54 research outputs found
Optimal Investment Horizons for Stocks and Markets
The inverse statistics is the distribution of waiting times needed to achieve
a predefined level of return obtained from (detrended) historic asset prices
\cite{optihori,gainloss}. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum
at a time coined the {\em optimal investment horizon}, , which
defines the most likely waiting time for obtaining a given return . By
considering equal positive and negative levels of return, we reported in
\cite{gainloss} on a quantitative gain/loss asymmetry most pronounced for short
horizons. In the present paper, the inverse statistics for 2/3 of the
individual stocks presently in the DJIA is investigated. We show that this
gain/loss asymmetry established for the DJIA surprisingly is {\em not} present
in the time series of the individual stocks nor their average. This observation
points towards some kind of collective movement of the stocks of the index
(synchronization).Comment: Subm. to Physica A as Conference Proceedings of Econophysics
Colloquium, ANU Canberra, 13-17 Nov. 2005. 6 pages including figure
Inverse Statistics in the Foreign Exchange Market
We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse
statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged
distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease)
in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch
mark (DM) against the US. With high statistical
significance, the presence of "resonance peaks" in the waiting time
distributions is established. Such peaks are a consequence of the trading
habits of the markets participants as they are not present in the corresponding
tick (business) waiting time distributions. Furthermore, a new {\em stylized
fact}, is observed for the waiting time distribution in the form of a power law
Pdf. This result is achieved by rescaling of the physical waiting time by the
corresponding tick time thereby partially removing scale dependent features of
the market activity.Comment: 8 pages. Accepted Physica
O PAEG e o plano trienal: uma análise comparativa de suas políticas de estabilização de curto prazo
O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar as políticas de estabilização de curto prazo propostas pelo Plano Trienal (1962) e pelo Plano de Ação Econômica do Governo (1964) através da comparação das principais medidas implementadas e dos resultados alcançados pelos dois planos. No caso, pretende-se mostrar que os planos tinham semelhanças, sendo a política salarial do PAEG o principal ponto de distinção. Nesse contexto, as grandes diferenças de desempenho foram devidas à incapacidade do Trienal - em função dos turbulentos contextos interno e externo - de equacionar os problemas do conflito distributivo e do estrangulamento externo. O PAEG, por sua vez, equacionou os dois problemas, mas resolveu o conflito distributivo através de uma solução regressiva e, no caso do estrangulamento externo, obteve uma ajuda norte-americana com a qual o Plano Trienal não pôde contar
Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.
BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362
Mario Henrique Simonsen
O AUTOR inicia o artigo efetuando uma breve revisão da literatura nacional que analisa as contribuições de Mario Henrique Simonsen à teoria econômica. Em seguida, detalham-se quatro pontos não abordados nos trabalhos revistos. Em particular, sua derradeira contribuição, referente à literatura sobre os custos de bem-estar da inflação, pesquisa que deu origem recentemente, cinco anos após o seu falecimento, a um artigo publicado no prestigioso Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.<br>THE AUTHOR starts the article by presenting a short a review of the Brazilian literature concerning the academic contributions of Mario Henrique Simonsen. In a subsequent step, four points not included in the works surveyed are detailed. Particularly, his last contribution, related to the welfare costs of inflation, which lead to an article published in February of 2001, five years after his death, in the prestigious Journal of Money Credit and Banking
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