Eliciting Risk Preferences using Choice Lists

We study the effect of embedding pairwise choices between lotteries within a choice list on measured risk attitude. Using an experiment with online workers, we find that subjects choose the risky lottery rather than a sure payment significantly more often when responding to a choice list. This behavior can be rationalized by the interaction between non-expected utility and the random incentive system, as suggested by Karni and Safra (1987)

The impact of partially missing communities~on the reliability of centrality measures

Network data is usually not error-free, and the absence of some nodes is a very common type of measurement error. Studies have shown that the reliability of centrality measures is severely affected by missing nodes. This paper investigates the reliability of centrality measures when missing nodes are likely to belong to the same community. We study the behavior of five commonly used centrality measures in uniform and scale-free networks in various error scenarios. We find that centrality measures are generally more reliable when missing nodes are likely to belong to the same community than in cases in which nodes are missing uniformly at random. In scale-free networks, the betweenness centrality becomes, however, less reliable when missing nodes are more likely to belong to the same community. Moreover, centrality measures in scale-free networks are more reliable in networks with stronger community structure. In contrast, we do not observe this effect for uniform networks. Our observations suggest that the impact of missing nodes on the reliability of centrality measures might not be as severe as the literature suggests

?2-Microglobulin Amyloid Fibril-Induced Membrane Disruption Is Enhanced by Endosomal Lipids and Acidic pH

Although the molecular mechanisms underlying the pathology of amyloidoses are not well understood, the interaction between amyloid proteins and cell membranes is thought to play a role in several amyloid diseases. Amyloid fibrils of ?2-microglobulin (?2m), associated with dialysis-related amyloidosis (DRA), have been shown to cause disruption of anionic lipid bilayers in vitro. However, the effect of lipid composition and the chemical environment in which ?2m-lipid interactions occur have not been investigated previously. Here we examine membrane damage resulting from the interaction of ?2m monomers and fibrils with lipid bilayers. Using dye release, tryptophan fluorescence quenching and fluorescence confocal microscopy assays we investigate the effect of anionic lipid composition and pH on the susceptibility of liposomes to fibril-induced membrane damage. We show that ?2m fibril-induced membrane disruption is modulated by anionic lipid composition and is enhanced by acidic pH. Most strikingly, the greatest degree of membrane disruption is observed for liposomes containing bis(monoacylglycero)phosphate (BMP) at acidic pH, conditions likely to reflect those encountered in the endocytic pathway. The results suggest that the interaction between ?2m fibrils and membranes of endosomal origin may play a role in the molecular mechanism of ?2m amyloid-associated osteoarticular tissue destruction in DRA

Radiocarbon constraints on the glacial ocean circulation and its impact on atmospheric CO2_2

While the ocean's large-scale overturning circulation is thought to have been significantly different under the climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the exact nature of the glacial circulation and its implications for global carbon cycling continue to be debated. Here we use a global array of ocean-atmosphere radiocarbon disequilibrium estimates to demonstrate a ~689±53 $^{14}$C-yr increase in the average residence time of carbon in the deep ocean at the LGM. A predominantly southern-sourced abyssal overturning limb that was more isolated from its shallower northern counterparts is interpreted to have extended from the Southern Ocean, producing a widespread radiocarbon age maximum at mid-depths and depriving the deep ocean of a fast escape route for accumulating respired carbon. While the exact magnitude of the resulting carbon cycle impacts remains to be confirmed, the radiocarbon data suggest an increase in the efficiency of the biological carbon pump that could have accounted for as much as half of the glacial-interglacial CO$_2$ change.This work was made possible by NERC grant NE/L006421/1, and was supported by NERC radiocarbon analysis allocation number 1245.1007, as well as the Royal Society and the Cambridge Isaac Newton Trust

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Multi-centre parallel arm randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a group-based cognitive behavioural approach to managing fatigue in people with multiple sclerosis

Abstract (provisional) Background Fatigue is one of the most commonly reported and debilitating symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS); approximately two-thirds of people with MS consider it to be one of their three most troubling symptoms. It may limit or prevent participation in everyday activities, work, leisure, and social pursuits, reduce psychological well-being and is one of the key precipitants of early retirement. Energy effectiveness approaches have been shown to be effective in reducing MS-fatigue, increasing self-efficacy and improving quality of life. Cognitive behavioural approaches have been found to be effective for managing fatigue in other conditions, such as chronic fatigue syndrome, and more recently, in MS. The aim of this pragmatic trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a recently developed group-based fatigue management intervention (that blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches) compared with current local practice. Methods This is a multi-centre parallel arm block-randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a six session group-based fatigue management intervention, delivered by health professionals, compared with current local practice. 180 consenting adults with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and significant fatigue levels, recruited via secondary/primary care or newsletters/websites, will be randomised to receive the fatigue management intervention or current local practice. An economic evaluation will be undertaken alongside the trial. Primary outcomes are fatigue severity, self-efficacy and disease-specific quality of life. Secondary outcomes include fatigue impact, general quality of life, mood, activity patterns, and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes in those receiving the fatigue management intervention will be measured 1 week prior to, and 1, 4, and 12 months after the intervention (and at equivalent times in those receiving current local practice). A qualitative component will examine what aspects of the fatigue management intervention participants found helpful/unhelpful and barriers to change. Discussion This trial is the fourth stage of a research programme that has followed the Medical Research Council guidance for developing and evaluating complex interventions. What makes the intervention unique is that it blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches. A potential strength of the intervention is that it could be integrated into existing service delivery models as it has been designed to be delivered by staff already working with people with MS. Service users will be involved throughout this research. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN7651747

The Distances of the Magellanic Clouds

The present status of our knowledge of the distances to the Magellanic Clouds is evaluated from a post-Hipparcos perspective. After a brief summary of the effects of structure, reddening, age and metallicity, the primary distance indicators for the Large Magellanic Cloud are reviewed: The SN 1987A ring, Cepheids, RR Lyraes, Mira variables, and Eclipsing Binaries. Distances derived via these methods are weighted and combined to produce final "best" estimates for the Magellanic Clouds distance moduli.Comment: Invited review article to appear in ``Post Hipparcos Cosmic Candles'', F. Caputo & A. Heck (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in pres

Male reproductive health and environmental xenoestrogens

EHP is a publication of the U.S. government. Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. Research articles from EHP may be used freely; however, articles from the News section of EHP may contain photographs or figures copyrighted by other commercial organizations and individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from both the EHP editors and the holder of the copyright. Use of any materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, "Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives") and a reference provided for the article from which the material was reproduced.Male reproductive health has deteriorated in many countries during the last few decades. In the 1990s, declining semen quality has been reported from Belgium, Denmark, France, and Great Britain. The incidence of testicular cancer has increased during the same time incidences of hypospadias and cryptorchidism also appear to be increasing. Similar reproductive problems occur in many wildlife species. There are marked geographic differences in the prevalence of male reproductive disorders. While the reasons for these differences are currently unknown, both clinical and laboratory research suggest that the adverse changes may be inter-related and have a common origin in fetal life or childhood. Exposure of the male fetus to supranormal levels of estrogens, such as diethlylstilbestrol, can result in the above-mentioned reproductive defects. The growing number of reports demonstrating that common environmental contaminants and natural factors possess estrogenic activity presents the working hypothesis that the adverse trends in male reproductive health may be, at least in part, associated with exposure to estrogenic or other hormonally active (e.g., antiandrogenic) environmental chemicals during fetal and childhood development. An extensive research program is needed to understand the extent of the problem, its underlying etiology, and the development of a strategy for prevention and intervention.Supported by EU Contract BMH4-CT96-0314

The lacuna of capital, the state and war? The lost global history and theory of Eastern agency

In this article I seek to constructively engage Alex Anievas’s seminal book that is deservedly the subject of this forum. For Anievas has become a key figure in the revival of Trotskyism in IR and his is one of the first book-length treatments of the New Trotskyist theory of the international. My critique is meant merely as a constructive effort to push his excellent scholarship further in terms of developing his non-Eurocentric approach. In the first section I argue that his book represents a giant leap forward for the New Trotskyist IR. However, in the following sections I argue that although undeniably a brave attempt nevertheless, in the last instance, Anievas falls a few steps short in realising a genuinely non-Eurocentric account of world politics. This is because while he certainly restores or brings in ‘the lost theory and history of IR’ that elevates class forces to a central role in shaping world politics, nevertheless he fails to bring in ‘the lost global theory and history of Eastern agency’ that constitutes, in my view, the key ingredient of a non-Eurocentric approach to world politics. I also argue that while his anti-reductionist ontological credentials are for the most part extremely impressive, nevertheless, I argue that these are compromised in his analysis of Hitler’s racism. Finally, in the conclusion I ask whether the theoretical architecture of the New Trotskyism in IR is capable of developing a non-Eurocentric approach before concluding in the affirmative with respect to its modern revisionist incarnation of which Anievas is in the vanguard