331 research outputs found

    Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers

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    To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a highly participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security

    Pre-eruptive magmatic processes re-timed using a non-isothermal approach to magma chamber dynamics

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    Open Source PaperThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The attached file is the published version of the article

    Predation risk and the evolution of a vertebrate stress response: Parallel evolution of stress reactivity and sexual dimorphism

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    Predation risk is often invoked to explain variation in stress responses. Yet, the answers to several key questions remain elusive, including the following: (1) how predation risk influences the evolution of stress phenotypes, (2) the relative importance of environmental versus genetic factors in stress reactivity and (3) sexual dimorphism in stress physiology. To address these questions, we explored variation in stress reactivity (ventilation frequency) in a post-Pleistocene radiation of live-bearing fish, where Bahamas mosquitofish (Gambusia hubbsi) inhabit isolated blue holes that differ in predation risk. Individuals of populations coexisting with predators exhibited similar, relatively low stress reactivity as compared to low-predation populations. We suggest that this dampened stress reactivity has evolved to reduce energy expenditure in environments with frequent and intense stressors, such as piscivorous fish. Importantly, the magnitude of stress responses exhibited by fish from high-predation sites in the wild changed very little after two generations of laboratory rearing in the absence of predators. By comparison, low-predation populations exhibited greater among-population variation and larger changes subsequent to laboratory rearing. These low-predation populations appear to have evolved more dampened stress responses in blue holes with lower food availability. Moreover, females showed a lower ventilation frequency, and this sexual dimorphism was stronger in high-predation populations. This may reflect a greater premium placed on energy efficiency in live-bearing females, especially under high-predation risk where females show higher fecundities. Altogether, by demonstrating parallel adaptive divergence in stress reactivity, we highlight how energetic trade-offs may mould the evolution of the vertebrate stress response under varying predation risk and resource availability

    Decadal to monthly timescales of magma transfer and reservoir growth at a caldera volcano

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    International audienceCaldera-forming volcanic eruptions are low-frequency, highimpact events capable of discharging tens to thousands of cubic kilometres of magma explosively on timescales of hours to days, with devastating effects on local and global scales1. Because no such eruption has been monitored during its long build-up phase, the precursor phenomena are not well understood. Geophysical signals obtained during recent episodes of unrest at calderas such as Yellowstone, USA, and Campi Flegrei, Italy, are difficult to interpret, and the conditions necessary for large eruptions are poorly constrained2,3. Here we present a study of pre-eruptive magmatic processes and their timescales using chemically zoned crystals from the 'Minoan' caldera-formingeruption of Santorini volcano,Greece4, which occurred in the late 1600s BC. The results provide insights into how rapidly large silicic systems may pass from a quiescent state to one on the edge of eruption5,6. Despite the large volume of erupted magma4 (40-60 cubic kilometres), and the 18,000-year gestation period between the Minoan eruption and the previous major eruption, most crystals in the Minoan magma record processes that occurred less than about 100 years before the eruption. Recharge of the magma reservoir by large volumes of silicic magma (and some mafic magma) occurred during the century before eruption, and mixing between different silicicmagmabatches was still taking place during the final months. Final assembly of large silicic magma reservoirs may occur on timescales that are geologically very short by comparison with the preceding repose period, with major growth phases immediately before eruption. These observations have implications for the monitoring of long-dormant, but potentially active, caldera systems

    Rapid onset of mafic magmatism facilitated by volcanic edifice collapse

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    Volcanic edifice collapses generate some of Earth's largest landslides. How such unloading affects the magma storage systems is important for both hazard assessment and for determining long-term controls on volcano growth and decay. Here we present a detailed stratigraphic and petrological analyses of volcanic landslide and eruption deposits offshore Montserrat, in a subduction zone setting, sampled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 340. A large (6–10 km3) collapse of the Soufrière Hills Volcano at ~130 ka was followed by explosive basaltic volcanism and the formation of a new basaltic volcanic center, the South Soufrière Hills, estimated to have initiated <100 years after collapse. This basaltic volcanism was a sharp departure from the andesitic volcanism that characterized Soufrière Hills' activity before the collapse. Mineral-melt thermobarometry demonstrates that the basaltic magma's transit through the crust was rapid and from midcrustal depths. We suggest that this rapid ascent was promoted by unloading following collapse
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