the microwave-based VOD is an indicator of the vegetation water content in total above-ground biomass, i.e., including wood and leaf components. Preliminary analyses indicate that the fluctuations in VOD typically correlated to precipitation variations, and that the mutually independent VOD and NDVI do not necessarily respond in identical manners. Considering both products together provides a more robust structural characterization and assessment of long-term vegetation dynamics at the global scale

Influence of cracking clays on satellite estimated and model simulated soil moisture

Vertisols are clay soils that are common in the monsoonal and dry warm regions of the world. One of the characteristics of these soil types is to form deep cracks during periods of extended dry, resulting in significant variation of the soil and hydrologic properties. Understanding the influence of these varying soil properties on the hydrological behavior of the system is of considerable interest, particularly in the retrieval or simulation of soil moisture. In this study we compare surface soil moisture (θ in m3 m-3) retrievals from AMSR-E using the VUA-NASA (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in collaboration with NASA) algorithm with simulations from the Community Land Model (CLM) over vertisol regions of mainland Australia. For the three-year period examined here (2003-2005), both products display reasonable agreement during wet periods. During dry periods however, AMSR-E retrieved near surface soil moisture falls below values for surrounding non-clay soils, while CLM simulations are higher. CLM θ are also higher than AMSR-E and their difference keeps increasing throughout these dry periods. To identify the possible causes for these discrepancies, the impacts of land use, topography, soil properties and surface temperature used in the AMSR-E algorithm, together with vegetation density and rainfall patterns, were investigated. However these do not explain the observed θ responses. Qualitative analysis of the retrieval model suggests that the most likely reason for the low AMSR-E θ is the increase in soil porosity and surface roughness resulting from cracking of the soil. To quantitatively identify the role of each factor, more in situ measurements of soil properties that can represent different stages of cracking need to be collected. CLM does not simulate the behavior of cracking soils, including the additional loss of moisture from the soil continuum during drying and the infiltration into cracks during rainfall events, which results in overestimated θ when cracks are present. The hydrological influence of soil physical changes are expected to propagate through the modeled system, such that modeled infiltration, evaporation, surface temperature, surface runoff and groundwater recharge should be interpreted with caution over these soil types when cracks might be present. Introducing temporally dynamic roughness and soil porosity into retrieval algorithms and adding a "cracking clay" module into models are expected to improve the representation of vertisol hydrology

Satellite-based estimates of vegetation density over Australia during 1988-2008

Vegetation density plays an important role in the water and energy balance. Satellite based passive microwave instruments have shown an ability to monitor the total above-ground vegetation biomass at global scales. A recently developed approach to retrieving vegetation optical depth (VOD, an index of vegetation density) from microwave emissions can be used for all bands in the microwave domain, allowing data collected by different satellites (e.g. Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I from middle 1987), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI from 1998) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E from middle 2002)) to yield a long-time series. However, differences in measurement specifications prevent merging the data directly. Here we develop a merged product by adjusting SSM/I and TMI products against the reference sensor (AMSR-E) using the cumulative distribution frequency matching approach. Results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis on the merged VOD product during 1988-2008 show that northwest Australia experienced considerable increases in vegetation density, whereas southeast Australia experienced considerable declines. Gridded rainfall and temperature products were used to assess climate induced changes during the study period over Australia. By performing multiple linear regression analysis over varying periods of precipitation, temperature and annual maximum monthly VOD, we identify the proportion of VOD change that is explained by precipitation and temperature, and distinguish the contribution of natural climate from human activities on the long-term change. Expanding analysis to the global scale along these lines should increase our understanding of the natural and anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial hydrology and vegetation dynamics

Global vegetation biomass change (1988-2008) and attribution to environmental and human drivers

Aim: Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial aboveground vegetation biomass that can be derived from passive microwave remote sensing. VOD is distinct from optical vegetation remote sensing data such as the normalized difference vegetation index in that it is: (a) less prone to saturation in dense canopies; (b) sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; and (c) less affected by atmospheric conditions. Our primary objective was to analyse a recently developed long-term VOD record and investigate how the vegetation water content of various land-cover types responded to environmental changes and human influences from 1988 to 2008. Location: Global. Methods: We first conducted Mann-Kendall trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions with significant changes over the period 1988-2008. To diagnose the underlying cause of the observed changes, patterns for these identified regions were further compared with independent datasets of precipitation, crop production, deforestation and fire occurrence. Results: (1) Over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns corresponded strongly to temporal precipitation patterns. (2) Over croplands, annual average VOD showed a general increase that corresponded to reported crop production patterns and was attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvements. (3) Over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns; the 2005 Amazon drought corresponded with a temporary VOD decrease. (4) Over boreal forests, regional VOD declines are attributed to a combination of fires and clear cutting. Main conclusions: Passive microwave remote sensing of VOD can be used to monitor global changes in total aboveground vegetation water content and biomass over various land-cover types. This new observational record can help in hydrological, agricultural, ecological and climate change studies, and provides new insights into large-scale vegetation change and its drivers