Universal basic income: inspecting the mechanisms

We consider the aggregate and distributional impact of Universal Basic Income (UBI). We develop a model to study a wide range of UBI programs and financing schemes and to highlight the key mechanisms behind their impact. The most crucial channel is the rise in distortionary taxation (required to fund UBI) on labor force participation. Second in importance is the decline in self-insurance due to the insurance UBI provides, resulting in lower aggregate capital. Third, UBI creates a positive income effect lowering labor force participation. Alternative tax-transfer schemes mitigate the impact on labor force participation and the cost of UBI

Entangled Stories: The Red Jews in Premodern Yiddish and German Apocalyptic Lore

“Far, far away from our areas, somewhere beyond the Mountains of Darkness, on the other side of the Sambatyon River…there lives a nation known as the Red Jews.” The Red Jews are best known from classic Yiddish writing, most notably from Mendele's Kitser masoes Binyomin hashlishi (The Brief Travels of Benjamin the Third). This novel, first published in 1878, represents the initial appearance of the Red Jews in modern Yiddish literature. This comical travelogue describes the adventures of Benjamin, who sets off in search of the legendary Red Jews. But who are these Red Jews or, in Yiddish, di royte yidelekh? The term denotes the Ten Lost Tribes of Israel, the ten tribes that in biblical times had composed the Northern Kingdom of Israel until they were exiled by the Assyrians in the eighth century BCE. Over time, the myth of their return emerged, and they were said to live in an uncharted location beyond the mysterious Sambatyon River, where they would remain until the Messiah's arrival at the end of time, when they would rejoin the rest of the Jewish people. This article is part of a broader study of the Red Jews in Jewish popular culture from the Middle Ages through modernity. It is partially based on a chapter from my book, Umstrittene Erlöser: Politik, Ideologie und jüdisch-christlicher Messianismus in Deutschland, 1500–1600 (Göttingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 2011). Several postdoctoral fellowships have generously supported my research on the Red Jews: a Dr. Meyer-Struckmann-Fellowship of the German Academic Foundation, a Harry Starr Fellowship in Judaica/Alan M. Stroock Fellowship for Advanced Research in Judaica at Harvard University, a research fellowship from the Heinrich Hertz-Foundation, and a YIVO Dina Abramowicz Emerging Scholar Fellowship. I thank the organizers of and participants in the colloquia and conferences where I have presented this material in various forms as well as the editors and anonymous reviewers of AJS Review for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am especially grateful to Jeremy Dauber and Elisheva Carlebach of the Institute for Israel and Jewish Studies at Columbia University, where I was a Visiting Scholar in the fall of 2009, for their generous encouragement to write this article. Sue Oren considerably improved my English. The style employed for Romanization of Yiddish follows YIVO's transliteration standards. Unless otherwise noted, translations from the Yiddish, Hebrew, German, and Latin are my own. Quotations from the Bible follow the JPS translation, and those from the Babylonian Talmud are according to the Hebrew-English edition of the Soncino Talmud by Isidore Epstein

Financial Risk and Unemployment

Abstract There is a strong correlation between the corporate interest rate (BAA rated), and its spread relative to Treasuries, and the unemployment rate. We model how interest rates and potential default rates impact equilibrium unemployment in a Diamond-Mortesen-Pissarides model. We calibrate the model using US data without targeting business cycle statistics. Volatility in the corporate interest rate can explain about 80% of the volatility of unemployment, vacancies, and market tightness. Simulating the Great Recession shows the model can account for much of the rise in unemployment. Without Fed action, unemployment would have been 6% higher. JEL Classification:E22, E24, E32, E44, J41, J63, J6

Heat Shock Factor 1-dependent extracellular matrix remodeling mediates the transition from chronic intestinal inflammation to colon cancer

In the colon, long-term exposure to chronic inflammation drives colitis-associated colon cancer (CAC) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. While the causal and clinical links are well established, molecular understanding of how chronic inflammation leads to the development of colon cancer is lacking. Here we deconstruct the evolving microenvironment of CAC by measuring proteomic changes and extracellular matrix (ECM) organization over time in a mouse model of CAC. We detect early changes in ECM structure and composition, and report a crucial role for the transcriptional regulator heat shock factor 1 (HSF1) in orchestrating these events. Loss of HSF1 abrogates ECM assembly by colon fibroblasts in cell-culture, prevents inflammation-induced ECM remodeling in mice and inhibits progression to CAC. Establishing relevance to human disease, we find high activation of stromal HSF1 in CAC patients, and detect the HSF1-dependent proteomic ECM signature in human colorectal cancer. Thus, HSF1-dependent ECM remodeling plays a crucial role in mediating inflammation-driven colon cancer.R35 GM118173 - NIGMS NIH HHS; U01 TR002625 - NCATS NIH HHS; P30 CA008748 - NCI NIH HHS; FC010144 - Cancer Research UK; FC010144 - Medical Research Council; FC010144 - Wellcome TrustPublished versio

BRCA mutational status shapes the stromal microenvironment of pancreatic cancer linking clusterin expression in cancer associated fibroblasts with HSF1 signaling

Tumors initiate by mutations in cancer cells, and progress through interactions of the cancer cells with non-malignant cells of the tumor microenvironment. Major players in the tumor microenvironment are cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs), which support tumor malignancy, and comprise up to 90% of the tumor mass in pancreatic cancer. CAFs are transcriptionally rewired by cancer cells. Whether this rewiring is differentially affected by different mutations in cancer cells is largely unknown. Here we address this question by dissecting the stromal landscape of BRCA-mutated and BRCA Wild-type pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We comprehensively analyze pancreatic cancer samples from 42 patients, revealing different CAF subtype compositions in germline BRCA-mutated vs. BRCA Wild-type tumors. In particular, we detect an increase in a subset of immune-regulatory clusterin-positive CAFs in BRCA-mutated tumors. Using cancer organoids and mouse models we show that this process is mediated through activation of heat-shock factor 1, the transcriptional regulator of clusterin. Our findings unravel a dimension of stromal heterogeneity influenced by germline mutations in cancer cells, with direct implications for clinical research

Invasive Prenatal Diagnostic Testing Recommendations are Influenced by Maternal Age, Statistical Misconception and Perceived Liability

Funding policy and medico-legal climate are part of physicians’ reality and might permeate clinical decisions. This study evaluates the influence of maternal age and government funding on obstetrician/gynecologist recommendation for invasive prenatal testing (i.e. amniocentesis) for Down syndrome (DS), and its association with the physician’s assessment of the risk of liability for medical malpractice unless they recommend amniocentesis. Israeli physicians (N = 171) completed a questionnaire and provided amniocentesis recommendations for women at 18 weeks gestation with normal preliminary screening results, identical except aged 28 and 37. Amniocentesis recommendations were reversed for the younger (‘yes’ regardless of testing results: 6.4%; ‘no’ regardless of testing results: 31.6%) versus older woman (‘yes’ regardless of testing results: 40.9%; ‘no’ regardless of testing results: 7.0%; χ2 = 71.55, p < .01). About half of the physicians endorsed different recommendations per scenario; of these, 65.6% recommended amniocentesis regardless of testing results for the 37-year-old woman. Physicians routinely performing amniocentesis and those advocating for amniocentesis for all women ≥ age 35 were approximately twice as likely to vary their recommendations per scenario. Physicians who perceived risk of liability for malpractice as large were nearly one-and-a-half times more likely to vary recommendations. The results indicate physicians’ recommendations are influenced by maternal age, though age is already incorporated in prenatal DS risk evaluations. The physician’s assessment of the risk that they will be sued unless they recommend amniocentesis may contribute to this spurious influence

The macroeconomics of automation: data, theory, and policy analysis

The U.S. economy has experienced a significant drop in the fraction of the population employed in middle wage, “routine task-intensive” occupations. Applying machine learning techniques, we identify characteristics of those who used to be employed in such occupations and show they are now less likely to work in routine occupations. Instead, they are either non-participants in the labor force or working at occupations that tend to occupy the bottom of the wage distribution. We then develop a quantitative, heterogeneous agent, general equilibrium model of labor force participation, occupational choice, and capital investment. This allows us to quantify the role of advancement in automation technology in accounting for these labor market changes. We then use this framework as a laboratory to evaluate various public policies aimed at addressing the disappearance of routine employment and its consequent impacts on inequality

How Exporters Grow

We document how export quantities and prices evolve after entry to a market. Controlling for marginal cost, and taking account of selection on idiosyncratic demand, there are economically and statistically significant dynamics of quantities, but no dynamics of prices. To match these facts, we estimate a model where firms invest in customer base through non-price actions (e.g. marketing and advertising), and learn gradually about their idiosyncratic demand. The model matches quantity, price and exit moments. Parameter estimates imply costs of adjusting investment in customer base, and slow learning about demand, both of which generate sluggish responses of sales to shocks

Who Cares about Unemployment Insurance?

How is the optimal level of unemployment insurance affected when accounting for skill differences? We analyze this question using a general equilibrium model that has a number of key elements: (i) a search and matching friction in the labor market; (ii) workers who have the ability to save and cannot perfectly insure idiosyncratic risks; and (iii) ex-ante heterogeneity in unemployment risk and labor income. Considering a proportional tax and replacement rate UI system, our model suggests an optimal replacement rate of 32%, while a model without ex-ante heterogeneity calls for a much lower replacement rate (12%). We show that both dimensions of heterogeneity are responsible for these results. Specifically, we argue that income differences induce an incentive to redistribute consumption across skill groups. However, given the UI system, such redistribution is feasible only when there are differences in unemployment risk