THE PROPAGATION AND EVOLUTION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION DRIVEN SHEATH REGIONS: INSIGHT FROM MULTI-SPACECRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL APPROACHES

The complexities of our nearest star, the Sun, are characterized by its magnetic field. In the absence of a magnetic field, diverse phenomena as the solar cycle, solar eruptions, solar wind, to name but a few, would be unknown to us. Coronal mass ejections, a large form of solar eruption, are an essential mechanism for the evolution of the Sun. CMEs provide a means by which the built-up magnetic flux and solar material over solar cycles are removed from the solar atmosphere into the solar wind. This spectacular phenomenon has repercussions throughout the heliosphere, driving a range of heliospheric, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric, and ground effects, collectively called space weather. Each CME structure (shock, sheath, and magnetic ejecta) has distinctive characteristics, but all cause perturbations on different scales within regular solar wind conditions. CME-driven shock is the discontinuous transition from a supersonic (or more accurately faster than the fast magnetosonic speed) to a subsonic (or more accurately slower than the fast magnetosonic speed) solar wind, and the sheath is the region of compressed and heated solar wind plasma with higherpower of magnetic field fluctuations. In contrast, the magnetic ejecta is a magnetically-dominated region of lower proton density and kinetic temperature with minimal magnetic field fluctuations. In this thesis, the characteristics and radial evolution of CME sheaths are investigated with multi-spacecraft observations in the inner heliosphere and single-spacecraft measurements near 1 astronomical unit (AU, the mean distance from the center of the Earth to the center of the Sun). In general, the radial evolution of CMEs is inferred from analyzing different CMEs at different heliospheric distances from the Sun. Such statistical approaches are hindered by the inhomogeneity of CMEs, leading to uncertain estimates. The results presented in this thesis provide observational evidence of the inhomogeneity of CME structures. Especially as the heliocentric distance increases, the exponential decrease of the magnetic field strength within the sheath has less CME-to-CME variability than the CME. The results also indicatethat CME expansion near 1 AU does not reflect its expansion in the innermost heliosphere. However, multi-spacecraft observations can also lead to an erroneous treatment of the radial evolution. Our findings suggest that the primary sources of uncertainties in multi-spacecraft observations are longitudinal separations between the measuring spacecraft. This thesis sheds new light on the physical processes responsible for the observed variabilities of CME sheaths near-Earth. The results point towards the hypothesis that such observed variabilities of CME sheaths near 1 AU are likely to be governed by the sheath formation mechanisms and intrinsic CME characteristics. One fascinating aspect of our findings is that sheath variabilities tend to be not influenced by the shocks that precede them. On the other hand, preliminary statistics from our threshold-based probabilistic forecasting model demonstrate the importance of shocks, hinting at the solar wind variations in the vicinity of shocks to be a strong indicator of an upcoming intense and prolonged southward magnetic field period

New Observations Needed to Advance Our Understanding of Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions from the Sun that propagate through the heliosphere after launch. Observational studies of these transient phenomena are usually based on 2D images of the Sun, corona, and heliosphere (remote-sensing data), as well as magnetic field, plasma, and particle samples along a 1D spacecraft trajectory (in-situ data). Given the large scales involved and the 3D nature of CMEs, such measurements are generally insufficient to build a comprehensive picture, especially in terms of local variations and overall geometry of the whole structure. This White Paper aims to address this issue by identifying the data sets and observational priorities that are needed to effectively advance our current understanding of the structure and evolution of CMEs, in both the remote-sensing and in-situ regimes. It also provides an outlook of possible missions and instruments that may yield significant improvements into the subject.Comment: White Paper submitted to the Heliophysics 2024-2033 Decadal Survey, 9 pages, 4 figure

Redefining flux ropes in heliophysics

Magnetic flux ropes manifest as twisted bundles of magnetic field lines. They carry significant amounts of solar mass in the heliosphere. This paper underlines the need to advance our understanding of the fundamental physics of heliospheric flux ropes and provides the motivation to significantly improve the status quo of flux rope research through novel and requisite approaches. It briefly discusses the current understanding of flux rope formation and evolution, and summarizes the strategies that have been undertaken to understand the dynamics of heliospheric structures. The challenges and recommendations put forward to address them are expected to broaden the in-depth knowledge of our nearest star, its dynamics, and its role in its region of influence, the heliosphere.Fil: Nieves Chinchilla, Teresa. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Pal, Sanchita. George Mason University. School Of Physics. Astronomy And Computational Sciences; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Salman, Tarik M.. George Mason University. School Of Physics. Astronomy And Computational Sciences; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Carcaboso, Fernando. Catholic University Of America; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Guidoni, Silvina E.. American University. College Of Arts & Sciences. Physics Departament.; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Cremades Fernandez, Maria Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Mendoza. Facultad de Ingenieria; ArgentinaFil: Narock, Ayris. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Balmaceda, Laura Antonia. George Mason University. School Of Physics. Astronomy And Computational Sciences; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Lynch, Benjamin J.. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Al Haddad, Nada. University Of New Hampshire; Estados UnidosFil: Rodríguez García, Laura. Universidad de Alcalá; EspañaFil: Narock, Thomas W.. Goucher College; Estados UnidosFil: Dos Santos, Luiz F. G.. Shell Global Solutions; Estados UnidosFil: Regnault, Florian. University Of New Hampshire; Estados UnidosFil: Kay, Christina. Catholic University Of America; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Winslow, Réka M.. University Of New Hampshire; Estados UnidosFil: Palmerio, Erika. Predictive Science Inc.; Estados UnidosFil: Davies, Emma E.. University Of New Hampshire; Estados UnidosFil: Scolini, Camilla. University Of New Hampshire; Estados UnidosFil: Weiss, Andreas J.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Alzate, Nathalia. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Jeunon, Mariana. Catholic University Of America; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Pujadas, Roger. Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya; España. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unido

On the importance of investigating CME complexity evolution during interplanetary propagation

This perspective paper brings to light the need for comprehensive studies on the evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) complexity during propagation. To date, few studies of ICME complexity exist. Here, we define ICME complexity and associated changes in complexity, describe recent works and their limitations, and outline key science questions that need to be tackled. Fundamental research on ICME complexity changes from the solar corona to 1 AU and beyond is critical to our physical understanding of the evolution and interaction of transients in the inner heliosphere. Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of such changes is required to understand the space weather impact of ICMEs at different heliospheric locations and to improve on predictive space weather models

The global, regional, and national burden of adult lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancer in 204 countries and territories:A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts

Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability. Methods We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050. Findings An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51–1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5–21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3–449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7–479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3–142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2–63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35–2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3–65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence. Interpretation As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe