Connectivity-Mediated Ecohydrological Feedbacks and Regime Shifts in Drylands

Identified as essential mechanisms promoting alternative stable states, positive feedbacks have been the focus of most former studies on the potential for catastrophic shifts in drylands. Conversely, little is known about how negative feedbacks could counterbalance the effects of positive feedbacks. A decrease in vegetation cover increases the connectivity of bare-soil areas and entails a global loss of runoff-driven resources from the ecosystem but also a local increase in runoff transferred from bare-soil areas to vegetation patches. In turn, these global resource losses and local resource gains decrease and increase vegetation cover, respectively, resulting in a global positive and a local negative feedback loop. We propose that the interplay of these two interconnected ecohydrological feedbacks of opposite sign determines the vulnerability of dryland ecosystems to catastrophic shifts. To test this hypothesis, we developed a spatially explicit model and assessed the effects of varying combinations of feedback strengths on the dynamics, resilience, recovery potential, and spatial structure of the system. Increasing strengths of the local negative feedback relative to the global positive feedback decreased the risk of catastrophic shifts, facilitated recovery from a degraded state, and promoted the formation of banded vegetation patterns. Both feedbacks were most relevant at low vegetation cover due to the nonlinear increase in hydrological connectivity with decreasing vegetation. Our modelling results suggest that catastrophic shifts to degraded states are less likely in drylands with strong source–sink dynamics and/or strong response of vegetation growth to resource redistribution and that feedback manipulation can be useful to enhance dryland restoration.This work was supported by the research Projects DRYEX (CGL2014-59074-R) and DRYEX2 (CGL2017-89804-R), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, and the EC-funded Project CASCADE (GA283068). FR and SB acknowledge the financial support from the “Programa Estatal de Promoción del Talento y su Empleabilidad en I + D+i, Subprograma Estatal de Movilidad, del Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016” (PRX14/00691 and PRX16/00583), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports (MECD). FR also acknowledges the financial support from the Valencia Regional Government, Generalitat Valenciana (BEST/2014/285). AGM was supported by the EC-funded Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action ECOHYDRY (GA660859)

Jellyfish diversity, trends and patterns in Southwestern Mediterranean Sea: a citizen science and field monitoring alliance

Jellyfish (Cnidaria and Ctenophora) are an essential component of marine ecosystems and represent a potential effect, positive or negative, for several economic activities. Jellyfish blooms and non-indigenous species (NIS) introduction can shift ecological community structure and energy transfer. Despite their importance in ecosystem function and services, knowledge of jellyfish fauna diversity and phenology are largely lacking for the southern Mediterranean Sea. Here, we present an overview of the current state of jellyfish biodiversity in Tunisia. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, historical records and unpublished data, 66 jellyfish species, including 11 non-indigenous species, have been recorded in Tunisia between 1994 and 2020. Additionally, based on field surveys and a citizen science sighting program between 2004 and 2020, we present data on the spatial distribution of 13 conspicuous jellyfish taxa and the phenology of the eight most frequently detected species (Aurelia solida, Cotylorhiza tuberculata, Pelagia noctiluca, Phyllorhiza punctata, Rhizostoma pulmo, Rhopilema nomadica, Olindias muelleri and Velella velella) in Tunisian two ecoregions, the Western Mediterranean and the Tunisian Plateau. The 17 year survey showed a shift in R. pulmo, A. solida and P. noctiluca phenology. Additionally, citizen science revealed an increase in the spatial range of P. punctata (NIS) and the distinct phenologies of populations in the two ecoregions

Post-fire Regeneration Traits of Understorey Shrub Species Modulate Successional Responses to High Severity Fire in Mediterranean Pine Forests

Recurrent fires can impede the spontaneous recruitment capacity of pine forests. Empirical studies have suggested that this can lead to a prolonged replacement of pine forest by shrubland, especially if shrub species are pyrophytic. Model-based studies, however, have suggested that post-fire succession of pine forest under current climatic conditions will eventually tend towards the dominance of oaks under high fire severity and recurrence. These previous modelling studies did not address the role of the various post-fire regeneration traits of the understory shrub species. Considering the dichotomy of obligate seeder vs. resprouter species, either obligate or facultative resprouter, we hypothesized that when the shrubs present are post-fire seeders, the oaks steadily occupy the forest, whereas resprouter shrub species might compete with oaks and delay or arrest post-fire succession. To test this hypothesis, we developed a dynamic, cellular automaton model for simulating post-fire successional transitions in pine forests, including shrubs, pines and oaks, and stochastic fires of regular frequency. Our results showed a strong tendency towards oak dominance as final model state and a very reduced role of fire recurrence in this final state, with low yearly acorn input delaying oak dominance. Most relevantly, and in line with our hypothesis, the trend towards oak dominance depended markedly on the two types of shrub species, being delayed by resprouter species, which extended the shrub-dominated succession stage for several centuries. Our simulation results supported the view that the type of understorey species should be a key consideration in post-fire restoration strategies aiming to enhance fire resilience.This research has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement no. 283068 (CASCADE project). Thanks are due to FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020), through national funds and the post-doctoral research contract of Jacob Keizer (FCT-IF/01465/2015), and to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for financial support (CGL2017-89804-R) of the work of Susana Bautista. The work of Paula Maia was partially supported by the project SuSPiRe (PTDC/ASP-SIL/30983/2017) funded by FCT, through COMPETE2020—Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização (POCI)

Geographical variation of multiplex ecological networks in marine intertidal communities

Understanding the drivers of geographical variation in species distributions, and the resulting community structure, constitutes one of the grandest challenges in ecology. Geographical patterns of species richness and composition have been relatively well studied. Less is known about how the entire set of trophic and non‐trophic ecological interactions, and the complex networks that they create by gluing species together in complex communities, change across geographical extents. Here, we compiled data of species composition and three types of ecological interactions occurring between species in rocky intertidal communities across a large spatial extent (~970 km of shoreline) of central Chile, and analyzed the geographical variability in these multiplex networks (i.e., comprising several interaction types) of ecological interactions. We calculated nine network summary statistics common across interaction types, and additional network attributes specific to each of the different types of interactions. We then investigated potential environmental drivers of this multivariate network organization. These included variation in sea surface temperature and coastal upwelling, the main drivers of productivity in nearshore waters. Our results suggest that structural properties of multiplex ecological networks are affected by local species richness and modulated by factors influencing productivity and environmental predictability. Our results show that non‐trophic negative interactions are more sensitive to spatially structured temporal environmental variation than feeding relationships, with non‐trophic positive interactions being the least labile to it. We also show that environmental effects are partly mediated through changes in species richness and partly through direct influences on species interactions, probably associated to changes in environmental predictability and to bottom‐up nutrient availability. Our findings highlight the need for a comprehensive picture of ecological interactions and their geographical variability if we are to predict potential effects of environmental changes on ecological communities

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data

Methods For Detecting Early Warnings Of Critical Transitions In Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

The invasive tropical scyphozoan Rhopilema nomadica Galil, 1990 reaches the Tunisian coast of the Mediterranean Sea

The alien Erythraean jellyfish Rhopilema nomadica was first recorded in Tunisia waters (Gulf of Gabes) in 2008. Subsequently it was sighted in the Bizerte Channel and Gulf of Tunis where it has been regularly observed since 2010 during summer and autumn months.peer-reviewe

Unfolding jellyfish bloom dynamics along the Mediterranean basin by transnational citizen science initiatives

Science is addressing global societal challenges, and due to limitations in research financing, scientists are turning to the public at large to jointly tackle specific environmental issues. Citizens are therefore increasingly involved in monitoring programs, appointed as citizen scientists with potential to delivering key data at near to no cost to address environmental challenges, therein fostering scientific knowledge and advising policy- and decision-makers. One of the first and most successful examples of marine citizen science in the Mediterranean is represented by the integrative and collaborative implementation of several jellyfish-spotting campaigns in Italy, Spain, Malta, and Tunisia starting in 2009. Altogether, in terms of time coverage, geographic extent, and number of citizen records, these represent the most effective marine citizen science campaigns thus far implemented in the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we analyzed a collective database merging records over the above four countries, featuring more than 100,000 records containing almost 25,000 observations of jellyfish specimens collected over a period of 3 to 7 years (from 2009 to 2015) by citizen scientists participating in any of the national citizen science programs included in this analysis. Such a wide citizen science exercise demonstrates a valuable and cost-effective tool to understanding ecological drivers of jellyfish proliferation over the Western and Central Mediterranean basins, as well as a powerful contribution to developing tailored adaptation and management strategies; mitigating jellyfish impacts on human activities in coastal zones; and supporting implementation of marine spatial planning, Blue Growth, and conservation strategies.peer-reviewe

Are anti-jellyfish nets a useful mitigation tool for coastal tourism? Hindsight from the MED-JELLYRISK experience

The mitigation of coastal hazards, notably jellyfish blooms, has assumed great significance in recent years in view of the potential detrimental impact of such hazards on the welfare of coastal communities. This is especially true in a basin such as the Mediterranean with a very high degree of coastal settlement and dependence on coastal economic activities. Within the MED-JELLYRISK project and over the course of two summers (2014 and 2015), a total of 15 anti-jellyfish nets within several Mediterranean tourist hotposts were installed in Italy (islands of Lipari, Salina, Ustica, Lampedusa and Favignana), Spain (two beaches on the island of Ibiza), Tunisia (beaches at Monastir and Hammamet) and Malta. Manufactured in 25m-long modules, the nets were specifically designed to exclude individuals of jellyfish species from the enclosed bathing areas, and were installed on shallow sandy and rocky bottoms from the coastal fringe down to a water depth of 2.5m. The performance of the same nets was monitored through scientific surveys inside and outside the net-enclosed areas. In parallel, the colonization of fouling organisms on the submerged sections of the nets was investigated, and the public perception of the installed nets was assessed through ad hoc questionnaires deployed on the beaches. Useful hindsight for coastal managers, concerning best sites and conditions for deployment, net design and materials, has been gained from this experimental anti-jellyfish net deployment effort within the MED-JELLYRISK project.peer-reviewe

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development