On the relationship between period and cohort mortality

In this paper I explore the formal relationship between period and cohort mortality, focusing on a comparison of measures of mean lifespan. I consider not only the usual measures (life expectancy at birth for time periods and birth cohorts) but also some alternative measures that have been proposed recently. I examine (and reject) the claim made by Bongaarts and Feeney that the level of period is distorted, or biased, due to changes in the timing of mortality. I show that their proposed alternative measure, called “tempo-adjusted†life expectancy, is exactly equivalent in its generalized form to a measure proposed by both Brouard and Guillot, the cross-sectional average length of life (or CAL), which substitutes cohort survival probabilities for their period counterparts in the calculation of mean lifespan. I conclude that this measure does not in any sense correct for a distortion in period life expectancy at birth, but rather offers an alternative measure of mean lifespan that is approximately equal to two analytically interesting quantities: 1) the mean age at death in a given year for a hypothetical population subject to observed historical mortality conditions but with a constant annual number of births; and 2) the mean age at death, , for a cohort born years ago. However, I also observe that the trend in period does indeed offer a biased depiction of the pace of change in mean lifespan from cohort to cohort. Holding other factors constant, an historical increase in life expectancy at birth is somewhat faster when viewed from the perspective of cohorts (i.e., year of birth) than from the perspective of periods (i.e., year of death).life expectancy, life span, mortality, tempo-adjusted life expectancy

The Cancer Transition in Japan since 1951

The overall trend of cancer mortality in Japan has been decreasing since the 1960s (age-standardized death rates for ages 30-69), though trends differ enormously among various forms of the disease. Cancer mortality was heavily influenced by Japanese postwar economic recovery, which led to improved living conditions and better control of infectious agents known to cause some common forms of cancer (stomach, cervical). However, Japanese wealth and development have also been associated with risky personal behaviors (smoking, drinking) and other conditions, leading to increases in cancers with no known or else very weak links to infection. This shift away from infectious and toward non-infectious causes of prevalent forms of cancers is called the "cancer transition," by analogy to Omran's "epidemiologic transition." We suggest that the cancer transition described here in the case of Japan must be a part of efforts to revise and update the epidemiologic transition, which should incorporate new knowledge about the role of infection in chronic disease morbidity and mortality.cancer, cancer transition, epidemiologic transition, health, health and development, infectious diseases, Japan, mortality, non-infectious disease

Introduction to the Special Collection “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place: The 1st HMD Symposiumâ€

This introduction to the special collection “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place: The 1st HMD Symposium†describes the Human Mortality Database project and briefly summarizes the Special Collection articles.

Population in the Popular Press, 1946-1987: Towards a Theory of Social Problems

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/51207/1/440.pd

Design and Evaluation of Nextgen Aircraft Separation Assurance Concepts

To support the development and evaluation of future function allocation concepts for separation assurance systems for the Next Generation Air Transportation System, this paper presents the design and human-in-the-loop evaluation of three feasible function allocation concepts that allocate primary aircraft separation assurance responsibilities and workload to: 1) pilots; 2) air traffic controllers (ATC); and 3) automation. The design of these concepts also included rules of the road, separation assurance burdens for aircraft of different equipage levels, and utilization of advanced weather displays paired with advanced conflict detection and resolution automation. Results of the human-in-the-loop simulation show that: a) all the concepts are robust with respect to weather perturbation; b) concept 1 (pilots) had highest throughput, closest to assigned spacing, and fewest violations of speed and altitude restrictions; c) the energy of the aircraft during the descent phase was better managed in concepts 1 and 2 (pilots and ATC) than in concept 3 (automation), in which the situation awareness of pilots and controllers was lowest, and workload of pilots was highest. The paper also discusses further development of these concepts and their augmentation and integration with future air traffic management tools and systems that are being considered for NextGen

Leveraging pre-trained representations to improve access to untranscribed speech from endangered languages

Pre-trained speech representations like wav2vec 2.0 are a powerful tool for automatic speech recognition (ASR). Yet many endangered languages lack sufficient data for pre-training such models, or are predominantly oral vernaculars without a standardised writing system, precluding fine-tuning. Query-by-example spoken term detection (QbE-STD) offers an alternative for iteratively indexing untranscribed speech corpora by locating spoken query terms. Using data from 7 Australian Aboriginal languages and a regional variety of Dutch, all of which are endangered or vulnerable, we show that QbE-STD can be improved by leveraging representations developed for ASR (wav2vec 2.0: the English monolingual model and XLSR53 multilingual model). Surprisingly, the English model outperformed the multilingual model on 4 Australian language datasets, raising questions around how to optimally leverage self-supervised speech representations for QbE-STD. Nevertheless, we find that wav2vec 2.0 representations (either English or XLSR53) offer large improvements (56-86% relative) over state-of-the-art approaches on our endangered language datasets

A microfluidics and agent-based modeling framework for investigating spatial organization in bacterial colonies: The case of Pseudomonas Aeruginosa amd H1-type VI secretion interactions

The factors leading to changes in the organization of microbial assemblages at fine spatial scales are not well characterized or understood. However, they are expected to guide the succession of community development and function toward specific outcomes that could impact human health and the environment. In this study, we put forward a combined experimental and agent-based modeling framework and use it to interpret unique spatial organization patterns of H1-Type VI secretion system (T6SS) mutants of P. aeruginosa under spatial confinement. We find that key parameters, such as T6SS-mediated cell contact and lysis, spatial localization, relative species abundance, cell density and local concentrations of growth substrates and metabolites are influenced by spatial confinement. The model, written in the accessible programming language NetLogo, can be adapted to a variety of biological systems of interest and used to simulate experiments across a broad parameter space. It was implemented and run in a high-throughput mode by deploying it across multiple CPUs, with each simulation representing an individual well within a high-throughput microwell array experimental platform. The microfluidics and agent-based modeling framework we present in this paper provides an effective means by which to connect experimental studies in microbiology to model development. The work demonstrates progress in coupling experimental results to simulation while also highlighting potential sources of discrepancies between real-world experiments and idealized models

Exercise training as S-Klotho protein stimulator in sedentary healthy adults: Rationale, design, and methodology

Aims: The secreted form of the α-Klotho gene (S-Klotho), which is considered a powerful biomarker of longevity, makes it an attractive target as an anti-ageing therapy against functional decline, sarcopenic obesity, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, osteoporosis, and neurodegenerative disorders. The S-Klotho plasma levels could be related to physical exercise inasmuch physical exercise is involved in physiological pathways that regulate the SKlotho plasma levels. FIT-AGEING will determine the effect of different training modalities on the S-Klotho plasma levels (primary outcome) in sedentary healthy adults. FIT-AGEING will also investigate the physiological consequences of activating the klotho gene (secondary outcomes). Methods: FIT-AGEING will recruit 80 sedentary, healthy adults (50% women) aged 45–65 years old. Eligible participants will be randomly assigned to a non-exercise group, i.e. the control group, (n=20), a physical activity recommendation from World Health Organization group (n=20), a high intensity interval training group (n=20), and a whole-body electromyostimulation group (n=20). The laboratory measurements will be taken at the baseline and 12 weeks later including the S-Klotho plasma levels, physical fitness (cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength), body composition, basal metabolic rate, heart rate variability, maximal fat oxidation, health blood biomarkers, free-living physical activity, sleep habits, reaction time, cognitive variables, and health-related questionnaires. We will also obtain dietary habits data and cardiovascular disease risk factors.The study is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education (FPU14/04172 and FPU15/03960). The study was partially supported by the University of Granada, Plan Propio de Investigación 2016, Excellence actions: Units of Excellence; Unit of Excellence on Exercise and Health (UCEES)