Achieving consistency in measures of HIV-1 viral suppression across countries:derivation of an adjustment based on international antiretroviral treatment cohort data

INTRODUCTION: The third of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets is to achieve a 90% rate of viral suppression (HIV viral load <1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml) in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) by 2020. However, some countries use different thresholds when reporting viral suppression, and there is thus a need for an adjustment to standardize estimates to the <1000 threshold. We aim to propose such an adjustment, to support consistent monitoring of progress towards the "third 90" target. METHODS: We considered three possible distributions for viral loads in ART patients: Weibull, Pareto and reverse Weibull (imposing an upper limit but no lower limit on the log scale). The models were fitted to data on viral load distributions in ART patients in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration (representing seven global regions) and the ART Cohort Collaboration (representing Europe), using separate random effects models for adults and children. The models were validated using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) HIV drug resistance report and the Brazilian national ART programme. RESULTS: Models were calibrated using 921,157 adult and 37,431 paediatric viral load measurements, over 2010-2019. The Pareto and reverse Weibull models provided the best fits to the data, but for all models, the "shape" parameters for the viral load distributions differed significantly between regions. The Weibull model performed best in the validation against the WHO drug resistance survey data, while the Pareto model produced uncertainty ranges that were too narrow, relative to the validation data. Based on these analyses, we recommend using the reverse Weibull model. For example, if a country reports an 80% rate of viral suppression at <200 copies/ml, this model estimates the proportion virally suppressed at <1000 copies/ml is 88.3% (0.80(0.56) ), with uncertainty range 85.5-90.6% (0.80(0.70) -0.80(0.44) ). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of viral suppression can change substantially depending on the threshold used in defining viral suppression. It is, therefore, important that viral suppression rates are standardized to the same threshold for the purpose of assessing progress towards UNAIDS targets. We have proposed a simple adjustment that allows this, and this has been incorporated into UNAIDS modelling software

Divergent Evolution of PcF/SCR74 Effectors in Oomycetes Is Associated with Distinct Recognition Patterns in Solanaceous Plants

Plants deploy cell surface receptors known as pattern-recognition re ceptors (PRRs) that recognize non-self molecules from pathogens and microbes to defend against invaders. PRRs typically recognize microbe-associated molecular patterns (MAMPs) that are usually widely conserved, some even across kingdoms. Here, we report an oomycete-specific family of small secreted cysteine-rich (SCR) proteins that displays divergent patterns of sequence variation in the Irish potato famine pathogen Phytophthora infestans. A subclass that includes the conserved effector PcF from Phytophthora cactorum activates immunity in a wide range of plant species. In contrast, the more diverse SCR74 subclass is specific to P. infestans and tends to trigger immune responses only in a limited number of wild potato genotypes. The SCR74 response was recently mapped to a G-type lectin receptor kinase (GLecRK) locus in the wild potato Solanum microdontum subsp. gigantophyllum. The G-LecRK locus displays a high diversity in Solanum host species compared to other solanaceous plants. We propose that the diversification of the SCR74 proteins in P. infestans is driven by a fast coevolutionary arms race with cell surface immune receptors in wild potato, which contrasts the presumed slower dynamics between conserved apoplastic effectors and PRRs. Understanding the molecular determinants of plant immune responses to these divergent molecular patterns in oomycetes is expected to contribute to deploying multiple layers of disease resistance in crop plants. IMPORTANCE Immune receptors at the plant cell surface can recognize invading microbes. The perceived microbial molecules are typically widely conserved and therefore the matching surface receptors can detect a broad spectrum of pathogens. Here we describe a family of Phytophthora small extracellular proteins that consists of conserved subfamilies that are widely recognized by solanaceous plants. Remarkably, one subclass of SCR74 proteins is highly diverse, restricted to the late blight pathogen Phytophthora infestans and is specifically detected in wild potato plants. The diversification of this subfamily exhibits signatures of a coevolutionary arms race with surface receptors in potato. Insights into the molecular interaction between these potato-specific receptors and the recognized Phytophthora proteins are expected to contribute to disease resistance breeding in potato

Nine things to know about elicitins

Elicitins are structurally conserved extracellular proteins in Phytophthora and Pythium oomycete pathogen species. They were first described in the late 1980s as abundant proteins in Phytophthora culture filtrates that have the capacity to elicit hypersensitive (HR) cell death and disease resistance in tobacco. Later, they became well-established as having features of microbe-associated molecular patterns (MAMPs) and to elicit defences in a variety of plant species. Research on elicitins culminated in the recent cloning of the elicitin response (ELR) cell surface receptor-like protein, from the wild potato Solanum microdontum, which mediates response to a broad range of elicitins. In this review, we provide an overview on elicitins and the plant responses they elicit. We summarize the state of the art by describing what we consider to be the nine most important features of elicitin biology

Risk Factors for Colorectal Cancer in Patients with Multiple Serrated Polyps: A Cross-Sectional Case Series from Genetics Clinics

Patients with multiple serrated polyps are at an increased risk for developing colorectal cancer (CRC). Recent reports have linked cigarette smoking with the subset of CRC that develops from serrated polyps. The aim of this work therefore was to investigate the association between smoking and the risk of CRC in high-risk genetics clinic patients presenting with multiple serrated polyps. Methods and Findings We identified 151 Caucasian individuals with multiple serrated polyps including at least 5 outside the rectum, and classified patients into non-smokers, current or former smokers at the time of initial diagnosis of polyposis. Cases were individuals with multiple serrated polyps who presented with CRC. Controls were individuals with multiple serrated polyps and no CRC. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to estimate associations between smoking and CRC with adjustment for age at first presentation, sex and co-existing traditional adenomas, a feature that has been consistently linked with CRC risk in patients with multiple serrated polyps. CRC was present in 56 (37%) individuals at presentation. Patients with at least one adenoma were 4 times more likely to present with CRC compared with patients without adenomas (OR = 4.09; 95%CI 1.27 to 13.14; P = 0.02). For females, the odds of CRC decreased by 90% in current smokers as compared to never smokers (OR = 0.10; 95%CI 0.02 to 0.47; P = 0.004) after adjusting for age and adenomas. For males, there was no relationship between current smoking and CRC. There was no statistical evidence of an association between former smoking and CRC for both sexes. Conclusion A decreased odds for CRC was identified in females with multiple serrated polyps who currently smoke, independent of age and the presence of a traditional adenoma. Investigations into the biological basis for these observations could lead to non-smoking-related therapies being developed to decrease the risk of CRC and colectomy in these patients.Daniel D. Buchanan, Kevin Sweet, Musa Drini, Mark A. Jenkins, Aung Ko Win, Dallas R. English, Michael D. Walsh, Mark Clendenning, Diane M. McKeone, Rhiannon J. Walters, Aedan Roberts, Sally-Ann Pearson, Erika Pavluk, John L. Hopper, Michael R. Gattas, Jack Goldblatt, Jill George, Graeme K. Suthers, Kerry D. Phillips, Sonja Woodal, Julie Arnold, Kathy Tucker, Amanda Muir, Michael Field, Sian Greening, Steven Gallinger, Renee Perrier, John A. Baron, John D. Potter, Robert Haile, Wendy Franke, Albert de la Chapelle, Finlay Macrae, Christophe Rosty, Neal I. Walker, Susan Parry and Joanne P. Youn

Cumulative Burden of Colorectal Cancer-Associated Genetic Variants Is More Strongly Associated With Early-Onset vs Late-Onset Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC, in persons younger than 50 years old) is increasing in incidence; yet, in the absence of a family history of CRC, this population lacks harmonized recommendations for prevention. We aimed to determine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) developed from 95 CRC-associated common genetic risk variants was associated with risk for early-onset CRC. METHODS: We studied risk for CRC associated with a weighted PRS in 12,197 participants younger than 50 years old vs 95,865 participants 50 years or older. PRS was calculated based on single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CRC in a large-scale genome-wide association study as of January 2019. Participants were pooled from 3 large consortia that provided clinical and genotyping data: the Colon Cancer Family Registry, the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and were all of genetically defined European descent. Findings were replicated in an independent cohort of 72,573 participants. RESULTS: Overall associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS were significant for early-onset cancer, and were stronger compared with late-onset cancer (P for interaction = .01); when we compared the highest PRS quartile with the lowest, risk increased 3.7-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.28-4.24) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.80-3.04). This association was strongest for participants without a first-degree family history of CRC (P for interaction = 5.61 × 10-5). When we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles in this group, risk increased 4.3-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.61-5.01) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.70-3.00). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with these findings. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS, we found the cumulative burden of CRC-associated common genetic variants to associate with early-onset cancer, and to be more strongly associated with early-onset than late-onset cancer, particularly in the absence of CRC family history. Analyses of PRS, along with environmental and lifestyle risk factors, might identify younger individuals who would benefit from preventive measures

Discovery of common and rare genetic risk variants for colorectal cancer.

To further dissect the genetic architecture of colorectal cancer (CRC), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 1,439 cases and 720 controls, imputed discovered sequence variants and Haplotype Reference Consortium panel variants into genome-wide association study data, and tested for association in 34,869 cases and 29,051 controls. Findings were followed up in an additional 23,262 cases and 38,296 controls. We discovered a strongly protective 0.3% frequency variant signal at CHD1. In a combined meta-analysis of 125,478 individuals, we identified 40 new independent signals at P < 5 × 10-8, bringing the number of known independent signals for CRC to ~100. New signals implicate lower-frequency variants, Krüppel-like factors, Hedgehog signaling, Hippo-YAP signaling, long noncoding RNAs and somatic drivers, and support a role for immune function. Heritability analyses suggest that CRC risk is highly polygenic, and larger, more comprehensive studies enabling rare variant analysis will improve understanding of biology underlying this risk and influence personalized screening strategies and drug development.Goncalo R Abecasis has received compensation from 23andMe and Helix. He is currently an employee of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Heather Hampel performs collaborative research with Ambry Genetics, InVitae Genetics, and Myriad Genetic Laboratories, Inc., is on the scientific advisory board for InVitae Genetics and Genome Medical, and has stock in Genome Medical. Rachel Pearlman has participated in collaborative funded research with Myriad Genetics Laboratories and Invitae Genetics but has no financial competitive interest

Variation at 2q35 (PNKD and TMBIM1) influences colorectal cancer risk and identifies a pleiotropic effect with inflammatory bowel disease

To identify new risk loci for colorectal cancer (CRC), we conducted a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with independent replication, totalling 13 656 CRC cases and 21 667 controls of European ancestry. The combined analysis identified a new risk association for CRC at 2q35 marked by rs992157 (P = 3.15 x 10(-8), odds ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval = 1.06-1.13), which is intronic to PNKD (paroxysmal non-kinesigenic dyskinesia) and TMBIM1 (transmembrane BAX inhibitor motif containing 1). Intriguingly this susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is in strong linkage disequilibrium (r(2) = 0.90, D' = 0.96) with the previously discovered GWAS SNP rs2382817 for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Following on from this observation we examined for pleiotropy, or shared genetic susceptibility, between CRC and the 200 established IBD risk loci, identifying an additional 11 significant associations (false discovery rate [FDR]) <0.05). Our findings provide further insight into the biological basis of inherited genetic susceptibility to CRC, and identify risk factors that may influence the development of both CRC and IBD.Peer reviewe

Socializing One Health: an innovative strategy to investigate social and behavioral risks of emerging viral threats

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security

Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation &lt;92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p&lt;0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p&lt;0·0001). Interpretation: In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research