Gene expression profiles classifying clinical stages of tuberculosis and monitoring treatment responses in Ethiopian HIV-negative and HIV-positive cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Validation of previously identified candidate biomarkers and identification of additional candidate gene expression profiles to facilitate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) disease and monitoring treatment responses in the Ethiopian context is vital for improving TB control in the future. METHODS: Expression levels of 105 immune-related genes were determined in the blood of 80 HIV-negative study participants composed of 40 active TB cases, 20 latent TB infected individuals with positive tuberculin skin test (TST+), and 20 healthy controls with no Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection (TST-), using focused gene expression profiling by dual-color Reverse-Transcription Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification assay. Gene expression levels were also measured six months after anti-TB treatment (ATT) and follow-up in 38 TB patients. RESULTS: The expression of 15 host genes in TB patients could accurately discriminate between TB cases versus both TST+ and TST- controls at baseline and thus holds promise as biomarker signature to classify active TB disease versus latent TB infection in an Ethiopian setting. Interestingly, the expression levels of most genes that markedly discriminated between TB cases versus TST+ or TST- controls did not normalize following completion of ATT therapy at 6 months (except for PTPRCv1, FCGR1A, GZMB, CASP8 and GNLY) but had only fully normalized at the 18 months follow-up time point. Of note, network analysis comparing TB-associated host genes identified in the current HIV-negative TB cohort to TB-associated genes identified in our previously published Ethiopian HIV-positive TB cohort, revealed an over-representation of pattern recognition receptors including TLR2 and TLR4 in the HIV-positive cohort which was not seen in the HIV-negative cohort. Moreover, using ROC cutoff ≥ 0.80, FCGR1A was the only marker with classifying potential between TB infection and TB disease regardless of HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that complex gene expression signatures are required to measure blood transcriptomic responses during and after successful ATT to fully diagnose TB disease and characterise drug-induced relapse-free cure, combining genes which resolve completely during the 6-months treatment phase of therapy with genes that only fully return to normal levels during the post-treatment resolution phase

Productivity of mixtures and evolutionary populations of wheat, barley, beans and rice

Mixtures of different varieties of barley (Hordeum vulgare), wheat (Triticum ssp.) are grown by farmers in Ethiopia, Iran, Jordan, as a means of diversifying production and/or coping with difficult or uncertain growing conditions. Similarly, mixtures of different varieties of beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) were grown by farmers in Bhutan, Nepal and Uganda, with mixtures of Rice (Oryza sativa) were also grown by Bhutan and Nepal farmers. The mixture of all crops in all countries were grown for three consecutive years under IFAD – EPB project. Varietal diversity can improve farmers’ productivity, capabilities to manage pests and diseases and allows farmers to select suitable cultivars in response to varied or uncertain climatic conditions. Moreover, varietal diversification can improve the nutritional security of smallholder farmers

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (USMR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71.2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval WI] 68.3-74-0) in 2000 to 37.1 (33.2-41.7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28.0 deaths per 1000 live births (26.8-29-5) in 2000 to 17.9 (16.3-19-8) in 2019. In 2019,136 (67%) of 204 countries had a USMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030,154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9.65 million (95% UI 9.05-10.30) in 2000 and 5.05 million (4.27-6.02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3.76 million 95% UI 3.53-4.021) in 2000 to 48% (2.42 million; 2.06-2.86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0.80 (95% UI 0.71-0.86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1.44 (95% UI 1-27-1.58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1.87 million (95% UI 1-35-2.58; 37% 95% UI 32-43]) of 5.05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve USMR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Determinants of Participation Decision and Levels of Participation in Small Ruminants Market

Small ruminants are mainly kept for immediate cash sources and they are also sources of foreign currency. Nonetheless, there is a lack of well-functioning marketing systems. In addition, the different live animals supplied to the market by pastoralists and farmers do not meet the quality attributes required by diverse markets. Randomly 1120 farmers were selected and using double hurdle model, the article identified determinants of participation decision and level of participation in small ruminants market in 7 districts of five regional states of Ethiopia. Out of the total interviewed households, 77.3% and 22.7% were participated and not-participated to the small ruminants market, respectively. The first-hurdle model estimation results for participation decision indicate that Region, access to credit, distance to the market, distance to veterinary service, extension contact and access to market information were found that significantly influenced small ruminants’ market participation The results also show that most of the factors determining decision of participation also determined the level of small ruminants market participation. Therefore, government or any other bodies who are concerned on small ruminants product should help producers on Improving the accessibility of market places; need to facilitate a long term relationship with different actors in order to get reasonable price for the producers

Phenotypic and genotypic drug susceptibility patterns of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Central and Southern Ethiopia.

IntroductionThe persistence of tuberculosis (TB) infection in some patients after treatment has highlighted the importance of drug susceptibility testing (DST). This study aimed to determine the drug susceptibility patterns of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) isolates from pulmonary TB (PTB) patients in Central and Southern Ethiopia.MethodsA health institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted between July 2021 and April 2022. Sputum samples were collected from newly diagnosed smear microscopy and/or Xpert MTB/RIF-positive PTB patients. The samples were processed and cultivated in Lowenstein-Jensen (LJ) pyruvate and glycerol medium. M. tuberculosis isolates were identified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based region of difference 9 (RD9) deletion typing. Phenotypic DST patterns of the isolates were characterized using the BACTEC MGIT™ 960 instrument with SIRE kit. Isoniazid (INH) and Rifampicin (RIF) resistant M. tuberculosis isolates were identified using the GenoType® MTBDRplus assay.ResultsSputum samples were collected from 350 PTB patients, 315 (90%) of which were culture-positive, and phenotypic and genotypic DST were determined for 266 and 261 isolates, respectively. Due to invalid results and missing data, 6% (16/266) of the isolates were excluded, while 94% (250/266) were included in the paired analysis. According to the findings, 14.4% (36/250) of the isolates tested positive for resistance to at least one anti-TB drug. Gene mutations were observed only in the rpoB and katG gene loci, indicating RIF and high-level INH resistance. The GenoType® MTBDRplus assay has a sensitivity of 42% and a specificity of 100% in detecting INH-resistant M. tuberculosis isolates, with a kappa value of 0.56 (95%CI: 0.36-0.76) compared to the BACTEC MGIT™ DST. The overall discordance between the two methods was 5.6% (14/250) for INH alone and 0% for RIF resistance and MDR-TB (resistance to both INH and RIF) detection.ConclusionThis study reveals a higher prevalence of phenotypic and genotypic discordant INH-resistant M. tuberculosis isolates in the study area. The use of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is essential for gaining a comprehensive understanding of these discrepancies within INH-resistant M. tuberculosis strains