Ecological theatre and the evolutionary game: how environmental and demographic factors determine payoffs in evolutionary games

In the standard approach to evolutionary games and replicator dynamics, differences in fitness can be interpreted as an excess from the mean Malthusian growth rate in the population. In the underlying reasoning, related to an analysis of "costs" and "benefits", there is a silent assumption that fitness can be described in some type of units. However, in most cases these units of measure are not explicitly specified. Then the question arises: are these theories testable? How can we measure "benefit" or "cost"? A natural language, useful for describing and justifying comparisons of strategic "cost" versus "benefits", is the terminology of demography, because the basic events that shape the outcome of natural selection are births and deaths. In this paper, we present the consequences of an explicit analysis of births and deaths in an evolutionary game theoretic framework. We will investigate different types of mortality pressures, their combinations and the possibility of trade-offs between mortality and fertility. We will show that within this new approach it is possible to model how strictly ecological factors such as density dependence and additive background fitness, which seem neutral in classical theory, can affect the outcomes of the game. We consider the example of the Hawk-Dove game, and show that when reformulated in terms of our new approach new details and new biological predictions are produced

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks

The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city); population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods). Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible

Modelling the strategies for age specific vaccination scheduling during influenza pandemic outbreaks

Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling of vaccination during a pandemic influenza outbreak, when there is a race between the vaccination campaign and the dynamics of the pandemic. Our results agree with some recent studies on that age specificity is paramount to vaccination planning. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures when they are applied during the outbreak. Comparing five possible strategies, we found that age specific scheduling can have a huge impact on the outcome of the epidemic. For the best scheme, the attack rates were up to 10% lower than for other strategies. We demonstrate the importance of early start of the vaccination campaign, since ten days delay may increase the attack rate by up to 6%. Taking into account the delay between developing immunity and vaccination is a key factor in evaluating the impact of vaccination campaigns. We provide a general framework which will be useful for the next pandemic waves as well

Attenuation of N2 amplitude of laser-evoked potentials by theta burst stimulation of primary somatosensory cortex

Theta burst stimulation (TBS) is a special repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) paradigm, where bursts of low-intensity stimuli are applied in the theta frequency. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of neuronavigated TBS over primary somatosensory cortex (SI) on laser-evoked potentials (LEPs) and acute pain perception induced with Tm : YAG laser stimulation. The amplitude changes of the N1, N2, and P2 components of LEPs and related subjective pain rating scores of 12 healthy subjects were analyzed prior to and following continuous TBS (cTBS), intermittent TBS (iTBS), intermediate TBS (imTBS), and sham stimulation. Our results demonstrate that all active TBS paradigms significantly diminished the amplitude of the N2 component, when the hand contralateral to the site of TBS was laser-stimulated. Sham stimulation condition had no significant effect. The subjective pain perception also decreased during the experimental sessions, but did not differ significantly from the sham stimulation condition. The main finding of our study is that TBS over SI diminished the amplitude of the N2 component evoked from the contralateral side without any significant analgesic effects. Furthermore, imTBS produced responses similar to those observed by other forms of TBS induced excitability changes in the SI

Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

Parasympathetic nervous system dysfunction, as identified by pupil light reflex, and its possible connection to hearing impairment

Context Although the pupil light reflex has been widely used as a clinical diagnostic tool for autonomic nervous system dysfunction, there is no systematic review available to summarize the evidence that the pupil light reflex is a sensitive method to detect parasympathetic dysfunction. Meanwhile, the relationship between parasympathetic functioning and hearing impairment is relatively unknown. Objectives To 1) review the evidence for the pupil light reflex being a sensitive method to evaluate parasympathetic dysfunction, 2) review the evidence relating hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity and 3) seek evidence of possible connections between hearing impairment and the pupil light reflex. Methods Literature searches were performed in five electronic databases. All selected articles were categorized into three sections: pupil light reflex and parasympathetic dysfunction, hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity, pupil light reflex and hearing impairment. Results Thirty-eight articles were included in this review. Among them, 36 articles addressed the pupil light reflex and parasympathetic dysfunction. We summarized the information in these data according to different types of parasympathetic-related diseases. Most of the studies showed a difference on at least one pupil light reflex parameter between patients and healthy controls. Two articles discussed the relationship between hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity. Both studies reported a reduced parasympathetic activity in the hearing impaired groups. The searches identified no results for pupil light reflex and hearing impairment. Discussion and Conclusions As the first systematic review of the evidence, our findings suggest that the pupil light reflex is a sensitive tool to assess the presence of parasympathetic dysfunction. Maximum constriction velocity and relative constriction amplitude appear to be the most sensitive parameters. There are only two studies investigating the relationship between parasympathetic activity and hearing impairment, hence further research is needed. The pupil light reflex could be a candidate measurement tool to achieve this goal

A new MRI rating scale for progressive supranuclear palsy and multiple system atrophy: validity and reliability

AIM To evaluate a standardised MRI acquisition protocol and a new image rating scale for disease severity in patients with progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and multiple systems atrophy (MSA) in a large multicentre study. METHODS The MRI protocol consisted of two-dimensional sagittal and axial T1, axial PD, and axial and coronal T2 weighted acquisitions. The 32 item ordinal scale evaluated abnormalities within the basal ganglia and posterior fossa, blind to diagnosis. Among 760 patients in the study population (PSP = 362, MSA = 398), 627 had per protocol images (PSP = 297, MSA = 330). Intra-rater (n = 60) and inter-rater (n = 555) reliability were assessed through Cohen's statistic, and scale structure through principal component analysis (PCA) (n = 441). Internal consistency and reliability were checked. Discriminant and predictive validity of extracted factors and total scores were tested for disease severity as per clinical diagnosis. RESULTS Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability were acceptable for 25 (78%) of the items scored (≥ 0.41). PCA revealed four meaningful clusters of covarying parameters (factor (F) F1: brainstem and cerebellum; F2: midbrain; F3: putamen; F4: other basal ganglia) with good to excellent internal consistency (Cronbach α 0.75-0.93) and moderate to excellent reliability (intraclass coefficient: F1: 0.92; F2: 0.79; F3: 0.71; F4: 0.49). The total score significantly discriminated for disease severity or diagnosis; factorial scores differentially discriminated for disease severity according to diagnosis (PSP: F1-F2; MSA: F2-F3). The total score was significantly related to survival in PSP (p<0.0007) or MSA (p<0.0005), indicating good predictive validity. CONCLUSIONS The scale is suitable for use in the context of multicentre studies and can reliably and consistently measure MRI abnormalities in PSP and MSA. Clinical Trial Registration Number The study protocol was filed in the open clinical trial registry (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov) with ID No NCT00211224