The development of the hydraulic biotope concept within a catchment based hierarchical geomorphological model

This thesis develops a technique for the identification, classification and quantification of instream flow environments. These features have been traditionally referred to as 'habitats' by lotic ecologists, in this research they are termed 'hydraulic biotopes'. The hydraulic biotope is the lowest of six nested levels of a hierarchical geomorphological model. This model has been developed as a tool to assist river managers, researchers and conservationists to categorise or classify rivers with respect to their geomorphic characteristics. Each level of the model provides data at a different level of resolution. This ranges from the broad scale catchment data to the site specific 'habitat' or hydraulic biotope data. Although this thesis is primarily concerned with the development of the hydraulic biotope, the interaction of all catchment variables needs to be recognised. Detailed analysis of hydraulic biotope data in the Buffalo River are presented within the broader hierarchical model. Consultation with lotic ecologists, together with a review of ecological literature, emphasised the need for a standardised terminology for the classification of ecologically significant instream flow environments. At present a fairly haphazard 'habitat' classification tends to be carried out by most researchers, this often leads to confusion in the identification and naming of different hydraulic biotopes ('habitats'). This confusion is exaggerated by the sharing of terminology between lotic ecology and fluvial geomorphology, usually for the categorisation of different types of features. A review of the ecological literature emphasises the importance of flow hydraulics within a river to describe the distribution of biota. The hydraulic variables considered to be most significant include velocity and depth. As river morphology directly determines the prevailing distribution of depth, velocity and substratum, it is obvious that there are important links to be made between fluvial geomorphology and lotic ecology. This thesis explores the potential of the hydraulic biotope as a tool to help develop those links. This thesis presents a standardised classification matrix for the identification of hydraulic biotopes. The matrix is simply based on water surface characteristics together with channel bed substratum. The validity of this matrix is tested by statistical analysis of hydraulic variables quantifying flow conditions within the various hydraulic biotope classes. Data is presented from four different river systems, each representing a different sedimentological environment. Where possible the influence of discharge has been considered. Results from more than 3000 data points show that hydraulic biotopes have distinct hydraulic characteristics in terms of velocity-depth ratio, Froude number, Reynolds number, 'roughness' Reynolds number and shear velocity. These hydraulic indices represent flow conditions both as an average within the water column, and near the bed. Statistical analysis shows that the hydraulic characteristics of the various hydraulic biotope classes are relatively consistent both within different fluvial environments and at different stages of flow. Unlike the morphological unit in which the hydraulic biotope is nested, in stream flow environments are shown to be temporally dynamic. Using the classification matrix as a tool for identification, hydraulic biotopes identified at one discharge are shown to be transformed from one class to another as a response to change in stage. The pattern of transformation is shown to be consistent within different sedimentological environments. An examination of the associations between hydraulic biotopes and morphological units demonstrates that, although some hydraulic biotopes are common to all morphological units (backwater pools, pools and runs), some features have specific associations. In this study rapids were found to be prevalent in bedrock pavement, bedrock pool and plane bed morphology, while cascades, chutes and riffles were common to plane bed, step and riffle morphology. Results from this research indicate that the hydraulic biotope, within the hierarchical geomorphological model, has the potential to aid the prediction of channel adjustment and associated 'habitat' (hydraulic biotope) transformation in response to changes in flow and sediment yield. These are likely to become increasingly important issues as South Africa strives to maintain a balance between the development of water resources to meet the needs of the rapidly expanding population, whilst at the same time maintaining the fluvial environment for sustainable use

CovidNeuroOnc: A UK multicenter, prospective cohort study of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the neuro-oncology service

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected cancer services. Our objective was to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on decision making and the resulting outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed or recurrent intracranial tumors.MethodsWe performed a multicenter prospective study of all adult patients discussed in weekly neuro-oncology and skull base multidisciplinary team meetings who had a newly diagnosed or recurrent intracranial (excluding pituitary) tumor between 01 April and 31 May 2020. All patients had at least 30-day follow-up data. Descriptive statistical reporting was used.ResultsThere were 1357 referrals for newly diagnosed or recurrent intracranial tumors across 15 neuro-oncology centers. Of centers with all intracranial tumors, a change in initial management was reported in 8.6% of cases (n = 104/1210). Decisions to change the management plan reduced over time from a peak of 19% referrals at the start of the study to 0% by the end of the study period. Changes in management were reported in 16% (n = 75/466) of cases previously recommended for surgery and 28% of cases previously recommended for chemotherapy (n = 20/72). The reported SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was similar in surgical and non-surgical patients (2.6% vs. 2.4%, P > .9).ConclusionsDisruption to neuro-oncology services in the UK caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was most marked in the first month, affecting all diagnoses. Patients considered for chemotherapy were most affected. In those recommended surgical treatment this was successfully completed. Longer-term outcome data will evaluate oncological treatments received by these patients and overall survival

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

CD19+CD24hiCD38hi B Cells Are Expanded in Juvenile Dermatomyositis and Exhibit a Pro-Inflammatory Phenotype After Activation Through Toll-Like Receptor 7 and Interferon-α

Juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) is a rare form of childhood autoimmune myositis that presents with proximal muscle weakness and skin rash. B cells are strongly implicated in the pathogenesis of the disease, but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Therefore, the main objective of our study was to investigate mechanisms driving B cell lymphocytosis and define pathological features of B cells in JDM patients. Patients were recruited through the UK JDM Cohort and Biomarker study. Peripheral blood B cell subpopulations were immunophenotyped by flow cytometry. The results identified that immature transitional B cells were significantly expanded in active JDM, actively dividing, and correlated positively with disease activity. Protein and RNAseq analysis revealed high interferon alpha (IFNa) and TLR7-pathway signatures pre-treatment. Stimulation of B cells through TLR7/8 promoted both IL-10 and IL-6 production in controls but failed to induce IL-10 in JDM patient cells. Interrogation of the CD40-CD40L pathway (known to induce B cell IL-10 and IL-6) revealed similar expression of IL-10 and IL-6 in B cells cultured with CD40L from both JDM patients and controls. In conclusion, JDM patients with active disease have a significantly expanded immature transitional B cell population which correlated with the type I IFN signature. Activation through TLR7 and IFNa may drive the expansion of immature transitional B cells in JDM and skew the cells toward a pro-inflammatory phenotype

Cleavage modification did not alter blastomere fates during bryozoan evolution

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.The study was funded by the core budget of the Sars Centre and by The European Research Council Community’s Framework Program Horizon 2020 (2014–2020) ERC grant agreement 648861 to A

The development of a geomorphological classification system for the longitudinal zonation of South African rivers

The recognition of the Reserve by the new South African Water Law poses new challenges for river scientists. The ecological water requirement or environmental flow is recognised by that part of the Reserve known as the ecological Reserve. If the ecological Reserve is to be implemented, it must first be defined and quantified for all river systems subject to water related developments. Standard procedures are being developed through the Resource Directed Measures (RDM) of the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry while monitoring the health of South Africa's rivers is taking place through the National River Health Programme (NRHP). Cost effective methods of developing spatial frameworks for both the RDM and NRHP are required. Concepts of longitudinal river zonation were developed by river ecologists in the 1960s and 1970s to assist in the classification of ecologically uniform stretches of rivers. This paper reviews the different zonation concepts and presents a geomorphological classification of South African river zones that is being applied to the RDM and NRHP. The classification is tested on three rivers, the Sabie, Buffalo and Olifants