A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation

BACKGROUND: An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior. RESULTS: In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS. CONCLUSION: We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down

The burden of diseases and risk factors in Bangladesh, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Bangladesh has made substantial progress in improving socioeconomic and health indicators over the past 50 years, but data on national disease burden are scarce. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to estimate the burden of diseases and risk factors in Bangladesh from 1990 to 2019. / Methods: For this systematic analysis, we analysed data from vital registration systems, surveys, and censuses using multistage modelling processes to estimate life expectancy at birth, mortality rate, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Additionally, we compared the health status of Bangladesh with that of the other countries in the GBD south Asia region—Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. / Findings: Life expectancy at birth in Bangladesh increased from 58·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 57·1–59·2) in 1990 to 74·6 years (72·4–76·7) in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 1509·3 (1428·6–1592·1) to 714·4 (604·9–838·2) deaths per 100 000 population. In 2019, non-communicable diseases represented 14 of the top 20 causes of death; the leading three causes were stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. High blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking were the top three risk factors. From 1990 to 2019, the rate of all-cause DALYs decreased by 54·9% (48·8–60·4). In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs and YLLs were neonatal disorders, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease, whereas musculoskeletal disorders, depressive disorders, and low back pain were the leading causes of YLDs. Bangladesh has the lowest age-standardised rates of mortality, YLDs, and YLLs and the highest life expectancy at birth in south Asia. / Interpretation: Over the past 30 years, mortality rates have reduced by more than half in Bangladesh. Bangladesh must now address the double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. Cost-effective, multisectoral efforts are needed to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, promote healthy lifestyles, and prevent premature mortality and disabilities. / Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. / Translation: For the Bangla translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Analysis of Polymorphisms and Haplotype Structure of the Human Thymidylate Synthase Genetic Region: A Tool for Pharmacogenetic Studies

5-fluorouracil (5FU), a widely used chemotherapeutic drug, inhibits the DNA replicative enzyme, thymidylate synthase (Tyms). Prior studies implicated a VNTR (variable numbers of tandem repeats) polymorphism in the 5′-untranslated region (5′-UTR) of the TYMS gene as a determinant of Tyms expression in tumors and normal tissues and proposed that these VNTR genotypes could help decide fluoropyrimidine dosing. Clinical associations between 5FU-related toxicity and the TYMS VNTR were reported, however, results were inconsistent, suggesting that additional genetic variation in the TYMS gene might influence Tyms expression. We thus conducted a detailed genetic analysis of this region, defining new polymorphisms in this gene including mononucleotide (poly A:T) repeats and novel single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) flanking the VNTR in the TYMS genetic region. Our haplotype analysis of this region used data from both established and novel genetic variants and found nine SNP haplotypes accounting for more than 90% of the studied population. We observed non-exclusive relationships between the VNTR and adjacent SNP haplotypes, such that each type of VNTR commonly occurred on several haplotype backgrounds. Our results confirmed the expectation that the VNTR alleles exhibit homoplasy and lack the common ancestry required for a reliable marker of a linked adjacent locus that might govern toxicity. We propose that it may be necessary in a clinical trial to assay multiple types of genetic polymorphisms in the TYMS region to meaningfully model linkage of genetic markers to 5FU-related toxicity. The presence of multiple long (up to 26 nt), polymorphic monothymidine repeats in the promoter region of the sole human thymidylate synthetic enzyme is intriguing

Phase II study of preoperative radiation plus concurrent daily tegafur-uracil (UFT) with leucovorin for locally advanced rectal cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Considerable variation in intravenous 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) metabolism can occur due to the wide range of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) enzyme activity, which can affect both tolerability and efficacy. The oral fluoropyrimidine tegafur-uracil (UFT) is an effective, well-tolerated and convenient alternative to intravenous 5-FU. We undertook this study in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of UFT with leucovorin (LV) and preoperative radiotherapy and to evaluate the utility and limitations of multicenter staging using pre- and post-chemoradiotherapy ultrasound. We also performed a validated pretherapy assessment of DPD activity and assessed its potential influence on the tolerability of UFT treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This phase II study assessed preoperative UFT with LV and radiotherapy in 85 patients with locally advanced T3 rectal cancer. Patients with potentially resectable tumors received UFT (300 mg/m/²/day), LV (75 mg/day), and pelvic radiotherapy (1.8 Gy/day, 45 Gy total) 5 days/week for 5 weeks then surgery 4-6 weeks later. The primary endpoints included tumor downstaging and the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most adverse events were mild to moderate in nature. Preoperative grade 3/4 adverse events included diarrhea (n = 18, 21%) and nausea/vomiting (n = 5, 6%). Two patients heterozygous for dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene (<it>DPYD</it>) experienced early grade 4 neutropenia (variant IVS14+1G > A) and diarrhea (variant 2846A > T). Pretreatment ultrasound TNM staging was compared with postchemoradiotherapy pathology TN staging and a significant shift towards earlier TNM stages was observed (p < 0.001). The overall downstaging rate was 42% for primary tumors and 44% for lymph nodes. The pCR rate was 8%. The sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound for staging was poor. Anal sphincter function was preserved in 55 patients (65%). Overall and recurrence-free survival at 3 years was 86.1% and 66.7%, respectively. Adjuvant chemotherapy was administered to 36 node-positive patients (mean duration 118 days).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Preoperative chemoradiotherapy using UFT with LV plus radiotherapy was well tolerated and effective and represents a convenient alternative to 5-FU-based chemoradiotherapy for the treatment of resectable rectal cancer. Pretreatment detection of DPD deficiency should be performed to avoid severe adverse events.</p

Panax ginseng Modulates Cytokines in Bone Marrow Toxicity and Myelopoiesis: Ginsenoside Rg1 Partially Supports Myelopoiesis

In this study, we have demonstrated that Korean Panax ginseng (KG) significantly enhances myelopoiesis in vitro and reconstitutes bone marrow after 5-flurouracil-induced (5FU) myelosuppression in mice. KG promoted total white blood cell, lymphocyte, neutrophil and platelet counts and improved body weight, spleen weight, and thymus weight. The number of CFU-GM in bone marrow cells of mice and serum levels of IL-3 and GM-CSF were significantly improved after KG treatment. KG induced significant c-Kit, SCF and IL-1 mRNA expression in spleen. Moreover, treatment with KG led to marked improvements in 5FU-induced histopathological changes in bone marrow and spleen, and partial suppression of thymus damage. The levels of IL-3 and GM-CSF in cultured bone marrow cells after 24 h stimulation with KG were considerably increased. The mechanism underlying promotion of myelopoiesis by KG was assessed by monitoring gene expression at two time-points of 4 and 8 h. Treatment with Rg1 (0.5, 1 and 1.5 µmol) specifically enhanced c-Kit, IL-6 and TNF-α mRNA expression in cultured bone marrow cells. Our results collectively suggest that the anti-myelotoxicity activity and promotion of myelopoiesis by KG are mediated through cytokines. Moreover, the ginsenoside, Rg1, supports the role of KG in myelopoiesis to some extent

Clinical practice guidelines for the prevention and treatment of EGFR inhibitor-associated dermatologic toxicities

Background Epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors (EGFRI) produce various dermatologic side effects in the majority of patients, and guidelines are crucial for the prevention and treatment of these untoward events. The purpose of this panel was to develop evidence-based recommendations for EGFRI-associated dermatologic toxicities. Methods A multinational, interdisciplinary panel of experts in supportive care in cancer reviewed pertinent studies using established criteria in order to develop first-generation recommendations for EGFRI-associated dermatologic toxicities. Results Prophylactic and reactive recommendations for papulopustular (acneiform) rash, hair changes, radiation dermatitis, pruritus, mucositis, xerosis/fissures, and paronychia are presented, as well as general dermatologic recommendations when possible. Conclusion Prevention and management of EGFRI-related dermatologic toxicities is critical to maintain patients’ health-related quality of life and dose intensity of antineoplastic regimens. More rigorous investigation of these toxicities is warranted to improve preventive and treatment strategies

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.publishedVersio