Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results

To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer fiveoriginal research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams renderedstatistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.</div

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BackgroundHistologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD.MethodsThis was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0–4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0–2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: 2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.FindingsOf 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44–63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33–91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62–0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70–0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64–0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63–0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.InterpretationSimple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of Parkinson?s disease

Although over 90 independent risk variants have been identified for Parkinson’s disease using genome-wide association studies, most studies have been performed in just one population at a time. Here we performed a large-scale multi-ancestry meta-analysis of Parkinson’s disease with 49,049 cases, 18,785 proxy cases and 2,458,063 controls including individuals of European, East Asian, Latin American and African ancestry. In a meta-analysis, we identified 78 independent genome-wide significant loci, including 12 potentially novel loci (MTF2, PIK3CA, ADD1, SYBU, IRS2, USP8, PIGL, FASN, MYLK2, USP25, EP300 and PPP6R2) and fine-mapped 6 putative causal variants at 6 known PD loci. By combining our results with publicly available eQTL data, we identified 25 putative risk genes in these novel loci whose expression is associated with PD risk. This work lays the groundwork for future efforts aimed at identifying PD loci in non-European populations

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Loss of Tsc1 from striatal direct pathway neurons impairs endocannabinoid-LTD and enhances motor routine learning.

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a neurodevelopmental disorder that often presents with psychiatric conditions, including autism spectrum disorder (ASD). ASD is characterized by restricted, repetitive, and inflexible behaviors, which may result from abnormal activity in striatal circuits that mediate motor learning and action selection. To test whether altered striatal activity contributes to aberrant motor behaviors in the context of TSC, we conditionally deleted Tsc1 from direct or indirect pathway striatal projection neurons (dSPNs or iSPNs, respectively). We find that dSPN-specific loss of Tsc1 impairs endocannabinoid-mediated long-term depression (eCB-LTD) at cortico-dSPN synapses and strongly enhances corticostriatal synaptic drive, which is not observed in iSPNs. dSPN-Tsc1 KO, but not iSPN-Tsc1 KO, mice show enhanced motor learning, a phenotype observed in several mouse models of ASD. These findings demonstrate that dSPNs are particularly sensitive to Tsc1 loss and suggest that enhanced corticostriatal activation may contribute to altered motor behaviors in TSC

Tsc1-mTORC1 signaling controls striatal dopamine release and cognitive flexibility.

Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC) is a neurodevelopmental disorder caused by mutations in TSC1 or TSC2, which encode proteins that negatively regulate mTOR complex 1 (mTORC1). TSC is associated with significant cognitive, psychiatric, and behavioral problems, collectively termed TSC-Associated Neuropsychiatric Disorders (TAND), and the cell types responsible for these manifestations are largely unknown. Here&nbsp;we use cell type-specific Tsc1 deletion to test whether dopamine neurons, which modulate cognitive, motivational, and affective behaviors, are involved in TAND. We show that loss of Tsc1 and constitutive activation of mTORC1 in dopamine neurons causes somatodendritic hypertrophy, reduces intrinsic excitability, alters axon terminal structure, and impairs striatal dopamine release. These perturbations lead to a selective deficit in cognitive flexibility, preventable by genetic reduction of the mTOR-binding protein Raptor. Our results establish a critical role for Tsc1-mTORC1 signaling in setting the functional properties of dopamine neurons, and indicate that dopaminergic dysfunction may contribute to cognitive inflexibility in TSC

Extensive identification of genes involved in congenital and structural heart disorders and cardiomyopathy

Clinical presentation of congenital heart disease is heterogeneous, making identification of the disease-causing genes and their genetic pathways and mechanisms of action challenging. By using in vivo electrocardiography, transthoracic echocardiography and microcomputed tomography imaging to screen 3,894 single-gene-null mouse lines for structural and functional cardiac abnormalities, here we identify 705 lines with cardiac arrhythmia, myocardial hypertrophy and/or ventricular dilation. Among these 705 genes, 486 have not been previously associated with cardiac dysfunction in humans, and some of them represent variants of unknown relevance (VUR). Mice with mutations in Casz1, Dnajc18, Pde4dip, Rnf38 or Tmem161b genes show developmental cardiac structural abnormalities, with their human orthologs being categorized as VUR. Using UK Biobank data, we validate the importance of the DNAJC18 gene for cardiac homeostasis by showing that its loss of function is associated with altered left ventricular systolic function. Our results identify hundreds of previously unappreciated genes with potential function in congenital heart disease and suggest causal function of five VUR in congenital heart disease