Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ~ 45% tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60% and 70% tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ~60 %–65%tree cover and steeply declined at > 65% tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ~15 %–20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that longterm fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene

Recent trends in teaching Astronomy

The purpose of the Department of Physics's close association with the Gothard Observatory is to provide a foundation in basic astronomy and astrophysics during 3 semesters in Berzsenyi Daniel Teacher Training College for future Hungarian Elementary School teachers who will teach pupils to age 14 years. The courses of lectures include: Solar System, Sun, Stars, Stellar Interiors and Atmospheres, Astronomical Techniques, Extragalactic Astronomy, Cosmology. Students have outstanding opportunities to learn and to apply in their research the development of instrumentation, and the techniques of observation with telescopes. Excellent modern computing facilities for support of data analysis and theoretical work are available at Gothard Observatory. Library facilities contain a wealth of astronomical reference materials. Students have direct access to many facilities of the Department and Observatory

Drivers of Holocene treeline and timberline changes in the Retezat Mountains (South Carpathians, Romania)

Four high-altitude lake sediment sequences (Lake Brazi, 1740 m .as.l., Lake Gales 1990 m a.s.l., Lake Bucura, 2040 m a.s.l. and Lake Lia, 1910 m a.s.l.) were analyzed using multi-proxy methods (pollen, stomata, plant macrofossil and micro- and macrocharcoal) in order to study responses of treeline and alpine/subalpine vegetation to climate change and human impact during the last 15000 years. Observing and reconstructing the changes of the position and structure of the treeline can provide valuable information on biotic and other factors such as human activities. Sediment cores were taken from two lakes on the northern slope (Lake Brazi and Lake Gales) and two lakes from the southern slope (Lake Lia and Lake Bucura) in the Retezat Mountains, South Carpathians (Romania).</p

Treeline and timberline dynamics on the northern and southern slopes of the Retezat Mountains (Romania) during the late glacial and the Holocene

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA To investigate treeline and timberline dynamics in the Retezat Mountains (Romanian Carpathians), late glacial and Holocene sediment sequences from four lakes were studied. The south and north slopes of the mountain range were compared using two lakes from the north flank (Lake Brazi, 1740 m a.s.l. and Lake Gales, 1990 m a.s.l) and two from the south flank (Lake Lia, 1910 m a.s.l. and Lake Bucura, 2040 m a.s.l.). Macrofossil and stomata analyses were performed to assess changes in the local vegetation, supplemented by pollen, charcoal and loss-on-ignition analyses. Our results show that treeline reached Lake Brazi on the northern side during the late glacial (ca. 14,000 cal yr BP) and then Lake Gales between 11,000 and 10,800 cal yr BP. During the early Holocene the upper limit of closed forest, the timberline, reached and passed Lake Brazi and has stayed above it since, but it has never reached Lake Gales at 1990 m a.s.l. The expansion of Larix decidua in the late glacialand early Holocene around Lake Brazi is unique. Stomata and macrofossils of Abies alba are also more abundant in the northern records. On the southern flank, treeline reached Lake Lia at around 12,000 cal yr BP, and was either very close to or at the elevation of Lake Bucura between ca. 8600 and 3000 cal yr BP. Timberline reached Lake Lia at ca. 8000 cal yr BP, some 3000 years after Lake Brazi, only 170 m lower on the north slope. Local fire events delayed the advance of timberline around Lake Lia in the early Holocene in a dry continental climate. The surrounding forest was dominated by Picea abies with individuals of Pinus cembra and stands of P. mugo until about 3000 cal yr BP when timberline retreated below the lake. Maximum elevation of timberline was attained between ca. 8000 and 3000 cal yr BP, after which it descended in response to climate cooling. Regional climate change appears to be the main driver of treeline dynamics, but it was modified by local climatic differences due to slope aspect. The first signs of human disturbance appeared ca. 4200 cal yr BP, when naturally open areas were used as alpine pastures. Human impact in the treeline ecotone, mainly burning and grazing, was intensified after ca. 2600 cal yr BP, contributing to the widening of the ecotone and the lowering of the timberline.status: publishe

Small-scale moisture availability increase during the 8.2-ka climatic event inferred from biotic proxy records in the South Carpathians (SE Romania)

In this paper, we present high-resolution early Holocene pollen, plant macrofossil, charcoal, diatom, biogenic silica, and loss-on-ignition records from a mountain lake in the South Carpathians in order to reveal ecosystem response to the 8.2-ka climatic oscillation. We found significant changes both in terrestrial vegetation and lake diatom assemblages in the northern slope of the Retezat Mts between c. 8300 and 8000 cal. yr BP. Rapid changes in relative frequencies and pollen accumulation rates of the major deciduous pollen types associated with peaks in microcharcoal accumulation rates suggested that vegetation disturbance mainly took place in the mixed-deciduous forest zone, where woodland fires partially destroyed the populations of Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus, and Corylus avellana and facilitated the establishment of Carpinus betulus in the forest openings. The diatom record furthermore showed the spread of a planktonic diatom species, Aulacoseira valida, at 8150 cal. yr BP, coincidently with a short-lived expansion of C. betulus. Since diatom blooms mainly occur in spring in the Retezat Mts, increased spring water depth and increased water turbulence were inferred from these data. The expansion of C. betulus against F. excelsior and C. avellana at the same time suggested a modest increase in available moisture during the growing season. Taken together, these data imply that during the 8.2-ka event, winter and spring season available moisture increased, while summers were characterized by alternating moist/cool and dry/warm conditions

Preventing Plasmon Coupling between Gold Nanorods Improves the Sensitivity of Photoacoustic Detection of Labeled Stem Cells <i>in Vivo</i>

Gold nanorods are excellent contrast agents for imaging technologies which rely on near-infrared absorption such as photoacoustic imaging. For cell tracking applications, the cells of interest are labeled with the contrast agent prior to injection. However, after uptake into cells by endocytosis, the confinement and high concentration in endosomes leads to plasmon band broadening and reduced absorbance. This would limit the potential of multispectral optoacoustic tomography in terms of spectral processing and, consequently, sensitivity. Here, we show that steric hindrance provided by silica coating of the nanorods leads to the preservation of their spectral properties and improved photoacoustic sensitivity. This strategy allowed the detection and monitoring of as few as 2 × 10⁴ mesenchymal stem cells in mice over a period of 15 days with a high spatial resolution. Importantly, the silica-coated nanorods did not affect the viability or differentiation potential of the transplanted mesenchymal stem cells

EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. METHODS: The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit‐learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross‐validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross‐validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). RESULTS: The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy‐to‐use web application in the Streamlit Python‐based framework (http://easy‐app.org/). CONCLUSIONS: The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model

Fire risk modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in Eastern and Central Europe

International audienceWildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge forunderstanding fire-climate-vegetation interactions is to quantify the effect vegetation has in mediating fire regime. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover and dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burned in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of Central and Eastern Europe over the past 12 ka BP years. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and novel statistical modelling. Biomass burned was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid Holocene in all three ecoregions, but diverged more markedly over the past 3-4 ka BP. Although the climate was an important driver of fire hazard during the warm and dry early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the strongest predictor of past biomass burning. In temperate forests, biomass burned was high at ~ 45% tree cover and decreased strongly towards 60% tree cover. In needleleaf dominated forests, biomass burned was highest at ~60-65% tree cover and abruptly declined at >65% tree cover. Biomass burned also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ~15-20%, although this relationship was highly dynamic depending on land use intensity throughout ignition and fuel type and availability. Our observations cover the full range of Holocene climate variability and land cover changes and illustrates that percentages of land cover is a key predictor of the probability of fire occurrence over timescales of centuries to millennia. We suggest that long-term fire risk may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of theHolocene

Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3-4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ∼ 45% tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60% and 70% tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ∼60 %-65%tree cover and steeply declined at > 65% tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ∼15 %-20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that longterm fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene