Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% 10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% 5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million 6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million 2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million 1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million 67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% 48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million 22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% 15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million 19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% 13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million 23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% 16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million 22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% 16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Identification and prevalence of CD8(+) T-cell responses directed against Epstein-Barr virus-encoded latent membrane protein 1 and latent membrane protein 2

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is associated with several human malignancies that each show different viral gene expression profiles. In malignancies such as Hodgkin's disease and nasopharyngeal carcinoma only Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1) and varying levels of latent membrane proteins 1 and 2 (LMP1 and -2) are expressed. Since endogenously expressed EBNA1 is protected from CTL recognition, LMP1 and LMP2 are the most likely target antigens for anti-tumor immunotherapy. Therefore, we sought to identify in a systematic way CD8(+) T-cell responses directed against eptitopes derived from LMP1 and LMP2. Using IFNgamma-ELISPOT assays of interferon-gamma release, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of healthy donors were screened with peptide panels (15 mer overlapping by 10) spanning the LMP1 and LMP2 sequences of the prototype EBV strain B95.8. When positive responses were found, CD4(+) or CD8(+) T cells were depleted from donor PBMC to determine the origin of the responder population. We detected CD8(+) T-cell responses to LMP1 in 9/50(18%) donors and to LMP2 in 15/28 (54%) donors. In addition to the already described epitopes, 3 new LMP1- and 5 new LMP2-derived CD8(+) epitopes were identified. In most donors LMP1- and LMP2-specific CD8(+) precursor frequencies were low compared with precursors against immunodominant EBV epitopes from latent (EBNA3A, -3B and -3C) and lytic cycle antigens. These results demonstrate that CD8(+) memory T cell responses to LMP1 and especially to LMP2 do exist in Caucasians, albeit at low levels and could potentially be exploited for therapeutic use

Antibody responses to Epstein-Barr virus-encoded latent membrane protein-1 (LMP1) and expression of LMP1 in juvenile Hodgkin's disease

A large group of juvenile Hodgkin's disease patients (n = 242, mean age 11.7 years, 75% [n = 181] seropositive) was evaluated for anti-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antibody responses and the presence of EBV-encoded EBER-RNA and latent membrane protein-1 (LMP1)-protein expression in the tumor. The molecular diversity of anti-EBV antibody responses in Hodgkin's disease patients with EBV-positive and-negative tumors was studied by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot. Using purified recombinant LMP1 protein as antigen, the presence of antibodies to LMP1 was related to expression of LMP1 in the tumor cells and specific EBV-serological patterns. Antibodies to LMP1 were detected in 30% of the EBV-seropositive Hodgkin's disease patients. The presence of antibodies to LMP1 was not associated with a distinct anti-EBV antibody diversity profile (ELISA), but a significantly higher percentage of patients with antibodies to LMP1 had antibodies to ZEBRA and viral capsid antigen (VCA)-p18 (Immunoblot). Significantly more patients with an EBV-positive tumor had detectable antibody responses to LMP1, but the presence of antibodies to LMP1 did not reflect the expression of LMP1 protein in the tumor cells. Interestingly, all patients with the strongest antibody responses to LMP1 had EBV-negative tumors, suggesting immunological selection in vivo

Monitoring of Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Load in Peripheral Blood by Quantitative Competitive PCR

A competitive quantitative PCR (Q-PCR) assay combined with simple silica-based DNA extraction was developed for monitoring of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA load in unfractionated peripheral blood. The Q-PCR is based on competitive coamplification of a highly conserved 213-bp region of the EBNA-1 open reading frame with an internal standard (IS), added in a known concentration. The IS has the same amplicon length and base composition as the wild-type (WT) EBNA-1 amplicon but differs in 23 internally randomized bases. Competitive coamplification yields two PCR products that are quantified by enzyme immunoassay or by electrochemiluminescence detection, with probes specific for the 23 differing internal nucleotides. The Q-PCR has a sensitivity of 10 copies of either WT or IS plasmid DNA. The Q-PCR was validated by quantification of known amounts of plasmid containing the WT EBNA-1 target. Furthermore, we determined EBV genome copy numbers in different cell lines. For EBV quantification in clinical samples, DNA was isolated from lysed whole blood by silica-affinity purification. Forty-six percent of healthy donor peripheral blood samples were positive by Q-PCR. In most of these samples, viral load was less than 2,000 EBV copies/ml of blood. In peripheral blood samples from two AIDS-related non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients, elevated EBV loads (up to 120,000 copies/ml) were observed, which decreased upon therapy. In Burkitt’s lymphoma patients, up to 4,592,000 EBV genome copies/ml of blood were detected. In conclusion, the EBNA-1-based Q-PCR assay provides a reproducible, accurate, and easy method for studying the relationship between EBV load and clinical parameters

In vivo transcription of the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) BamHI-A region without associated in vivo BARF0 protein expression in multiple EBV-associated disorders

The in vivo expression of the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) BamHI-A rightward transcripts (BARTs) as well as the putative BART-encoded BARF0 and RK-BARF0 proteins in various EBV-associated malignancies was investigated. RT-PCRs specific for the different splice variants of the BARTs and both a nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assay and an RT-PCR specific for the BARF0 ORF were used. Abundant transcription of BARTs was found in EBV-associated Hodgkin's lymphomas, Burkitt's lymphomas (BL), T-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorders, AIDS-related lymphomas and gastric carcinomas. Using RNA in situ hybridization (RISH), BARTs were detected within the neoplastic cells of these malignancies. BARTs encoding RK-BARF0 were not detected. The BARTs detected were shown possibly to encode the RPMS1 and BARF0 proteins, based on their splicing. However, BARTs actually harbouring the BARF0 ORF were detected only in specimens containing a relatively large number of EBV-positive cells. New monoclonal antibodies against the BARF0 protein were generated that efficiently recognized prokaryotic and eukaryotic recombinant BARF0. However, the BARF0 protein was not detected in clinical samples, nor in EBV-positive cell lines, even though these were positive for BARTs by RISH and/or BARF0 RNA in vitro analysis. Using immunoblot analysis, no antibodies against baculovirus-expressed BARF0 protein were detected in the sera of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients, BL patients and Hodgkin's disease patients, patients with chronic EBV infection, infectious mononucleosis patients or EBV-positive healthy donors. Thus, BARTs containing the BARF0 ORF are expressed in vivo but the BARF0 protein cannot be detected and may be expressed only marginally. It is concluded that the BARF0 protein is unlikely to play a role in vivo in EBV-positive malignancies