Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options

The purpose of this paper is twofold: firstly, to identify and quantify the potential costs to the Czech economy should fulfilment of the Maastricht inflation criterion (MIC) require disinflation; and secondly, to discuss and suggest policies geared towards minimising the costs related to meeting the MIC. We assume that the real appreciation of the koruna will be about 1.5% during the reference period. Three disinflation simulations are derived from this assumption. The results show that a decline in inflation by 0.5 p.p., 1 p.p. and 1.5 p.p. leads to a cumulative loss of output reaching about 0.5%, 1% and 1.6% respectively of annual potential GDP over a period of four years. The time restriction imposed on the simulations implies that the shorter the time to reach a given lower level of inflation, the higher the initial increase in the interest rate and the more aggressive the policy rule needed. The simulation results and the likely application of the monetary convergence criteria are relevant to the discussion of policy options. We argue that due to the asymmetry of the Maastricht exchange rate criterion (MERC), allowing for nominal appreciation rather than depreciation, fulfilment of the MIC should be superior. Also, we suggest that the main task for the CNB will be to focus on reaching a level of inflation consistent with the presumed level of the MIC sufficiently early before the reference period. This may require a downward adjustment of the CNB’s inflation point target and an extension of the current policy horizon.Disinflation, EMU entry, euro adoption, Maastricht inflation criterion, policy options, real exchange rate appreciation, output loss.

Venous thromboembolism risk and prophylaxis in hospitalised medically ill patients The ENDORSE Global Survey

Limited data are available regarding the risk for venous thromboembolism (VIE) and VIE prophylaxis use in hospitalised medically ill patients. We analysed data from the global ENDORSE survey to evaluate VTE risk and prophylaxis use in this population according to diagnosis, baseline characteristics, and country. Data on patient characteristics, VIE risk, and prophylaxis use were abstracted from hospital charts. VTE risk and prophylaxis use were evaluated according to the 2004 American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) guidelines. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify factors associated with use of ACCP-recommended prophylaxis. Data were evaluated for 37,356 hospitalised medical patients across 32 countries. VIE risk varied according to medical diagnosis, from 31.2% of patients with gastrointestinal/hepatobiliary diseases to 100% of patients with acute heart failure, active noninfectious respiratory disease, or pulmonary infection (global rate, 41.5%). Among those at risk for VTE, ACCP-recommended prophylaxis was used in 24.4% haemorrhagic stroke patients and 40-45% of cardiopulmonary disease patients (global rate, 39.5%). Large differences in prophylaxis use were observed among countries. Markers of disease severity, including central venous catheters, mechanical ventilation, and admission to intensive care units, were strongly associated with use of ACCP-recommended prophylaxis. In conclusion, VIE risk varies according to medical diagnosis. Less than 40% of at-risk hospitalised medical patients receive ACCP-recommended prophylaxis. Prophylaxis use appears to be associated with disease severity rather than medical diagnosis. These data support the necessity to improve implementation of available guidelines for evaluating VIE risk and providing prophylaxis to hospitalised medical patients

Venous Thromboembolism Risk and Prophylaxis in the Acute Care Hospital Setting (ENDORSE Survey) Findings in Surgical Patients

Objective: To evaluate venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk in patients who underwent a major operation, including the use of, and factors influencing, American College of Chest Physicians-recommended types of VTE prophylaxis