Can the salt-advection feedback be detected in internal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation?

Evidence for the assumptions of the salt-advection feedback in box models is sought by studying the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) internal variability in the long preindustrial control runs of two Earth system models. The first assumption is that AMOC strength is proportional to the meridional density difference between the North Atlantic and the Southern Oceans. The model simulations support this assumption, with the caveat that nearly all the long time-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic density. The second assumption is that the freshwater transport variability by the overturning at the Atlantic southern boundary is controlled by the strength of AMOC. Only one of the models shows some evidence that AMOC variability at 45°N leads variability in the overturning freshwater transport at the southern boundary by about 30 years, but the other model shows no such coherence. In contrast, in both models this freshwater transport variability is dominated by local salinity variations. The third assumption is that changes in the overturning freshwater transport at the Atlantic southern boundary perturb the north-south density difference, and thus feed back on AMOC strength in the north. No evidence for this assumption is found in either model at any time scale, although this does not rule out that the salt-advection feedback may be excited by a strong enough freshwater perturbation

A multi-stage genome-wide association study of bladder cancer identifies multiple susceptibility loci.

We conducted a multi-stage, genome-wide association study of bladder cancer with a primary scan of 591,637 SNPs in 3,532 affected individuals (cases) and 5,120 controls of European descent from five studies followed by a replication strategy, which included 8,382 cases and 48,275 controls from 16 studies. In a combined analysis, we identified three new regions associated with bladder cancer on chromosomes 22q13.1, 19q12 and 2q37.1: rs1014971, (P = 8 × 10⁻¹²) maps to a non-genic region of chromosome 22q13.1, rs8102137 (P = 2 × 10⁻¹¹) on 19q12 maps to CCNE1 and rs11892031 (P = 1 × 10⁻⁷) maps to the UGT1A cluster on 2q37.1. We confirmed four previously identified genome-wide associations on chromosomes 3q28, 4p16.3, 8q24.21 and 8q24.3, validated previous candidate associations for the GSTM1 deletion (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹) and a tag SNP for NAT2 acetylation status (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹), and found interactions with smoking in both regions. Our findings on common variants associated with bladder cancer risk should provide new insights into the mechanisms of carcinogenesis

Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

This paper presents an analysis of initialised decadal hindcasts of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) using the HiGEM model, which has a nominal grid-spacing of 90 km in the atmosphere, and 1/3 ∘∘ in the ocean. HiGEM decadal predictions (HiGEM-DP) exhibit significant skill at capturing 0–500 m ocean heat content in the SPG, and outperform historically forced transient integrations and persistence for up to a decade ahead. An analysis of case-studies of North Atlantic decadal change, including the 1960s cooling, the mid-1990s warming, and the post-2005 cooling, show that changes in ocean circulation and heat transport dominate the predictions of the SPG. However, different processes are found to dominate heat content changes in different regions of the SPG. Specifically, ocean advection dominates in the east, but surface fluxes dominate in the west. Furthermore, compared to previous studies, we find a smaller role for ocean heat transport changes due to ocean circulation anomalies at the latitudes of the SPG, and, for the 1960s cooling, a greater role for surface fluxes. Finally, HiGEM-DP predicts the observed positive state of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the early 1990s. These results support an important role for the ocean in driving past changes in the North Atlantic region, and suggest that these changes were predictable

Recent progress in understanding and predicting Atlantic decadal climate variability

Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

HP1-Mediated Formation of Alternative Lengthening of Telomeres-Associated PML Bodies Requires HIRA but Not ASF1a

Approximately 10% of cancers use recombination-mediated Alternative Lengthening of Telomeres (ALT) instead of telomerase to prevent telomere shortening. A characteristic of cells that utilize ALT is the presence of ALT-associated PML nuclear bodies (APBs) containing (TTAGGG)n DNA, telomere binding proteins, DNA recombination proteins, and heterochromatin protein 1 (HP1). The function of APBs is unknown and it is possible that they are functionally heterogeneous. Most ALT cells lack functional p53, and restoration of the p53/p21 pathway in these cells results in growth arrest/senescence and a substantial increase in the number of large APBs that is dependent on two HP1 isoforms, HP1α and HP1γ. Here we investigated the mechanism of HP1-mediated APB formation, and found that histone chaperones, HIRA and ASF1a, are present in APBs following activation of the p53/p21 pathway in ALT cells. HIRA and ASF1a were also found to colocalize inside PML bodies in normal fibroblasts approaching senescence, providing evidence for the existence of a senescence-associated ASF1a/HIRA complex inside PML bodies, consistent with a role for these proteins in induction of senescence in both normal and ALT cells. Moreover, knockdown of HIRA but not ASF1a significantly reduced p53-mediated induction of large APBs, with a concomitant reduction of large HP1 foci. We conclude that HIRA, in addition to its physical and functional association with ASF1a, plays a unique, ASF1a-independent role, which is required for the localization of HP1 to PML bodies and thus for APB formation

Can the salt-advection feedback be detected in internal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation?

Evidence for the assumptions of the salt-advection feedback in box models is sought by studying the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) internal variability in the long preindustrial control runs of two Earth system models. The first assumption is that AMOC strength is proportional to the meridional density difference between the North Atlantic and the Southern Oceans. The model simulations support this assumption, with the caveat that nearly all the long time-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic density. The second assumption is that the freshwater transport variability by the overturning at the Atlantic southern boundary is controlled by the strength of AMOC. Only one of the models shows some evidence that AMOC variability at 45°N leads variability in the overturning freshwater transport at the southern boundary by about 30 years, but the other model shows no such coherence. In contrast, in both models this freshwater transport variability is dominated by local salinity variations. The third assumption is that changes in the overturning freshwater transport at the Atlantic southern boundary perturb the north-south density difference, and thus feed back on AMOC strength in the north. No evidence for this assumption is found in either model at any time scale, although this does not rule out that the salt-advection feedback may be excited by a strong enough freshwater perturbation