Physical forcing and physical/biochemical variability of the Mediterranean Sea: a review of unresolved issues and directions for future research

This paper is the outcome of a workshop held in Rome in November 2011 on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the POEM (Physical Oceanography of the Eastern Mediterranean) program. In the workshop discussions, a number of unresolved issues were identified for the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Mediterranean Sea as a whole, i.e., comprising the Western and Eastern sub-basins. Over the successive two years, the related ideas were discussed among the group of scientists who participated in the workshop and who have contributed to the writing of this paper. Three major topics were identified, each of them being the object of a section divided into a number of different sub-sections, each addressing a specific physical, chemical or biological issue: 1. Assessment of basin-wide physical/biochemical properties, of their variability and interactions. 2. Relative importance of external forcing functions (wind stress, heat/moisture fluxes, forcing through straits) vs. internal variability. 3. Shelf/deep sea interactions and exchanges of physical/biogeochemical properties and how they affect the sub-basin circulation and property distribution. Furthermore, a number of unresolved scientific/methodological issues were also identified and are reported in each sub-section after a short discussion of the present knowledge. They represent the collegial consensus of the scientists contributing to the paper. Naturally, the unresolved issues presented here constitute the choice of the authors and therefore they may not be exhaustive and/or complete. The overall goal is to stimulate a broader interdisciplinary discussion among the scientists of the Mediterranean oceanographic community, leading to enhanced collaborative efforts and exciting future discoveries

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

HyMeX, un programme multi-disciplinaire de 10 ans sur le cycle de l'eau en Méditerranée

International audienceThe Mediterranean countries are experiencing important challenges related to the water cycle including water shortages and floods, extreme winds and ice/snow storms that impact critically the socioeconomic vitality in the area (causing damage to property; threatening lives; affecting the energy and transportation sectors, etc.). There are gaps in our understanding of the Mediterranean water cycle and its dynamics, which include the variability of the Mediterranean Sea water budget and its feedback on the variability of the continental precipitation through air/sea interactions, the impact of precipitation variability on aquifer recharge, river discharge, soil water content and vegetation characteristics specific of the Mediterranean basin and the mechanisms that control the location and intensity of heavy precipitating systems which often produce floods. The HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) programme is a 10-year concerted experimental effort at the international level aiming at advancing the scientific knowledge of the water cycle variability in all compartments (land, sea and atmosphere) and at various time and spatial scales. It also aims at improving the processes-based models needed for forecasting hydro-meteorological extremes and the models of the regional climate system for predicting regional climate variability and evolution. It finally aims at assessing the social and economic vulnerability to hydrometeorological natural hazards in the Mediterranean and the adaptation capacity of the territories and populations therein to provide support to policy makers to cope with water related problems under the influence of climate change, by linking scientific outcomes with related policy requirements

HyMeX, le cycle de l'eau méditerranéen à la loupe

International audienceD'initiative française, le projet international HyMeX a pour objectif d'améliorer la compréhension du cycle de l'eau en Méditerranée, de sa variabilité, de l'échelle de l'événement météorologique aux échelles saisonnières et interannuelles, et de ses caractéristiques sur une décennie, dans un contexte de changement global. Le projet est motivé par le rôle déterminant des processus de mésoéchelle, couplés entre l'atmosphère, la mer et la terre, sur la variabilité du système climatique et sur le déclenchement d'événements hydrométéorologiques extrêmes (précipitations et inondations, vents forts et convection océanique, canicules et sécheresses). Le projet vise enfin à évaluer les conséquences de ces événements extrêmes sur la vulnérabilité sociale et économique de cette région et sa capacité d'adaptation