2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model

The 2016 NDAA authorized changes to the military retirement system transitioning from the legacy High-3 defined benefit annuity to the new Blended Retirement System (BRS). In exchange for a reduced defined benefit annuity, the BRS incorporates automatic and matching contributions to the member’s Thrift Savings Plan and a continuation payment offered at 12 years of service. In 2018,service members with less than 12 years of service will make an irrevocable decision between the two retirement systems. This research effort addresses the problem by developing a decision analysis model incorporating up to 27 different input variables. Service members can use the associated spreadsheet tool to calculate the expected net present value of each alternative based on their own personal circumstances. We analyze 26 typical career demographic groups to understand how the recommended alternative is impacted by various factors including personal discount rate, expected continuation pay multiplier, and probability of reaching 20 years of service. Each demographic group must make difficult assessments of these variables in order to determine their preferred alternative. We conduct two-variable sensitivity analysis and present the results in third-variable break-even policy charts, providing members with clarity of thought and action as they approach the 2018 opt-in window

Tumbleweeds and airborne gravitational noise sources for LIGO

Gravitational-wave detectors are sensitive not only to astrophysical gravitational waves, but also to the fluctuating Newtonian gravitational forces of moving masses in the ground and air around the detector. This paper studies the gravitational effects of density perturbations in the atmosphere, and from massive airborne objects near the detector. These effects were previously considered by Saulson; in this paper I revisit these phenomena, considering transient atmospheric shocks, and the effects of sound waves or objects colliding with the ground or buildings around the test masses. I also consider temperature perturbations advected past the detector as a source of gravitational noise. I find that the gravitational noise background is below the expected noise floor even of advanced interferometric detectors, although only by an order of magnitude for temperature perturbations carried along turbulent streamlines. I also find that transient shockwaves in the atmosphere could potentially produce large spurious signals, with signal-to-noise ratios in the hundreds in an advanced interferometric detector. These signals could be vetoed by means of acoustic sensors outside of the buildings. Massive wind-borne objects such as tumbleweeds could also produce gravitational signals with signal-to-noise ratios in the hundreds if they collide with the interferometer buildings, so it may be necessary to build fences preventing such objects from approaching within about 30m of the test masses.Comment: 15 pages, 10 PostScript figures, uses REVTeX4.cls and epsfig.st

Gender inequalities and academic journal publishing: The view from the Journal of American Studies

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordThis virtual special issue is the outcome of a project entitled Women and JAS, which was launched by the coeditors of the Journal of American Studies in October 2019 to document the involvement of women in the journal's day-to-day business from its inception in 1956 as the Bulletin of the British Association for American Studies. The project arises out of – and will hopefully contribute to – larger conversations about the progression of women scholars in academia. While the UK and US higher-education contexts (the contexts most pertinent to this discussion) differ, there are notable similarities in terms of the relationship between gender and career advancement. Both witness attrition of women from academia as they progress from undergraduate studies to PhD and beyond; both see disproportionate numbers of women scholars employed in precarious, part-time and/or teaching-only roles; both see a very low proportion of women in senior professorial roles; fewer women in both locations apply for (and are, therefore, awarded) major grants. In the UK, specifically, recent conversations around gender inequality in higher education have revolved around issues (and initiatives) such as the gender pay gap, Athena SWAN, sexual harassment and the effects of nondisclosure agreements (NDAs), caring responsibilities and affective labour

Content of exercise programmes targeting older people with sarcopenia or frailty – findings from a UK survey

Objectives: To establish whether existing exercise programmes offered to people with sarcopenia or frailty adhere to the current evidence base. Methods: We conducted a national survey of practitioners delivering exercise programmes to older people with sarcopenia or frailty in the UK. The link to the online survey was distributed through email lists of professional societies, practice networks and social media. Questions covered target population and programme aims, type, duration and frequency of exercise, progress assessment and outcome measures. Results: One hundred and thirty-six responses were received. 94% of respondents reported prescribing or delivering exercise programmes to people with sarcopenia or frailty. Most programmes (81/135 [60%]) were primarily designed to prevent or reduce falls. Resistance training was the main focus in only 11/123 (9%), balance training in 61/123 (50%) and functional exercise in 28/123 (23%). Exercise was offered once a week or less by 81/124 (65%) of respondents. Outcome measures suitable for assessing the effect of resistance training programmes were reported by fewer than half of respondents (hand grip: 13/119 [11%]; chair stands: 55/119 [46%]). Conclusions: Current UK exercise programmes offered to older people with sarcopenia or frailty lack the specificity, frequency or duration of exercise likely to improve outcomes for this patient group

Ability of verbal autopsy data to detect deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia:testing existing methods and development and validation of a novel weighted score

Objectives: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a useful tool to ascertain cause of death where no other mechanisms exist. We aimed to assess the utility of VA data to ascertain deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia and to develop a weighted score (WS) to specifically identify cases. Cases were identified by a study or site physician with training in diabetes. These diagnoses were also compared with diagnoses produced by a standard computer algorithm (InterVA-4). Setting: This study was done using VA data from the Health and Demographic Survey sites in Agincourt in rural South Africa. Validation of the WS was done using VA data from Karonga in Malawi. Participants: All deaths from ages 1 to 49 years between 1992 and 2015 and between 2002 and 2016 from Agincourt and Karonga, respectively. There were 8699 relevant deaths in Agincourt and 1663 in Karonga. Results: Of the Agincourt deaths, there were 77 study physician classified cases and 58 computer algorithm classified cases. Agreement between study physician classified cases and computer algorithm classified cases was poor (Cohen’s kappa 0.14). Our WS produced a receiver operator curve with area under the curve of 0.952 (95% CI 0.920 to 0.985). However, positive predictive value (PPV) was below 50% when the WS was applied to the development set and the score was dominated by the necessity for a premortem diagnosis of diabetes. Independent validation showed the WS performed reasonably against site physician classified cases with sensitivity of 86%, specificity of 99%, PPV of 60% and negative predictive value of 99%. Conclusion: Our results suggest that widely used VA methodologies may be missing deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia. Our WS may offer improved ability to detect deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia in large populations studies where no other means exist

Evolution of rarefaction pulses into vortex rings

The two-dimensional solitary waves of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation in the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili limit are unstable with respect to three-dimensional perturbations. We elucidate the stages in the evolution of such solutions subject to perturbations perpendicular to the direction of motion. Depending on the energy (momentum) and the wavelength of the perturbation different types of three-dimensional solutions emerge. In particular, we present new periodic solutions having very small energy and momentum per period. These solutions also become unstable and this secondary instability leads to vortex ring nucleation.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Impact of Vitamin D Supplementation on Arterial Vasomotion, Stiffness and Endothelial Biomarkers in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Background: Cardiovascular events are frequent and vascular endothelial function is abnormal in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We demonstrated endothelial dysfunction with vitamin D deficiency in CKD patients; however the impact of cholecalciferol supplementation on vascular stiffness and vasomotor function, endothelial and bone biomarkers in CKD patients with low 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] is unknown, which this study investigated. Methods: We assessed non-diabetic patients with CKD stage 3/4, age 17–80 years and serum 25(OH)D ,75 nmol/L. Brachial artery Flow Mediated Dilation (FMD), Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV), Augmentation Index (AI) and circulating blood biomarkers were evaluated at baseline and at 16 weeks. Oral 300,000 units cholecalciferol was administered at baseline and 8-weeks. Results: Clinical characteristics of 26 patients were: age 50614 (mean61SD) years, eGFR 41611 ml/min/1.73 m2, males 73%, dyslipidaemia 36%, smokers 23% and hypertensives 87%. At 16-week serum 25(OH)D and calcium increased (43616 to 84629 nmol/L, p,0.001 and 2.3760.09 to 2.4260.09 mmol/L; p = 0.004, respectively) and parathyroid hormone decreased (10.868.6 to 7.464.4; p = 0.001). FMD improved from 3.163.3% to 6.163.7%, p = 0.001. Endothelial biomarker concentrations decreased: E-Selectin from 566662123 to 525662058 pg/mL; p = 0.032, ICAM-1, 3.4560.01 to 3.1061.04 ng/mL; p = 0.038 and VCAM-1, 54633 to 42633 ng/mL; p = 0.006. eGFR, BP, PWV, AI, hsCRP, von Willebrand factor and Fibroblast Growth Factor-23, remained unchanged. Conclusion: This study demonstrates for the first time improvement of endothelial vasomotor and secretory functions with vitamin D in CKD patients without significant adverse effects on arterial stiffness, serum calcium or FGF-23. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0200571

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption - Part 1: Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can cause significant disruption to society, and numerical models are crucial for forecasting the dispersion of erupted material. Here we assess the skill and limitations of the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) in simulating the dispersion of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud from the 21–22 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (48.3∘ N, 153.2∘ E). The eruption emitted around 1.5±0.2 Tg of SO2, which represents the largest volcanic emission of SO2 into the stratosphere since the 2011 Nabro eruption. We simulate the temporal evolution of the volcanic SO2 cloud across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and compare our model simulations to high-resolution SO2 measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite SO2 products. We show that NAME accurately simulates the observed location and horizontal extent of the SO2 cloud during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption but is unable, in its standard configuration, to capture the extent and precise location of the highest magnitude vertical column density (VCD) regions within the observed volcanic cloud. Using the structure–amplitude–location (SAL) score and the fractional skill score (FSS) as metrics for model skill, NAME shows skill in simulating the horizontal extent of the cloud for 12–17 d after the eruption where VCDs of SO2 (in Dobson units, DU) are above 1 DU. For SO2 VCDs above 20 DU, which are predominantly observed as small-scale features within the SO2 cloud, the model shows skill on the order of 2–4 d only. The lower skill for these high-SO2-VCD regions is partly explained by the model-simulated SO2 cloud in NAME being too diffuse compared to TROPOMI retrievals. Reducing the standard horizontal diffusion parameters used in NAME by a factor of 4 results in a slightly increased model skill during the first 5 d of the simulation, but on longer timescales the simulated SO2 cloud remains too diffuse when compared to TROPOMI measurements. The skill of NAME to simulate high SO2 VCDs and the temporal evolution of the NH-mean SO2 mass burden is dominated by the fraction of SO2 mass emitted into the lower stratosphere, which is uncertain for the 2019 Raikoke eruption. When emitting 0.9–1.1 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere (11–18 km) and 0.4–0.7 Tg into the upper troposphere (8–11 km), the NAME simulations show a similar peak in SO2 mass burden to that derived from TROPOMI (1.4–1.6 Tg of SO2) with an average SO2 e-folding time of 14–15 d in the NH. Our work illustrates how the synergy between high-resolution satellite retrievals and dispersion models can identify potential limitations of dispersion models like NAME, which will ultimately help to improve dispersion modelling efforts of volcanic SO2 clouds. </jats:p

Discovery of a large and bright bow shock nebula associated with low mass X-ray binary SAX J1712.6-3739

In a multiwavelength program dedicated to identifying optical counterparts of faint persistent X-ray sources in the Galactic Bulge, we find an accurate X-ray position of SAX J1712.6-3739 through Chandra observations, and discover its faint optical counterpart using our data from EFOSC2 on the ESO 3.6m telescope. We find this source to be a highly extincted neutron star LMXB with blue optical colours. We serendipitously discover a relatively bright and large bow shock shaped nebula in our deep narrowband H alpha imaging, most likely associated with the X-ray binary. A nebula like this has never been observed before in association with a LMXB, and as such provides a unique laboratory to study the energetics of accretion and jets. We put forward different models to explain the possible ways the LMXB may form this nebulosity, and outline how they can be confirmed observationally.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS-Letters; 5 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables. Quality of figure 2 downgraded because of arXiv file size limit