Interacting regional-scale regime shifts for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human–environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts

The emergence of international food safety standards and guidelines: understanding the current landscape through a historical approach

Following the Second World War, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) teamed up to construct an International Codex Alimentarius (or 'food code') which emerged in 1963. The Codex Committee on Food Hygiene (CCFH) was charged with the task of developing microbial hygiene standards, although it found itself embroiled in debate with the WHO over the nature these standards should take. The WHO was increasingly relying upon the input of biometricians and especially the International Commission on Microbial Specifications for Foods (ICMSF) which had developed statistical sampling plans for determining the microbial counts in the final end products. The CCFH, however, was initially more focused on a qualitative approach which looked at the entire food production system and developed codes of practice as well as more descriptive end-product specifications which the WHO argued were 'not scientifically correct'. Drawing upon historical archival material (correspondence and reports) from the WHO and FAO, this article examines this debate over microbial hygiene standards and suggests that there are many lessons from history which could shed light upon current debates and efforts in international food safety management systems and approaches

Enabling quantitative data analysis through e-infrastructures

This paper discusses how quantitative data analysis in the social sciences can engage with and exploit an e-Infrastructure. We highlight how a number of activities which are central to quantitative data analysis, referred to as ‘data management’, can benefit from e-infrastructure support. We conclude by discussing how these issues are relevant to the DAMES (Data Management through e-Social Science) research Node, an ongoing project that aims to develop e-Infrastructural resources for quantitative data analysis in the social sciences

Nutrient density of beverages in relation to climate impact

The food chain contributes to a substantial part of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and growing evidence points to the urgent need to reduce GHGs emissions worldwide. Among suggestions were proposals to alter food consumption patterns by replacing animal foods with more plant-based foods. However, the nutritional dimensions of changing consumption patterns to lower GHG emissions still remains relatively unexplored. This study is the first to estimate the composite nutrient density, expressed as percentage of Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR) for 21 essential nutrients, in relation to cost in GHG emissions of the production from a life cycle perspective, expressed in grams of CO2-equivalents, using an index called the Nutrient Density to Climate Impact (NDCI) index. The NDCI index was calculated for milk, soft drink, orange juice, beer, wine, bottled carbonated water, soy drink, and oat drink. Due to low-nutrient density, the NDCI index was 0 for carbonated water, soft drink, and beer and below 0.1 for red wine and oat drink. The NDCI index was similar for orange juice (0.28) and soy drink (0.25). Due to a very high-nutrient density, the NDCI index for milk was substantially higher (0.54) than for the other beverages. Future discussion on how changes in food consumption patterns might help avert climate change need to take both GHG emission and nutrient density of foods and beverages into account

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF

Affordable flow cytometry for enumeration of absolute CD4(+ )T-lymphocytes to identify subtype C HIV-1 infected adults requiring antiretroviral therapy (ART) and monitoring response to ART in a resource-limited setting

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s "3 × 5 program" has spurred efforts to place 3 million people on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) for treatment of AIDS in resource-limited countries. Paradoxically, the cost of CD4(+ )T-lymphocyte count essential for decision-making to commence HIV positive adults on ART as well as for monitoring responses to ART remains unaffordable in most resource-limited countries. Thus, low-cost methods for enumerating CD4(+ )T-lymphocyte are urgently needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate Cyflow cytometry (Cyflow SL, Partec, Munster, Germany) for enumeration of absolute CD4(+ )T-lymphocyte in subtype C HIV-1 seropositive subjects using FACSCount (Becton and Dickinson, Immunocytometry Systems, San Jose, CA, USA) as the "predicate method". METHODS: A total of 150 HIV-1 seropositive subjects were included in the evaluation exercise. Fifty-eight specimens were collected from pregnant HIV-1 seropositive women (subtype C drug resistance study). Twenty-seven specimens were collected from women and their spouses with AIDS followed in a Duke ART study to assess the immunologic and virologic responses to generic ART, comprising Stavudine, Lamivudine and Nevirapine (Stalanev, Varichem Labs, Harare, Zimbabwe). Sixty-five specimens were collected from AIDS patients enrolled in an ongoing Kaposi Sarcoma (KS) study to investigate impact of ART on KS progression. Enumeration of CD4(+ )T-lymphocytes using FACSCount is routinely conducted for all the three studies. The Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe and Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe approved the studies. Whole blood was collected in EDTA vacutainer tubes and aliquoted into two tubes (200 μL in each). CD4(+ )T-lymphocyte counts were enumerated using a Cyflow counter, in the Department of Immunology and a FACSCount in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology within 6 hours of phlebotomy following manufacturers' instructions. RESULTS: Using linear regression analysis, there was a very strong correlation (R = 0.991) between the overall CD4(+ )T-lymphocyte counts obtained by FACSCount and those obtained by Cyflow. When data analysis was stratified by study groups, there was a strong correlation between the FACSCount and Cyflow CD4(+ )T-lymphocyte counts from subjects in the three independent studies; Subtype C resistance (R(2 )= 0.987), Duke ART (R(2 )= 0.980) and KS (R(2 )= 0.994), Table 1. Using Bland-Altman plots, the overall, absolute CD4(+ )T lymphocytes obtained by the two methods were in excellent agreement (mean difference 1.21, 95% Confidence Interval {CI): -2.1 to 3.3). For the 0–250 CD4(+ )T-lymphocytes range, the CD4 counts obtained using FACSCount were also in good agreement with those obtained using Cyflow counter (mean difference = 2.6 cells/μL, 95% CI: -1.1 to 6.3). Similarly, in the 251–500 (mean difference 1.0, cells/μL, 95% CI: -3.7 to 5.6) and the 501–1200 (mean difference = 0.29 cells/μL, 95% CI: -8.1 to 8.7) CD4 T-lymphocytes range, good agreement was observed. CONCLUSION: The Cyflow counter is as accurate as the FACSCount in enumerating absolute CD4(+ )T-lymphocytes in the range 1–1200 cells/μL. Cyflow cytometry is relatively affordable, easy to use technology that is useful not only in identifying HIV seropositive individuals who require ART but also for monitoring immunologic responses to ART

A model of HIV/AIDS population dynamics including ARV treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have recently been used efficiently in management of HIV infection. Pre-exposure prophylaxis consists in the use of an antiretroviral medication to prevent the acquisition of HIV infection by uninfected individuals. We propose a new model for the transmission of HIV/AIDS including ART and PrEP. Our model can be used to test the effects of ART and of the uptake of PrEP in a given population, as we demonstrate through simulations. The model can also be used to estimate future projections of HIV prevalence. We prove global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. We also prove global stability of the endemic equilibrium for the most general case of the model, i.e., which allows for PrEP individuals to default. We include insightful simulations based on recently published South-African data

Standardizing and Scaling up Quality Adolescent Friendly Health Services in Tanzania.

Adolescents in Tanzania require health services that respond to their sexual and reproductive health - and other - needs and are delivered in a friendly and nonjudgemental manner. Systematizing and expanding the reach of quality adolescent friendly health service provision is part of the Tanzanian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare's (MOHSW) multi-component strategy to promote and safeguard the health of adolescents. We set out to identify the progress made by the MOHSW in achieving the objective it had set in its National Adolescent Health and Development Strategy: 2002-2006, to systematize and extend the reach of Adolescent Friendly Health Services (AFHS) in the country. We reviewed plans and reports from the MOHSW and journal articles on AFHS. This was supplemented with several of the authors' experiences of working to make health services in Tanzania adolescent friendly. The MOHSW identified four key problems with what was being done to make health services adolescent friendly in the country - firstly, it was not fully aware of the various efforts under way; secondly, there was no standardized definition of AFHS; thirdly, it had received reports that the quality of the AFHS being provided by some organizations was poor; and fourthly, only small numbers of adolescents were being reached by the efforts that were under way. The MOHSW responded to these problems by mapping existing services, developing a standardized definition of AFHS, charting out what needed to be done to improve their quality and expand their coverage, and integrating AFHS within wider policy and strategy documents and programmatic measurement instruments. It has also taken important preparatory steps to stimulate and support implementation. The MOHSW is aware that the focus of the effort must now shift from the national to the regional, council and local levels. The onus is on regional and council health management teams as well as health facility managers to take the steps needed to ensure that all adolescents in the country obtain the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services they need, delivered in a friendly and non-judgemental manner. But they cannot do this without substantial and ongoing support

Identifying an essential package for school-age child health: economic analysis

This chapter presents the investment case for providing an integrated package of essential health services for children attending primary schools in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). In doing so, it builds on chapter 20 in this volume (Bundy, Schultz, and others 2017), which presents a range of relevant health services for the school- age population and the economic rationale for adminis- tering them through educational systems. This chapter identifies a package of essential health services that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) can aspire to implement through the primary and secondary school platforms. In addition, the chapter considers the design of such programs, including targeting strategies. Upper- middle-income countries and high-income countries (HICs) typically aim to implement such interventions on a larger scale and to include and promote additional health services relevant to their populations. Studies have docu- mented the contribution of school health interventions to a range of child health and educational outcomes, partic- ularly in the United States (Durlak and others 2011; Murray and others 2007; Shackleton and others 2016). Health services selected for the essential package are those that have demonstrated benefits and relevance for children in LMICs. The estimated costs of implementation are drawn from the academic literature. The concept of a package of essential school health interventions and its justification through a cost-benefit perspective was pioneered by Jamison and Leslie (1990). As chapter 20 notes, health services for school-age children can promote educational outcomes, including access, attendance, and academic achievement, by mitigat- ing earlier nutrition and health deprivations and by addressing current infections and nutritional deficiencies (Bundy, Schultz, and others 2017). This age group is partic- ularly at risk for parasitic helminth infections (Jukes, Drake, and Bundy 2008), and malaria has become prevalent in school-age populations as control for younger children delays the acquisition of immunity from early childhood to school age (Brooker and others 2017). Furthermore, school health services are commonly viewed as a means for build- ing and reinforcing healthy habits to lower the risk of non- communicable disease later in life (Bundy 2011). This chapter focuses on packages and programs to reach school-age children, while the previous chapter, chapter 24 (Horton and Black 2017), focuses on early childhood inter- ventions, and the next chapter, chapter 26 (Horton and others 2017), focuses on adolescent interventions. These packages are all part of the same continuum of care from age 5 years to early adulthood, as discussed in chapter 1 (Bundy, de Silva, and others 2017). A particular emphasis of the economic rationale for targeting school-age children is to promote their health and education while they are in the process of learning; many of the interventions that are part of the package have been shown to yield substantial benefits in educational outcomes (Bundy 2011; Jukes, Drake, and Bundy 2008). They might be viewed as health interventions that leverage the investment in education. Schools are an effective platform through which to deliver the essential package of health and nutrition ser- vices (Bundy, Schultz, and others 2017). Primary enroll- ment and attendance rates increased substantially during the Millennium Development Goals era, making schools a delivery platform with the potential to reach large num- bers of children equitably. Furthermore, unlike health centers, almost every community has a primary school, and teachers can be trained to deliver simple health inter- ventions, resulting in the potential for high returns for relatively low costs by using the existing infrastructure. This chapter identifies a core set of interventions for children ages 5–14 years that can be delivered effectively through schools. It then simulates the returns to health and education and benchmarks them against the costs of the intervention, drawing on published estimates. The invest- ment returns illustrate the scale of returns provided by school-based health interventions, highlighting the value of integrated health services and the parameters driving costs, benefits, and value for money (the ratio of benefits to costs). Countries seeking to introduce such a package need to undertake context-specific analyses of critical needs to ensure that the package responds to the specific local needs