The Role of Residual Demand in Electricity Price Analysis and Forecasting: Case of Czech Electricity Market

Most of scientific papers dealing with power price predictions base their work on various statistical time series models. In this paper we propose a new, purely fundamental, approach to the issues of electricity price analysis and forecasting. While precise replication of real power market processes is very complicated, we show that even relatively simple fundamental model is able to explain large part of price movements on the electricity markets. Analysis presented is based predominantly on the Merit order theory and introduces the concept of residual demand as a crucial variable for explaining hourly electricity price movements. While the analysis shown in this paper is applied to the Czech electricity day-ahead market, it can be well replicated also for the other relevant European power market areas. Tests of fundamental approaches towards power price forecasting have shown very promising results and we believe they deserve more attention from the electricity market researchers. Keywords: Electricity market, Electricity prices forecasting, Merit order theory JEL Classifications: Q41, Q4

Reactivity of pulmonary circulation and right ventricle function to inhaled nitric oxide in systemic sclerosis patients

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is complicated by pulmonary hypertension and right ventricle (RV) failure in approximately 10% of the patients. Factors influencing the reactivity of pulmonary circulation to vasodilators are not established, while the examination of vasoreactivity is important in determining the treatment, because systemic administration of oral vasodilators can induce severe adverse events in nonresponders. The mechanism of RV failure in SSc is unclear and may result either from increased RV afterload or intrinsic myocardial disease. The aim of the study was to assess the reactivity of pulmonary circulation to inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) and to evaluate its influence on RV function in SSc patients with elevated right ventricle systolic pressure (RVSP). In 60 SSc patients aged 24–73 (58 females, two males; 33 patients with limited SSc and 27 with diffuse SSc), echocardiographic examination with tissue Doppler echocardiography (TDE) was performed. RV function was measured by systolic (S) and early diastolic (E) velocity of tricuspid annulus by TDE. In patients with RVSP >45 mmHg, the reactivity of pulmonary circulation was assessed by iNO test. High-resolution computerized tomography (HRCT) was performed to assess the extent of pulmonary fibrosis. Of 14 SSc subjects with elevated RVSP (13 females, one male; RVSP 47–62 mmHg), positive reaction to iNO was observed in five (RVSP decreased from 51.6 ± 3.7 to 32.24 ± 2.3 mmHg); nine patients were not reactive (RVSP 53.5 ± 5.7 mmHg before iNO vs. 49.6 ± 6.7 mmHg). RV systolic function was decreased in patients with elevated RVSP as compared to the patients with normal pulmonary pressure (S velocity 13.2 ± 1.3 vs. 14.4 ± 1.6 cm/s, respectively, p < 0.05). Significant increase of RV systolic function during iNO test was found in reactive patients only (S velocity before iNO 12.8 ± 1.2 cm/s, during iNO 14.5 ± 1.5 cm/s, p < 0.01). RVSP decrease strongly correlated with S velocity increase (r = 0.95, p < 0.0001). Response to iNO was found only in limited form of SSc; diffuse SSc patients showed no response. Pulmonary fibrosis on HRCT was more frequent in subjects nonreactive to iNO (67% of patients) than in the reactive group (40% of patients). The reactivity of pulmonary circulation to iNO in SSc patients with elevated RVSP was found predominantly in limited form of the disease. Pulmonary fibrosis typical for diffuse SSc was more frequent in nonreactive subjects. Elevated pulmonary pressure plays an important role in RV systolic dysfunction. Pulmonary pressure decrease during iNO test leads to the improvement of RV systolic function. Therapy for right-heart failure in reactive SSc patients should be directed, if possible, at the decrease in pulmonary resistance

In-beam spectroscopic study of 244Cf

The ground-state rotational band of the neutron-deficient californium (Z = 98) isotope 244Cf was identified for the first time and measured up to a tentative spin and parity of I = 20+. The observation of the rotational band indicates that the nucleus is deformed. The kinematic and dynamic moments of inertia were deduced from the measured gamma-ray transition energies. The behavior of the dynamic moment of inertia revealed an up-bend due to a possible alignment of coupled nucleons in high-j orbitals starting at a rotational frequency of about hw = 0.20 MeV. The results were compared with the systematic behavior of the even-even N = 146 isotones as well as with available theoretical calculations that have been performed for nuclei in the region

The impact of DMARD and anti-TNF therapy on functional characterization of short-term T-cell activation in patients with rheumatoid arthritis - A follow-up study

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by a systemic dysfunction of T-cells. In this study we tested the impact of DMARD and anti-TNF agents on short-term activation characteristics of T-cells. We enrolled 12 patients with newly diagnosed RA (naïve RA) who were treated with methothrexate (MTX) and glucocorticsteroid (GCS) and 22 patients with established RA non responding to conventional DMARD therapy who were treated with different anti-TNF agents. Nine healthy volunteers served as controls. Blood samples were taken at baseline, then at 4th and 8th week of therapy. The characteristics of several intracellular activation processes during short-term activation of T-cells including cytoplasmic Ca2+ level, mitochondrial Ca2+ level, reactive oxygen species (ROS) and nitric oxide (NO) generation were determined by a novel flow-cytometry technique. At baseline, the tested processes were comparable to controls in naïve RA. During GCS therapy, cytoplasmic Ca2+ level and ROS generation decreased. After the addition of MTX to GCS cytoplasmic Ca2+ level became comparable to controls, while ROS generation decreased further. In DMARD non responders, cytoplasmic Ca2+ level was higher than controls at baseline. The cytoplasmic Ca2+ level became comparable to controls and ROS generation decreased during each of the three anti-TNF-α agent therapies. Mitochondrial Ca2+ level and NO generation were unaltered in all of the patient groups. These results indicate that intracellular machinery is affected in T-cells of RA patients. This may alter the behavior of T-cells during activation. Different therapeutic approaches may modulate the abnormal T-cell functions. © 2014 Szalay et al

A comparison of an interferon-gamma release assay and tuberculin skin test in refractory inflammatory disease patients screened for latent tuberculosis prior to the initiation of a first tumor necrosis factor α inhibitor

Treatment with TNFα inhibitors increases risk of reactivating a latent tuberculosis\infection (LTBI). Therefore screening, prior to therapy with TNFα inhibitors, has been recommended, even in low-endemic areas such as well-developed Western Europe countries. We evaluated interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), as opposed to tuberculin skin test (TST), for detection of LTBI in refractory inflammatory disease patients prior to the initiation of a first TNFα inhibitor. In addition, we evaluated the impact of impaired cellular immunity on IGRA. Patients starting on TNFα inhibition were screened for LTBI by TST and IGRA (Quantiferon-TB Gold). Data on tuberculosis exposure and Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination were obtained. Cellular immunity was assessed by CD4+ T lymphocyte cell count. Nine out of 56 patients (16.1%) tested positive for LTBI. A concordant positive result was present in three patients with a medical history of tuberculosis exposure. Six patients with discordant test results had either: (1) a negative TST and positive IGRA in combination with a medical history of tuberculosis exposure (n = 1) or (2) a positive TST and negative IGRA in combination with BCG vaccination (n = 3) or a medical history of tuberculosis exposure (n = 2). CD4+ T lymphocyte cell counts were within normal limits, and no indeterminate results of IGRA were present. IGRA appears reliable for confirming TST and excluding a false positive TST (due to prior BCG vaccination) in this Dutch serie of patients. In addition, IGRA may detect one additional case of LTBI out of 56 patients that would otherwise be missed using solely TST. Immune suppression appears not to result significantly in lower CD4+ T lymphocyte cell counts and indeterminate results of IGRA, despite systemic corticosteroid treatment in half of the patients. Confirmation in larger studies, including assessment of cost-effectiveness, is required

Efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatment of psoriatic arthritis: a systematic literature research informing the 2023 update of the EULAR recommendations for the management of psoriatic arthritis.

Objectives To obtain an overview of recent evidence on efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments in psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Methods This systematic literature research (SLR) investigated the efficacy and safety of conventional synthetic (cs), biological (b) and targeted synthetic (ts) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in patients with PsA. A systematic database search using Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL was conducted to identify relevant articles published since the previous update in 2019 until 28 December 2022. Efficacy was assessed in trials while for safety observational data were also considered. Adverse events of special interest were infections (including herpes zoster, influenza and tuberculosis), malignancies, major adverse cardiovascular events, venous thromboembolisms, liver disease, laboratory changes and psychiatric adverse events. No meta-analyses were performed. Results For efficacy, of 3946 articles screened, 38 articles (30 trials) were analysed. The compounds investigated included csDMARDs (leflunomide, methotrexate), bDMARDs inhibiting IL17 (bimekizumab, brodalumab, ixekizumab, izokibep, secukinumab,), IL-23 (guselkumab, risankizumab, tildrakizumab), IL-12/23 (ustekinumab) as well as TNF (adalimumab, certolizumab-pegol, etanercept, infliximab, golimumab) and Janus Kinase inhibitors (JAKi) (brepocitinib, deucravacitinib, tofacitinib, upadacitinib). The compounds investigated were efficacious in improving signs and symptoms of PsA, improving physical functioning and quality of life. For safety, 2055 abstracts were screened, and 24 articles analysed: 15 observational studies and 9 long-term follow-ups of trials, assessing glucocorticoids, TNFi, IL-17i, JAKi, IL-12/23i and PDE4i (apremilast). Safety indicators were generally coherent with the previous SLR in 2019. Conclusion The results of this SLR informed the task force responsible for the 2023 update of the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology recommendations for pharmacological management of PsA

Genetics of rheumatoid arthritis contributes to biology and drug discovery

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological datasets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA)1. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ~10 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 1012–4. We devised an in-silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation5, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTL)6, and pathway analyses7–9 – as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency (PID), hematological cancer somatic mutations and knock-out mouse phenotypes – to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery

Rheumatoid arthritis - treatment: 180. Utility of Body Weight Classified Low-Dose Leflunomide in Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis

Background: In Japan, more than 20 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients died of interstitial pneumonia (IP) caused by leflunomide (LEF) were reported, but many of them were considered as the victims of opportunistic infection currently. In this paper, efficacy and safety of low-dose LEF classified by body weight (BW) were studied. Methods: Fifty-nine RA patients were started to administrate LEF from July 2007 to July 2009. Among them, 25 patients were excluded because of the combination with tacrolimus, and medication modification within 3 months before LEF. Remaining 34 RA patients administered 20 to 50 mg/week of LEF were followed up for 1 year and enrolled in this study. Dose of LEF was classified by BW (50 mg/week for over 50 kg, 40 mg/week for 40 to 50 kg and 20 to 30 mg/week for under 40 kg). The average age and RA duration of enrolled patients were 55.5 years old and 10.2 years. Prednisolone (PSL), methotrexate (MTX) and etanercept were used in 23, 28 and 2 patients, respectively. In case of insufficient response or adverse effect, dosage change or discontinuance of LEF were considered. Failure was defined as dosages up of PSL and MTX, or dosages down or discontinuance of LEF. Last observation carried forward method was used for the evaluation of failed patients at 1 year. Results: At 1 year after LEF start, good/ moderate/ no response assessed by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria using Disease Activity Score, including a 28-joint count (DAS28)-C reactive protein (CRP) were showed in 14/ 10/ 10 patients, respectively. The dosage changes of LEF at 1 year were dosage up: 10, same dosage: 5, dosage down: 8 and discontinuance: 11 patients. The survival rate of patients in this study was 23.5% (24 patients failed) but actual LEF continuous rate was 67.6% (11 patients discontinued) at 1 year. The major reason of failure was liver dysfunction, and pneumocystis pneumonia was occurred in 1 patient resulted in full recovery. One patient died of sepsis caused by decubitus ulcer infection. DAS28-CRP score was decreased from 3.9 to 2.7 significantly. Although CRP was decreased from 1.50 to 0.93 mg/dl, it wasn't significant. Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-3 was decreased from 220.0 to 174.2 ng/ml significantly. Glutamate pyruvate transaminase (GPT) was increased from 19 to 35 U/l and number of leukocyte was decreased from 7832 to 6271 significantly. DAS28-CRP, CRP, and MMP-3 were improved significantly with MTX, although they weren't without MTX. Increase of GPT and leukopenia were seen significantly with MTX, although they weren't without MTX. Conclusions: It was reported that the risks of IP caused by LEF in Japanese RA patients were past IP history, loading dose administration and low BW. Addition of low-dose LEF is a potent safe alternative for the patients showing unsatisfactory response to current medicines, but need to pay attention for liver function and infection caused by leukopenia, especially with MTX. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes