Atmospheric-methane source and sink sensitivity analysis using Gaussian process emulation

We present a method to efficiently approximate the response of atmospheric-methane mole fraction and δ13C CH4 to changes in uncertain emission and loss parameters in a three-dimensional global chemical transport model. Our approach, based on Gaussian process emulation, allows relationships between inputs and outputs in the model to be efficiently explored. The presented emulator successfully reproduces the chemical transport model output with a root-meansquare error of 1.0 ppb and 0.05 ‰ for hemispheric-methane mole fraction and δ13C CH4, respectively, for 28 uncertain model inputs. The method is shown to outperform multiple linear regression because it captures non-linear relationships between inputs and outputs as well as the interaction between model input parameters. The emulator was used to determine how sensitive methane mole fraction and δ13C CH4 are to the major source and sink components of the atmospheric budget given current estimates of their uncertainty. We find that our current knowledge of the methane budget, as inferred through hemispheric mole fraction observations, is limited primarily by uncertainty in the global mean hydroxyl radical concentration and freshwater emissions. Our work quantitatively determines the added value of measurements of δ13C CH4, which are sensitive to some uncertain parameters to which mole fraction observations on their own are not. However, we demonstrate the critical importance of constraining isotopic initial conditions and isotopic source signatures, small uncertainties in which strongly influence long-term δ13C CH4 trends because of the long timescales over which transient perturbations propagate through the atmosphere. Our results also demonstrate that the magnitude and trend of methane mole fraction and δ13C CH4 can be strongly influenced by the combined uncertainty in more minor components of the atmospheric budget, which are often fixed and assumed to be well-known in inverse-modelling studies (e.g. emissions from termites, hydrates, and oceans). Overall, our work provides an overview of the sensitivity of atmospheric observations to budget uncertainties and outlines a method which could be employed to account for these uncertainties in future inverse-modelling systems

Effects of Sea Salt Aerosol Emissions for Marine Cloud Brightening on Atmospheric Chemistry : Implications for Radiative Forcing

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is proposed to offset global warming by emitting sea salt aerosols to the tropical marine boundary layer, which increases aerosol and cloud albedo. Sea salt aerosol is the main source of tropospheric reactive chlorine (Cly) and bromine (Bry). The effects of additional sea salt on atmospheric chemistry have not been explored. We simulate sea salt aerosol injections for MCB under two scenarios (212–569 Tg/a) in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model, only considering their impacts as a halogen source. Globally, tropospheric Cly and Bry increase (20–40%), leading to decreased ozone (−3 to −6%). Consequently, OH decreases (−3 to −5%), which increases the methane lifetime (3–6%). Our results suggest that the chemistry of the additional sea salt leads to minor total radiative forcing compared to that of the sea salt aerosol itself (~2%) but may have potential implications for surface ozone pollution in tropical coastal regions

Global modeling of tropospheric iodine aerosol

Natural aerosols play a central role in the Earth system. The conversion of dimethyl sulfide to sulfuric acid is the dominant source of oceanic secondary aerosol. Ocean emitted iodine can also produce aerosol. Using a GEOS-Chem model, we present a simulation of iodine aerosol. The simulation compares well with the limited observational data set. Iodine aerosol concentrations are highest in the tropical marine boundary layer (MBL) averaging 5.2 ng (I) m −3 with monthly maximum concentrations of 90 ng (I) m −3. These masses are small compared to sulfate (0.75% of MBL burden, up to 11% regionally) but are more significant compared to dimethyl sulfide sourced sulfate (3% of the MBL burden, up to 101% regionally). In the preindustrial, iodine aerosol makes up 0.88% of the MBL burden sulfate mass and regionally up to 21%. Iodine aerosol may be an important regional mechanism for ocean-atmosphere interaction

Modeling the observed tropospheric BrO background: Importance of multiphase chemistry and implications for ozone, OH, and mercury

Aircraft and satellite observations indicate the presence of ppt (ppt ≡ pmol/mol) levels of BrO in the free troposphere with important implications for the tropospheric budgets of ozone, OH, and mercury. We can reproduce these observations with the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model by including a broader consideration of multiphase halogen (Br–Cl) chemistry than has been done in the past. Important reactions for regenerating BrO from its non-radical reservoirs include HOBr+Br−/Cl− in both aerosols and clouds, and oxidation of Br− by ClNO3 and ozone. Most tropospheric BrO in the model is in the free troposphere, consistent with observations, and originates mainly from the photolysis and oxidation of ocean-emitted CHBr3. Stratospheric input is also important in the upper troposphere. Including production of gas phase inorganic bromine from debromination of acidified sea salt aerosol increases free tropospheric Bry by about 30 %. We find HOBr to be the dominant gas-phase reservoir of inorganic bromine. Halogen (Br-Cl) radical chemistry as implemented here in GEOS-Chem drives 14 % and 11 % decreases in the global burdens of tropospheric ozone and OH, respectively, a 16 % increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an atmospheric lifetime of 6 months for elemental mercury. The dominant mechanism for the Br-Cl driven tropospheric ozone decrease is oxidation of NOx by formation and hydrolysis of BrNO3 and ClNO3

Marine iodine emissions in a changing world

Iodine is a critical trace element involved in many diverse and important processes in the Earth system. The importance of iodine for human health has been known for over a century, with low iodine in the diet being linked to goitre, cretinism and neonatal death. Research over the last few decades has shown that iodine has significant impacts on tropospheric photochemistry, ultimately impacting climate by reducing the radiative forcing of ozone (O 3) and air quality by reducing extreme O 3 concentrations in polluted regions. Iodine is naturally present in the ocean, predominantly as aqueous iodide and iodate. The rapid reaction of sea-surface iodide with O 3 is believed to be the largest single source of gaseous iodine to the atmosphere. Due to increased anthropogenic O 3, this release of iodine is believed to have increased dramatically over the twentieth century, by as much as a factor of 3. Uncertainties in the marine iodine distribution and global cycle are, however, major constraints in the effective prediction of how the emissions of iodine and its biogeochemical cycle may change in the future or have changed in the past. Here, we present a synthesis of recent results by our team and others which bring a fresh perspective to understanding the global iodine biogeochemical cycle. In particular, we suggest that future climate-induced oceanographic changes could result in a significant change in aqueous iodide concentrations in the surface ocean, with implications for atmospheric air quality and climate

Constraining remote oxidation capacity with ATom observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half of the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July-August 2016 and January-February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NOy concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias, with the exception of wintertime NOy. The severe model overestimate of NOy during this period may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on sea-salt aerosols. Large uncertainties in these processes require further study to improve simulated NOy partitioning and removal in the troposphere, but preliminary tests suggest that their overall impact could marginally reduce the model bias in tropospheric OH. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by a comprehensive simulation of both biotic and abiotic ocean sources of VOCs. Additional sources of VOC reactivity in this region are difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOCs, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in both model acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean sources of VOCs in the model increases cOHRmod by 3 % to 9 % and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde, particularly in winter, but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require 100 Tg yr-1 of a longlived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land

Anthropogenic Impacts on Tropospheric Reactive Chlorine Since the Preindustrial

Tropospheric reactive gaseous chlorine (Cly) impacts the atmosphere's oxidation capacity with implications for chemically reduced gases such as methane. Here we use Greenland ice-core records of chlorine, sodium, and acidity, and global model simulations to show how tropospheric Cly has been impacted by anthropogenic emissions since the 1940s. We show that anthropogenic contribution of nonsea-salt chlorine significantly influenced total chlorine and its trends after the 1940s. The modeled regional 170% Cly increase from preindustrial to the 1970s was driven by acid displacement from sea-salt-aerosol, direct emission of hydrochloric acid (HCl) from combustion, and chemical reactions driven by anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Since the 1970s, the modeled 6% Cly decrease was caused mainly by reduced anthropogenic HCl emissions from air pollution mitigation policies. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic emissions of acidic gases and their emission control strategies have substantial impacts on Cly with implications for tropospheric oxidants, methane, and mercury

BrO and inferred Bry profiles over the western Pacific : Relevance of inorganic bromine sources and a Bry minimum in the aged tropical tropopause layer

We report measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO) and use an observationally constrained chemical box model to infer total gas-phase inorganic bromine (Bry) over the tropical western Pacific Ocean (tWPO) during the CONTRAST field campaign (January-February 2014). The observed BrO and inferred Bry profiles peak in the marine boundary layer (MBL), suggesting the need for a bromine source from sea-salt aerosol (SSA), in addition to organic bromine (CBry). Both profiles are found to be C-shaped with local maxima in the upper free troposphere (FT). The median tropospheric BrO vertical column density (VCD) was measured as 1.6×1013 molec cm-2, compared to model predictions of 0.9×1013 molec cm-2 in GEOS-Chem (CBry but no SSA source), 0.4×1013 molec cm-2 in CAM-Chem (CBry and SSA), and 2.1×1013 molec cm-2 in GEOS-Chem (CBry and SSA). Neither global model fully captures the C-shape of the Bry profile. A local Bry maximum of 3.6 ppt (2.9-4.4 ppt; 95 % confidence interval, CI) is inferred between 9.5 and 13.5 km in air masses influenced by recent convective outflow. Unlike BrO, which increases from the convective tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the aged TTL, gas-phase Bry decreases from the convective TTL to the aged TTL. Analysis of gas-phase Bry against multiple tracers (CFC-11, H2O-O3 ratio, and potential temperature) reveals a Bry minimum of 2.7 ppt (2.3-3.1 ppt; 95 % CI) in the aged TTL, which agrees closely with a stratospheric injection of 2.6 ± 0.6 ppt of inorganic Bry (estimated from CFC-11 correlations), and is remarkably insensitive to assumptions about heterogeneous chemistry. Bry increases to 6.3 ppt (5.6-7.0 ppt; 95 % CI) in the stratospheric "middleworld" and 6.9 ppt (6.5-7.3 ppt; 95 % CI) in the stratospheric "overworld". The local Bry minimum in the aged TTL is qualitatively (but not quantitatively) captured by CAM-Chem, and suggests a more complex partitioning of gas-phase and aerosol Bry species than previously recognized. Our data provide corroborating evidence that inorganic bromine sources (e.g., SSA-derived gas-phase Bry) are needed to explain the gas-phase Bry budget in the upper free troposphere and TTL. They are also consistent with observations of significant bromide in Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere aerosols. The total Bry budget in the TTL is currently not closed, because of the lack of concurrent quantitative measurements of gas-phase Bry species (i.e., BrO, HOBr, HBr, etc.) and aerosol bromide. Such simultaneous measurements are needed to (1) quantify SSA-derived Bry in the upper FT, (2) test Bry partitioning, and possibly explain the gas-phase Bry minimum in the aged TTL, (3) constrain heterogeneous reaction rates of bromine, and (4) account for all of the sources of Bry to the lower stratosphere