Cumulative impact assessments of multiple host species loss from plant diseases show disproportionate reductions in associated biodiversity

Funding Information: This work was funded by BBSRC grant Protecting Oak Ecosystems (PuRpOsE): BB/N022831/1 with additional funding from the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate 2016–2021 strategic research programme. The authors thank Nick Hodgetts for collating the lists of the bryophyte species associated with ash and oak, Ralph Harmer for conducting some of the site visits and the site owners for allowing us access to the sites. Katharine Preedy provided statistical advice. Steve Albon and Robin Pakeman kindly provided comments to improve earlier drafts.Peer reviewe

Cumulative impact assessments of multiple host species loss from plant diseases show disproportionate reductions in associated biodiversity

Non-native plant pests and pathogens are increasing exponentially, causing extirpation of foundation species. The impact of large-scale declines in a single host on associated biodiversity is widely documented. However, the impact of multiple host loss on biodiversity and whether these impacts are multiplicative has not been assessed. Ecological theory suggests that systems with greater functional redundancy (alternative hosts) will be more resilient to the loss of sympatric hosts. We test this theory and show its importance in relation to pest/pathogen impact assessments. We assessed the potential impact on biodiversity of the loss of two widely occurring sympatric European tree species, Fraxinus excelsior and Quercus petraea/robur, both of which are currently threatened by a range of pests and pathogens. At the UK scale, the total number of associated species at risk of extirpation from plant diseases affecting these two sympatric hosts is greater than the sum of the associated species at risk from declines in either host alone. F. excelsior hosts 45 obligate species (species only found on that host) and Q. petraea/robur hosts 326. However, a decline in both these trees would impact 512 associated species, across multiple taxon groups, a 38% increase. Assessments at a local scale, 24 mixed F. excelsior–Q. petraea/robur woodlands revealed that these impacts may be even greater due to a lack of functional redundancy. Only 21% of sites were able to provide functional redundancy for F. excelsior and Q. petraea/robur associated species which can use other tree species. In most woodlands, the tree species required to provide functional redundancy were not present, although the site conditions were often suitable for them to grow. Synthesis. Understanding of functional redundancy should be applied to assessments of pests/pathogens impact on biodiversity. In risk assessments, higher impact scores should be given to pests/pathogens affecting hosts occurring with other host plant species already impacted by pests/pathogens. Current pest/pathogen risk assessment approaches that ignore the cumulative, cascading effects shown in this study may allow an insidious, mostly overlooked, driver of biodiversity loss to continue.Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Grant/Award Number: BB/N022831/1; Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Cross-scale analysis of social-ecological systems:Policy options appraisal for delivering NetZero and other environmental objectives in Scotland

Public policy confronts complex, contested, wicked problems such as climate and biodiversity crises with challenges of how issues are framed, analysed, codified, and interpreted. Social-ecological systems provide an analytical framework that couples the biosphere and technosphere, recognising biophysical limits and emphasising the importance of critical reflection within policy decision-making. Conducting policy-options appraisals is increasingly seen as a transdisciplinary research-policy endeavour with researchers engaging policy actors in an extended peer community (post-normal science). This paper presents a case study of analysis undertaken with researchers, policy analysts, policy makers and other stakeholders to support decisions on how to implement future agriculture support in Scotland, so that the policy programme better delivers across social, economic and environmental objectives. The key change being considered in the future agricultural support programme is Enhanced Conditionality (EC) where the level of financial support provided to farm-businesses will depend on their undertaking agri-environmental measures that deliver against the key priorities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reversing biodiversity losses. The paper outlines the policy context within which the EC options appraisal takes place – highlighting how EC is a crucial component in making the wider suite of policy measures work. The transdisciplinary approach, Quantitative Story Telling (QST) is presented, emerging from decision support, participatory research, and post-normal science for policy domains. The stages of QST highlight the importance of analysis that underpins any quantification (decision on how issues are framed and what it included in the analysis) and the expectation that research outputs with be deliberated on with, and interpreted from, stakeholder perspectives. The project specific analyses are outlined, combining top-down options appraisal of how macro-policy decisions could constrain EC and bottom-up analysis of potential uptake and effectiveness of EC measures, undertaken in inter-disciplinary workshops with domain experts from biodiversity, soils and waters. The paper highlights challenges for implementation and evaluation at meso-scale with interactions between farm-businesses and catchment, landscape and regional objectives. The conclusions of the analysis, in policy terms, are that EC presents an opportunity to significantly realign how agricultural land management is conducted in Scotland, so that it is more effective in delivering climate change and biodiversity objectives, but there are formidable challenges in resolving the policy “sudoku”. Meso-scale issues are likely to mean the need to integrate alternative modelling paradigms such as spatial, empirical agent-based modelling (ABM) into policy option appraisals. By taking multi-scale, social-ecological systems perspectives on EC it has been possible to identify key policy decisions at a range of scales on which the success of EC will depend, to have a realistic understanding of how effective the EC measures might be in heterogenous Scottish environments and what are the likely barriers to uptake. The analysis also highlighted where outcomes of the policy change are likely to be challenging to monitor-evaluate; and where there are dependencies between farm-businesses that mean EC measures need to be supplemented with mechanisms that (1) promote cooperation between land managers and (2) identify and respond to agreed local priorities. The value of the participatory QST process was in making sure the analyses being undertaken were salient and the outputs seen as credible – but the challenges of interpreting necessarily complex outputs remain. The greatest value of QST may be that it provides a structured way to navigate complexity with policy makers rather than seeking to control or eliminate it.</p

Cross-scale analysis of social-ecological systems:Policy options appraisal for delivering NetZero and other environmental objectives in Scotland

Public policy confronts complex, contested, wicked problems such as climate and biodiversity crises with challenges of how issues are framed, analysed, codified, and interpreted. Social-ecological systems provide an analytical framework that couples the biosphere and technosphere, recognising biophysical limits and emphasising the importance of critical reflection within policy decision-making. Conducting policy-options appraisals is increasingly seen as a transdisciplinary research-policy endeavour with researchers engaging policy actors in an extended peer community (post-normal science). This paper presents a case study of analysis undertaken with researchers, policy analysts, policy makers and other stakeholders to support decisions on how to implement future agriculture support in Scotland, so that the policy programme better delivers across social, economic and environmental objectives. The key change being considered in the future agricultural support programme is Enhanced Conditionality (EC) where the level of financial support provided to farm-businesses will depend on their undertaking agri-environmental measures that deliver against the key priorities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reversing biodiversity losses. The paper outlines the policy context within which the EC options appraisal takes place – highlighting how EC is a crucial component in making the wider suite of policy measures work. The transdisciplinary approach, Quantitative Story Telling (QST) is presented, emerging from decision support, participatory research, and post-normal science for policy domains. The stages of QST highlight the importance of analysis that underpins any quantification (decision on how issues are framed and what it included in the analysis) and the expectation that research outputs with be deliberated on with, and interpreted from, stakeholder perspectives. The project specific analyses are outlined, combining top-down options appraisal of how macro-policy decisions could constrain EC and bottom-up analysis of potential uptake and effectiveness of EC measures, undertaken in inter-disciplinary workshops with domain experts from biodiversity, soils and waters. The paper highlights challenges for implementation and evaluation at meso-scale with interactions between farm-businesses and catchment, landscape and regional objectives. The conclusions of the analysis, in policy terms, are that EC presents an opportunity to significantly realign how agricultural land management is conducted in Scotland, so that it is more effective in delivering climate change and biodiversity objectives, but there are formidable challenges in resolving the policy “sudoku”. Meso-scale issues are likely to mean the need to integrate alternative modelling paradigms such as spatial, empirical agent-based modelling (ABM) into policy option appraisals. By taking multi-scale, social-ecological systems perspectives on EC it has been possible to identify key policy decisions at a range of scales on which the success of EC will depend, to have a realistic understanding of how effective the EC measures might be in heterogenous Scottish environments and what are the likely barriers to uptake. The analysis also highlighted where outcomes of the policy change are likely to be challenging to monitor-evaluate; and where there are dependencies between farm-businesses that mean EC measures need to be supplemented with mechanisms that (1) promote cooperation between land managers and (2) identify and respond to agreed local priorities. The value of the participatory QST process was in making sure the analyses being undertaken were salient and the outputs seen as credible – but the challenges of interpreting necessarily complex outputs remain. The greatest value of QST may be that it provides a structured way to navigate complexity with policy makers rather than seeking to control or eliminate it.</p

Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe

Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising similar to 6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe. The global biodiversity decline might conceal complex local and group-specific trends. Here the authors report a quantitative synthesis of longterm biodiversity trends across Europe, showing how, despite overall increase in biodiversity metric and stability in abundance, trends differ between regions, ecosystem types, and taxa.peerReviewe

Pollinator-flower interactions in gardens during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown of 2020

During the main COVID-19 global pandemic lockdown period of 2020 an impromptu set of pollination ecologists came together via social media and personal contacts to carry out standardised surveys of the flower visits and plants in gardens. The surveys involved 67 rural, suburban and urban gardens, of various sizes, ranging from 61.18° North in Norway to 37.96° South in Australia, resulting in a data set of 25,174 rows, with each row being a unique interaction record for that date/site/plant species, and comprising almost 47,000 visits to flowers, as well as records of flowers that were not visited by pollinators, for over 1,000 species and varieties belonging to more than 460genera and 96plant families. The more than 650 species of flower visitors belong to 12 orders of invertebrates and four of vertebrates. In this first publication from the project, we present a brief description of the data and make it freely available for any researchers to use in the future, the only restriction being that they cite this paper in the first instance. The data generated from these global surveys will provide scientific evidence to help us understand the role that private gardens (in urban, rural and suburban areas) can play in conserving insect pollinators and identify management actions to enhance their potential