Polls to probabilities: comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

Forecasting election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares, and others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. In this paper we set out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluate the performance of prediction markets and opinion polls. We compare along two dimensions: bias and precision. We find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, and prediction markets on precision

When are prediction market prices most informative?

Prediction markets are a popular platform for eliciting incentivised crowd predictions. In this paper, we examine variation in the information contained in prediction market prices by studying Intrade prices on U.S. elections around the release of opinion polls. We find that poll releases stimulate an immediate uptick in trading activity. However, much of this activity involves relatively inexperienced traders and, as a result, price efficiency declines in the immediate aftermath of a poll release. It is not until more experienced traders enter the market in the following hours that price efficiency recovers. More generally, this suggests that information releases do not necessarily improve prediction market forecasts, but may instead attract noise traders who temporarily reduce price efficiency

Re-establishing the ‘outsiders’: English press coverage of the 2015 FIFA Women’s World Cup

In 2015, the England Women’s national football team finished third at the Women’s World Cup in Canada. Alongside the establishment of the Women’s Super League in 2011, the success of the women’s team posed a striking contrast to the recent failures of the England men’s team and in doing so presented a timely opportunity to examine the negotiation of hegemonic discourses on gender, sport and football. Drawing upon an ‘established-outsider’ approach, this article examines how, in newspaper coverage of the England women’s team, gendered constructions revealed processes of alteration, assimilation and resistance. Rather than suggesting that ‘established’ discourses assume a normative connection between masculinity and football, the findings reveal how gendered ‘boundaries’ were both challenged and protected in newspaper coverage. Despite their success, the discursive positioning of the women’s team as ‘outsiders’, served to (re)establish men’s football as superior, culturally salient and ‘better’ than the women’s team/game. Accordingly, we contend that attempts to build and, in many instances, rediscover the history of women’s football, can be used to challenge established cultural representations that draw exclusively from the history of the men’s game. In such instances, the 2015 Women’s World Cup provides a historical moment from which the women’s game can be relocated in a context of popular culture

Consensus guidelines for the use and interpretation of angiogenesis assays

The formation of new blood vessels, or angiogenesis, is a complex process that plays important roles in growth and development, tissue and organ regeneration, as well as numerous pathological conditions. Angiogenesis undergoes multiple discrete steps that can be individually evaluated and quantified by a large number of bioassays. These independent assessments hold advantages but also have limitations. This article describes in vivo, ex vivo, and in vitro bioassays that are available for the evaluation of angiogenesis and highlights critical aspects that are relevant for their execution and proper interpretation. As such, this collaborative work is the first edition of consensus guidelines on angiogenesis bioassays to serve for current and future reference

Potential role of fecal volatile organic compounds as biomarkers of chemically induced intestinal inflammation in mice

Metabolomics studies have the potential to discover biomarkers. Fecal volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have been found to differ in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and irritable bowel syndrome. Murine models of colitis offer an alternative to human studies in which diet can be controlled. We aimed to investigate fecal VOCs from mice in which acute and chronic colitis was induced. Groups of adult C57BL/6 mice underwent treatment with oral dextran sulfate sodium to induce colitis. Control mice received no treatment or had acute osmotic diarrhea induced with magnesium sulfate. Colitis was assessed clinically and by histology. Samples of feces and/or colon contents were collected and volatile compounds determined by solid phase microextraction–GC-MS. Statistics were performed using metabolomics tools. Acute colitis was associated with an increase in aldehydes and chronic colitis with one specific ketone. Osmotic diarrhea was associated with a significant reduction in VOCs, especially alcohols. We provide evidence that the identification of disease-associated VOC concentration ranges, combined with specific marker compounds, would potentially increase the likelihood of finding an inflammatory bowel disease–specific fecal VOC marker profile.—Reade, S., Williams, J. M., Aggio, R., Duckworth, C. A., Mahalhal, A., Hough, R., Pritchard, D. M., Probert, C. S., Potential role of fecal volatile organic compounds as biomarkers of chemically induced intestinal inflammation in mice