Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows

The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd’s incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd’s lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level

Double-logs, Gribov-Lipatov reciprocity and wrapping

We study analytical properties of the five-loop anomalous dimension of twist-2 operators at negative even values of Lorentz spin. Following L. N. Lipatov and A. I. Onishchenko, we have found two possible generalizations of double-logarithmic equation, which allow to predict a lot of poles of anomalous dimension of twist-2 operators at all orders of perturbative theory from the known results. Second generalization is related with the reciprocity-respecting function, which is a single-logarithmic function in this case. We have found, that the knowledge of first orders of the reciprocity-respecting function gives all-loop predictions for the highest poles. Obtained predictions can be used for the reconstruction of a general form of the wrapping corrections for twist-2 operators.Comment: 17 pages, references adde

Six-Loop Anomalous Dimension of Twist-Three Operators in N=4 SYM

The result for the six-loop anomalous dimension of twist-three operators in the planar N=4 SYM theory is presented. The calculations were performed along the paper arXiv:0912.1624. This result provides a new data for testing the proposed spectral equations for planar AdS/CFT correspondence.Comment: 19 pages, typos corrected, details adde

Search for CP violation in D0 and D+ decays

A high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the FOCUS (E831) experiment at Fermilab has been used to search for CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay modes D+ to K-K+pi+, D0 to K-K+ and D0 to pi-pi+. We have measured the following CP asymmetry parameters: A_CP(K-K+pi+) = +0.006 +/- 0.011 +/- 0.005, A_CP(K-K+) = -0.001 +/- 0.022 +/- 0.015 and A_CP(pi-pi+) = +0.048 +/- 0.039 +/- 0.025 where the first error is statistical and the second error is systematic. These asymmetries are consistent with zero with smaller errors than previous measurements.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Developmental features of cotton fibre middle lamellae in relation to cell adhesion and cell detachment in cultivars with distinct fibre qualities.

Background: Cotton fibre quality traits such as fibre length, strength, and degree of maturation are determined by genotype and environment during the sequential phases of cotton fibre development (cell elongation, transition to secondary cell wall construction and cellulose deposition). The cotton fibre middle lamella (CFML) is crucial for both cell adhesion and detachment processes occurring during fibre development. To explore the relationship between fibre quality and the pace at which cotton fibres develop, a structural and compositional analysis of the CFML was carried out in several cultivars with different fibre properties belonging to four commercial species: Gossypium hirsutum, G. barbadense, G. herbaceum and G. arboreum. Results: Cotton fibre cell adhesion, through the cotton fibre middle lamella (CFML), is a developmentally regulated process determined by genotype. The CFML is composed of de-esterified homogalacturonan, xyloglucan and arabinan in all four fibre-producing cotton species: G. hirsutum, G. barbadense, G. herbaceum and G. arboreum. Conspicuous paired cell wall bulges are a feature of the CFML of two G. hirsutum cultivars from the onset of fibre cell wall detachment to the start of secondary cell wall deposition. Xyloglucan is abundant in the cell wall bulges and in later stages pectic arabinan is absent from these regions. Conclusions: The CFML of cotton fibres is re-structured during the transition phase. Paired cell wall bulges, rich in xyloglucan, are significantly more evident in the G. hirsutum cultivars than in other cotton species

The Correlation between Mixing Length and Metallicity on the Giant Branch: Implications for Ages in the Gaia Era

In the updated APOGEE-Kepler catalog, we have asteroseismic and spectroscopic data for over 3000 first ascent red giants. Given the size and accuracy of this sample, these data offer an unprecedented test of the accuracy of stellar models on the post-main-sequence. When we compare these data to theoretical predictions, we find a metallicity dependent temperature offset with a slope of around 100 K per dex in metallicity. We find that this effect is present in all model grids tested, and that theoretical uncertainties in the models, correlated spectroscopic errors, and shifts in the asteroseismic mass scale are insufficient to explain this effect. Stellar models can be brought into agreement with the data if a metallicity-dependent convective mixing length is used, with Delta alpha(ML), YREC similar to 0.2 per dex in metallicity, a trend inconsistent with the predictions of three-dimensional stellar convection simulations. If this effect is not taken into account, isochrone ages for red giants from the Gaia data will be off by as much as a factor of two even at modest deviations from solar metallicity ([Fe/H]- -0.5)

Consensus on circulatory shock and hemodynamic monitoring. Task force of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine.

OBJECTIVE: Circulatory shock is a life-threatening syndrome resulting in multiorgan failure and a high mortality rate. The aim of this consensus is to provide support to the bedside clinician regarding the diagnosis, management and monitoring of shock. METHODS: The European Society of Intensive Care Medicine invited 12 experts to form a Task Force to update a previous consensus (Antonelli et al.: Intensive Care Med 33:575-590, 2007). The same five questions addressed in the earlier consensus were used as the outline for the literature search and review, with the aim of the Task Force to produce statements based on the available literature and evidence. These questions were: (1) What are the epidemiologic and pathophysiologic features of shock in the intensive care unit ? (2) Should we monitor preload and fluid responsiveness in shock ? (3) How and when should we monitor stroke volume or cardiac output in shock ? (4) What markers of the regional and microcirculation can be monitored, and how can cellular function be assessed in shock ? (5) What is the evidence for using hemodynamic monitoring to direct therapy in shock ? Four types of statements were used: definition, recommendation, best practice and statement of fact. RESULTS: Forty-four statements were made. The main new statements include: (1) statements on individualizing blood pressure targets; (2) statements on the assessment and prediction of fluid responsiveness; (3) statements on the use of echocardiography and hemodynamic monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: This consensus provides 44 statements that can be used at the bedside to diagnose, treat and monitor patients with shock

The Dijet Mass Spectrum and a Search for Quark Compositeness in bar{p}p Collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

Using the DZero detector at the 1.8 TeV pbarp Fermilab Tevatron collider, we have measured the inclusive dijet mass spectrum in the central pseudorapidity region |eta_jet| < 1.0 for dijet masses greater than 200 Gev/c^2. We have also measured the ratio of spectra sigma(|eta_jet| < 0.5)/sigma(0.5 < |eta_jet| < 1.0). The order alpha_s^3 QCD predictions are in good agreement with the data and we rule out models of quark compositeness with a contact interaction scale < 2.4 TeV at the 95% confidence level.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Search For Heavy Pointlike Dirac Monopoles

We have searched for central production of a pair of photons with high transverse energies in $p\bar p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.8$ TeV using $70 pb^{-1}$ of data collected with the D\O detector at the Fermilab Tevatron in 1994--1996. If they exist, virtual heavy pointlike Dirac monopoles could rescatter pairs of nearly real photons into this final state via a box diagram. We observe no excess of events above background, and set lower 95% C.L. limits of $610, 870, or 1580 GeV/c^2$ on the mass of a spin 0, 1/2, or 1 Dirac monopole.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Search for High Mass Photon Pairs in p-pbar --> gamma-gamma-jet-jet Events at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

A search has been carried out for events in the channel p-barp --> gamma gamma jet jet. Such a signature can characterize the production of a non-standard Higgs boson together with a W or Z boson. We refer to this non-standard Higgs, having standard model couplings to vector bosons but no coupling to fermions, as a "bosonic Higgs." With the requirement of two high transverse energy photons and two jets, the diphoton mass (m(gamma gamma)) distribution is consistent with expected background. A 90(95)% C.L. upper limit on the cross section as a function of mass is calculated, ranging from 0.60(0.80) pb for m(gamma gamma) = 65 GeV/c^2 to 0.26(0.34) pb for m(gamma gamma) = 150 GeV/c^2, corresponding to a 95% C.L. lower limit on the mass of a bosonic Higgs of 78.5 GeV/c^2.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. Replacement has new H->gamma gamma branching ratios and corresponding new mass limit