Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: the case of carbon constrained China

China’s energy sector is under pressure to achieve secure and affordable supply and a clear decarbonisation path. We examine the longitudinal trajectory of the Chinese electricity supply security and model the near future supply security based on the 12th 5 year plan. Our deterministic approach combines Shannon-Wiener, Herfindahl-Hirschman and electricity import dependence indices for supply security appraisal. We find that electricity portfolio innovation allows China to provide secure energy supply despite increasing import dependence. It is argued that long-term aggressive deployment of renewable energy will unblock China’s coal-biased technological lock-in and increase supply security in all fronts. However, reduced supply diversity in China during the 1990s will not recover until after 2020s due to the long-term coal lock-in that can threaten to hold China’s back from realising its full potential

Slicing the Pie: How Big Could Carbon Dioxide Removal Be?

The current global dependence on using fossil fuels to meet energy needs continues to increase. If 2°C warming by 2050 is to be prevented, it will become important to adopt strategies that not only avoid CO2 emissions, but also allow for the direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, enabling the intervention of climate change. The primary direct removal methods discussed in this contribution include land management, mineral carbonation and bioenergy and direct air capture with carbon capture and reliable storage. These methods are discussed in detail and their potential for CO2 removal assessed. The global upper bound for annual CO2 removal was estimated to be 12, 10, 6, and 5 GtCO2/yr for BECCS, DACS, land management, and mineral carbonation, respectively – resulting in a cumulative value of about 33 GtCO2/yr. However, in the case of DACS, global data on the overlap of low-emission energy sources and reliable CO2 storage opportunities – set as a qualification for DAC viability – was unavailable and the potential upper bound estimate is thus considered conservative. While direct CO2 removal at the upper bounds identified in this review is insufficient to completely mitigate the projected 1,800 GtCO2 emissions projected by 2050, the cumulative impact of these methods could counteract up to ~60% of these emissions. The upper bounds on the costs associated with the direct CO2 removal methods varied from approximately $100/tCO2 (land management, BECCS, and mineral carbonation) to in excess of$1000/tCO2 (again, these are the upper bounds for costs). In this analysis these direct CO2 removal technologies are found to be technically viable and potentially important options in preventing 2°C warming by 2050. However, caution is warranted in moving forward with implementation of CO2 removal, especially in the case of attempting to rapidly decrease atmospheric concentrations; it is recommended that the risks of scaling up too quickly be weighed against the existing risks associated with global warming. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

Air quality impacts of fuel cell electric hydrogen vehicles with high levels of renewable power generation

The introduction of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) operating on hydrogen is a key strategy to mitigate pollutant emissions from the light duty vehicle (LDV) transportation sector in pursuit of air quality (AQ) improvements. Further, concomitant increases in renewable power generation could assist in achieving benefits via electrolysis-provided hydrogen as a vehicle fuel. However, it is unclear (1) reductions in emissions translate to changes in primary and secondary pollutant concentrations and (2) how effects compare to those from emissions in other transport sectors including heavy duty vehicles (HDV). This work assesses how the adoption of FCEVs in counties expected to support alternative LDV technologies affect atmospheric concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) throughout California (CA) in the year 2055 relative to a gasoline vehicle baseline. Further, impacts of reducing HDV emissions are explored to facilitate comparison among technology classes. A base year emissions inventory is grown to 2055 representing a business-as-usual progression of economic sectors, including primarily petroleum fuel consumption by LDV and HDVs. Emissions are spatially and temporally resolved and used in simulations of atmospheric chemistry and transport to evaluate distributions of primary and secondary pollutants respective to baseline. Results indicate that light-duty FCEV Cases achieve significant reductions in ozone and PM2.5 when LDV market shares reach 50–100% in early adoption counties, including areas distant from deployment sites. Reflecting a cleaner LDV baseline fleet in 2055, emissions from HDVs impact ozone and PM2.5 at comparable or greater levels than light duty FCEVs. Additionally, the importance of emissions from petroleum fuel infrastructure (PFI) activity is demonstrated in impacts on ozone and PM2.5 burdens, with large refinery complexes representing a key source of air pollution in 2055. Results presented provide insight into light duty FCEV deployment strategies that can achieve maximum reductions in ozone and PM2.5 and will assist decision makers in developing effective transportation sector AQ mitigation strategies