Observation of a large lee wave in the Drake Passage

Lee waves are thought to play a prominent role in Southern Ocean dynamics, facilitating a transfer of energy from the jets of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to microscale, turbulent motions important in water mass transformations. Two EM-APEX profiling floats deployed in the Drake Passage during the Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment (DIMES) independently measured a 120 ± 20-m vertical amplitude lee wave over the Shackleton Fracture Zone. A model for steady EM-APEX motion is developed to calculate absolute vertical water velocity, augmenting the horizontal velocity measurements made by the floats. The wave exhibits fluctuations in all three velocity components of over 15 cm s−1 and an intrinsic frequency close to the local buoyancy frequency. The wave is observed to transport energy and horizontal momentum vertically at respective peak rates of 1.3 ± 0.2 W m−2 and 8 ± 1 N m−2. The rate of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation is estimated using both Thorpe scales and a method that isolates high-frequency vertical kinetic energy and is found to be enhanced within the wave to values of order 10−7 W kg−1. The observed vertical flux of energy is significantly larger than expected from idealized numerical simulations and also larger than observed depth-integrated dissipation rates. These results provide the first unambiguous observation of a lee wave in the Southern Ocean with simultaneous measurements of its energetics and dynamics

The prevalence of sarcopenia in fallers and those at risk of falls in a secondary care falls unit as measured by bioimpedance analysis

Objectives: Sarcopenia is characterised by loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength with adverse outcomes: physical disability, poor quality of life and death. Low muscle mass and strength are risk factors for falls, although there are few data available on the prevalence of sarcopenia in fallers. This study aimed to determine prevalence of sarcopenia in older people referred to a falls clinic. / Methods: Consecutive patients referred to a secondary care falls unit were recruited. Sarcopenia was diagnosed using the European Working Group on Sarcopenia definition (low muscle mass and function) and cut-off points. Bio-impedance measured appendicular skeletal muscle mass. Gait speed and grip strength were functional measures. / Results: Fifty-eight patients were recruited. Mean (SD) grip strength for women and men respectively were 17.9 (4.9) and 29.9(8.7) kg, mean (SD) gait speeds were 0.61(0.18) and 0.72 (0.4) m/s, mean (SD) appendicular skeletal muscle index in women and men were 6.98(1.0) and 7.85 (1.0) kg/m2 (p=0.018). Prevalence of sarcopenia was 9.8% (95% CI=1.6%-18%). / Conclusions: Sarcopenia, as measured by bio-impedance is not uncommon in older people accessing a secondary care falls clinic. Bio-impedance was simple to perform, although further validation against gold standard methods is needed. As nutritional and exercise interventions for sarcopenia are available, simple methods for diagnosing sarcopenia in fallers should be considered

Major variations in subtropical North Atlantic heat transport at short (5 day) timescales and their causes

Variability in the North Atlantic ocean heat transport at 26.5°N on short (5-day) timescales is identified and contrasted with different behaviour at monthly intervals using a combination of RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS measurements and the NEMO-LIM2 1/12° ocean circulation/sea ice model. Wind forcing plays the leading role in establishing the heat transport variability through the Ekman transport response of the ocean and the associated driving atmospheric conditions vary significantly with timescale. We find that at 5-day timescales the largest changes in the heat transport across 26.5°N coincide with north-westerly airflows originating over the American land mass that drive strong southward anomalies in the Ekman flow. During these events the northward heat transport reduces by 0.5-1.4 PW. In contrast, the Ekman transport response at longer monthly timescales is smaller in magnitude (up to 0.5 PW) and consistent with expected variations in the leading mode of North Atlantic atmospheric variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. The north-westerly airflow mechanism can have a prolonged influence beyond the central 5-day timescale and on occasion can reduce the accumulated winter ocean heat transport into the North Atlantic by ∼40%

Decreasing intensity of open-ocean convection in the Greenland and Iceland seas

The air–sea transfer of heat and fresh water plays a critical role in the global climate system. This is particularly true for the Greenland and Iceland seas, where these fluxes drive ocean convection that contributes to Denmark Strait overflow water, the densest component of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the wintertime retreat of sea ice in the region, combined with different rates of warming for the atmosphere and sea surface of the Greenland and Iceland seas, has resulted in statistically significant reductions of approximately 20% in the magnitude of the winter air–sea heat fluxes since 1979. We also show that modes of climate variability other than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are required to fully characterize the regional air–sea interaction. Mixed-layer model simulations imply that further decreases in atmospheric forcing will exceed a threshold for the Greenland Sea whereby convection will become depth limited, reducing the ventilation of mid-depth waters in the Nordic seas. In the Iceland Sea, further reductions have the potential to decrease the supply of the densest overflow waters to the AMOC

Deep ocean particle flux in the Northeast Atlantic over the past 30 years: carbon sequestration is controlled by ecosystem structure in the upper ocean

The time series of downward particle flux at 3000 m at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the Northeast Atlantic is presented for the period 1989 to 2018. This flux can be considered to be sequestered for more than 100 years. Measured levels of organic carbon sequestration (average 1.88 gm−2 y−1) are higher on average at this location than at the six other time series locations in the Atlantic. Interannual variability is also greater than at the other locations (organic carbon flux coefficient of variation = 73%). We find that previously hypothesised drivers of 3,000 m flux, such as net primary production (NPP) and previous-winter mixing are not good predictors of this sequestration flux. In contrast, the composition of the upper ocean biological community, specifically the protozoan Rhizaria (including the Foraminifera and Radiolaria) exhibit a close relationship to sequestration flux. These species become particularly abundant following enhanced upper ocean temperatures in June leading to pulses of this material reaching 3,000 m depth in the late summer. In some years, the organic carbon flux pulses following Rhizaria blooms were responsible for substantial increases in carbon sequestration and we propose that the Rhizaria are one of the major vehicles by which material is transported over a very large depth range (3,000 m) and hence sequestered for climatically relevant time periods. We propose that they sink fast and are degraded little during their transport to depth. In terms of atmospheric CO2 uptake by the oceans, the Radiolaria and Phaeodaria are likely to have the greatest influence. Foraminifera will also exert an influence in spite of the fact that the generation of their calcite tests enhances upper ocean CO2 concentration and hence reduces uptake from the atmosphere

Atlantic overturning in decline?

Global ocean circulation is an important factor in climate variability and change. In particular, changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in ancient climate events, as well as in recent climate anomalies such as the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. A series of moored current meters and temperature sensors deployed in the Atlantic at 26° N known as the RAPID-MOCHA array has been used to monitor the strength of meridional overturning since 2004. The data indicate a decline in this strength over the period 2004–20123. Here, using additional observations and climate model simulations we suggest that this measured decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but is part of a substantial reduction in meridional overturning occurring on a decadal timescale

The transformation of transport policy in Great Britain? 'New Realism' and New Labour's decade of displacement activity

In a 1999 paper, Goodwin announced ‘the transformation of transport policy in Great Britain’. His central point was that consensus was emerging among policy makers and academics based on earlier work including Transport: The New Realism, which rejected previous orthodoxy that the supply of road space could and should be continually expanded to match demand. Instead a combination of investment in public transport, walking and cycling opportunities and – crucially – demand management should form the basis of transport policy to address rising vehicle use and associated increases in congestion and pollution / carbon emissions. This thinking formed the basis of the 1997 Labour government’s ‘sustainable transport’ policy, but after 13 years in power ministers neither transformed policy nor tackled longstanding transport trends. Our main aim in this paper is to revisit the concept of New Realism and re-examine its potential utility as an agent of change in British transport policy. Notwithstanding the outcome of Labour’s approach to transport policy, we find that the central tenets of the New Realism remain robust and that the main barriers to change are related to broader political and governance issues which suppress radical policy innovation

A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts, such as increased hurricane numbers, and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately -0.45C or 1.5x10^22 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures

Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been, and will continue to be, a key factor in the modulation of climate change both locally and globally. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in recent AMOC evolution. Here, we show that the multi-model mean AMOC strengthened by approximately 10% from 1850-1985 in new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6), a larger change than was seen in CMIP5. Across the models, the strength of the AMOC trend up to 1985 is related to a proxy for the strength of the aerosol forcing. Therefore, the multi-model difference is a result of stronger anthropogenic aerosol forcing on average in CMIP6 than CMIP5, which is primarily due to more models including aerosol-cloud interactions. However, observational constraints - including a historical sea surface temperature fingerprint and shortwave radiative forcing in recent decades - suggest that anthropogenic forcing and/or the AMOC response may be overestimated

Compensation between meridional flow components of the AMOC at 26° N

From ten years of observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 26◦ N (2004– 2014), we revisit the question of flow compensation between components of the circulation. Contrasting with early results from the observations, transport variations of the Florida Current (FC) and upper mid-ocean (UMO) transports (top 1000 m east of the Bahamas) are now found to compensate on sub-annual timescales. The observed compensation between the FC and UMO transports is associated with horizontal circulation and means that this part of the correlated variability does not project onto the MOC. A deep baroclinic response to wind-forcing (Ekman transport) is also found in the lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW; 3000– 5000 m) transport. In contrast, co-variability between Ekman and the LNADW transports does contribute to overturning. On longer timescales, the southward UMO transport has continued to strengthen, resulting in a continued decline of the MOC. Most of this interannual variability of the MOC can be traced to changes in isopycnal displacements on the western boundary, within the top 1000 m and below 2000 m. Substantial trends are observed in isopycnal displacements in the deep ocean, underscoring the importance of deep boundary measurements to capture the variability of the Atlantic MOC