Influência da estrutura da matriz de covariâncias na classificação de reprodutores caprinos

Analisaram-se dados de peso-idade de 412 caprinos da raça Moxotó, filhos de 151 mães e 50 pais, nascidos entre 1984 e 1988, nos meses de março a julho, no estado de Pernambuco, totalizando 1749 observações. Considerou-se um modelo misto com os seguintes fatores: sexo (S), ano de nascimento (A), mês de nascimento (M), tipo de parto (T), tipo de pelagem (P), ordem de parto (O), efeito linear da umidade relativa (U), efeito linear da temperatura (C), efeito linear da pluviosidade (H), efeito aleatório do reprodutor (R), efeito aleatório da mãe (F), efeito linear (D) e quadrático (D2) do fator tempo em dias. O objetivo do trabalho foi verificar a influência do tipo de matriz de covariância entre pesos sobre a predição de efeitos aleatórios e sua influência na classificação de reprodutores. Ajustaram-se as matrizes simetria composta (CS), simetria composta heterogênea (CSH), autorregressiva de ordem um (AR(1)), autorregressiva heterogênea de ordem um (ARH(1)), autorregressiva de médias móveis de ordem um (ARMA(1,1)), Toeplitz heterogênea (TOEPH), não estruturada com correlações (UNR), componente de variância (VC) e spatial power (SP(POW)). A alteração do tipo da matriz de covariância alterou a predição dos efeitos aleatórios e fixos estudados no modelo. A matriz mais adequada foi a ARH(1), os efeitos influentes para o melhor modelo foram reprodutor (p<0,05), fêmea (p<0,01), sexo (p<0,01) e tipo de parto (p<0,01) e efeito linear e quadrático do tempo (p<0,01)

Time-integrated luminosity recorded by the BABAR detector at the PEP-II e+e- collider

This article is the Preprint version of the final published artcile which can be accessed at the link below.We describe a measurement of the time-integrated luminosity of the data collected by the BABAR experiment at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e+e- collider at the ϒ(4S), ϒ(3S), and ϒ(2S) resonances and in a continuum region below each resonance. We measure the time-integrated luminosity by counting e+e-→e+e- and (for the ϒ(4S) only) e+e-→μ+μ- candidate events, allowing additional photons in the final state. We use data-corrected simulation to determine the cross-sections and reconstruction efficiencies for these processes, as well as the major backgrounds. Due to the large cross-sections of e+e-→e+e- and e+e-→μ+μ-, the statistical uncertainties of the measurement are substantially smaller than the systematic uncertainties. The dominant systematic uncertainties are due to observed differences between data and simulation, as well as uncertainties on the cross-sections. For data collected on the ϒ(3S) and ϒ(2S) resonances, an additional uncertainty arises due to ϒ→e+e-X background. For data collected off the ϒ resonances, we estimate an additional uncertainty due to time dependent efficiency variations, which can affect the short off-resonance runs. The relative uncertainties on the luminosities of the on-resonance (off-resonance) samples are 0.43% (0.43%) for the ϒ(4S), 0.58% (0.72%) for the ϒ(3S), and 0.68% (0.88%) for the ϒ(2S).This work is supported by the US Department of Energy and National Science Foundation, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Canada), the Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique and Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physiquedes Particules (France), the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany), the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (Italy), the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter (The Netherlands), the Research Council of Norway, the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain), and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie IEF program (European Union) and the A.P. Sloan Foundation (USA)

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Observation of the baryonic decay B \uaf 0 \u2192 \u39bc+ p \uaf K-K+

We report the observation of the baryonic decay B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uafK-K+ using a data sample of 471 7106 BB\uaf pairs produced in e+e- annihilations at s=10.58GeV. This data sample was recorded with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II storage ring at SLAC. We find B(B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uafK-K+)=(2.5\ub10.4(stat)\ub10.2(syst)\ub10.6B(\u39bc+)) 710-5, where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic, and due to the uncertainty of the \u39bc+\u2192pK-\u3c0+ branching fraction, respectively. The result has a significance corresponding to 5.0 standard deviations, including all uncertainties. For the resonant decay B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uaf\u3c6, we determine the upper limit B(B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uaf\u3c6)<1.2 710-5 at 90% confidence level

Inferência bayesiana aplicada à estimação de herdabilidades dos parâmetros da curva de crescimento de fêmeas da raça Nelore

Objetivou-se estimar parâmetros genéticos, utilizando inferência Bayesiana, para as estimativas dos parâmetros individuais de peso à maturidade (Â) e taxa de crescimento, obtidos pela função de crescimento Brody. O arquivo estava constituído de 14.563 registros de pesos e idades referentes a 1.158 fêmeas da raça Nelore, participantes do Programa de Melhoramento Genético da Raça Nelore. Para a análise das estimativas dos parâmetros da curva, via inferência bayesiana, foi proposto um modelo animal unicaráter, que incluiu como fixo o efeito de grupo contemporâneo (animais nascidos no mesmo estado, no mesmo trimestre do ano, mesmo ano e mesmo regime alimentar) e como aleatórios os efeitos genético direto e residual. Nessa análise, foram utilizados dois diferentes tamanhos para as cadeias geradas pelo algoritmo de amostragem de Gibbs, de 550 e 1.100 mil ciclos, com períodos de descarte amostral de 50 e 100 mil ciclos, respectivamente, e amostragens a cada 500 e 1.000 ciclos, respectivamente. As médias posteriores da variância genética aditiva e residual foram próximas, tanto para  quanto para a, mesmo quando implementados diferentes tamanhos para as cadeias geradas pelo algoritmo de amostragem de Gibbs. Os coeficientes de herdabilidade estimados para Â, variaram de 0,44 a 0,46, amplitude semelhante aos 0,46 a 0,48 obtidos para as estimativas de. Essas magnitudes indicam que a seleção pode ser usada como instrumento para alterar a forma da curva de crescimento desses animais. Entretanto, o uso das informações obtidas, visando à alteração da curva de crescimento dos animais, deve ser feito com grande cautela, uma vez que as características a serem trabalhadas na modificação do formato da curva de crescimento, de acordo com resultados da literatura especializada, são negativamente correlacionadas.The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters using Bayesian inference for the estimates of individual parameters of mature weight (Â) and growth rate, obtained by Brody growth function. The file consisted of 14,563 records relating to weights and ages of 1,158 Nelore females, participants in the Genetic Improvement Program of the Nellore. For the estimates analysis of the curve parameters via Bayesian inference, it was used an univariated animal model that included as fixed effect of contemporary group (animals born on the same state, in the same quarter of the year, the same year and feedlot) and random as the direct genetic and residual. In this analysis it was used two different sizes for the chains generated by Gibbs sampling algorithm, 550 and 1.1 million cycles, with initial discarding of 50 000 and sample of 100 000 cycles, respectively, and sampled every 500 cycles and 1000, respectively. The mean posterior and residual additive genetic variance showed a small variation to both  and, even when implemented in different sizes for the chains generated by Gibbs sampling algorithm. The heritability estimates for Â, ranged from 0.44 to 0.46, similar to the range 0.46 to 0.48 obtained for the estimates of. These magnitudes indicate that the selection can be used as a tool to change the shape of the growth curve of these animals. However, the use of the information to amend the growth curve of animals, must be done with great care, since the traits to be worked in the modification of the shape of the growth curve according to the literature results are negatively correlated.Campus de São Gabriel Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA)Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) Pecuária SudesteUniversidade de Brasília (UnB) Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária (FAV)UNESP Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias (FCAV) Departamento de ZootecniaAssociação Nacional de Criadores e Pesquisadores (ANCP)UNESP Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias (FCAV) Departamento de Zootecni