Assimilation of satellite swaths versus daily means of sea ice concentration in a regional coupled ocean–sea ice model

Operational forecasting systems routinely assimilate daily means of sea ice concentration (SIC) from microwave radiometers in order to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. However, the temporal and spatial averaging of the individual satellite swaths into daily means of SIC entails two main drawbacks: (i) the spatial resolution of the original product is blurred (especially critical in periods with strong sub-daily sea ice movement), and (ii) the sub-daily frequency of passive microwave observations in the Arctic are not used, providing less temporal resolution in the data assimilation (DA) analysis and, therefore, in the forecast. Within the SIRANO (Sea Ice Retrievals and data Assimilation in NOrway) project, we investigate how challenges (i) and (ii) can be avoided by assimilating individual satellite swaths (level 3 uncollated) instead of daily means (level 3) of SIC. To do so, we use a regional configuration of the Barents Sea (2.5 km grid) based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) together with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as the DA system. The assimilation of individual swaths significantly improves the EnKF analysis of SIC compared to the assimilation of daily means; the mean absolute difference (MAD) shows a 10 % improvement at the end of the assimilation period and a 7 % improvement at the end of the 7 d forecast period. This improvement is caused by better exploitation of the information provided by the SIC swath data, in terms of both spatial and temporal variance, compared to the case when the swaths are combined to form a daily mean before assimilation.</p

Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard

An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5, is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean currents. The model is also a substantial input for drift modeling of pollutants, ice berg, and in search-and-rescue pertinent applications in the Arctic domain. Barents-2.5 has recently been upgraded to include an Ensemble Prediction System with 24 daily realizations of the model state. SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography are constrained through the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme executed in daily forecast cycles with lead time up to 66 hours. While the ocean circulation is not directly constrained by assimilation of ocean currents, the model ensemble represents the given uncertainty in the short-term current field by retaining the current state for each member throughout forecast cycles. Here we present the model setup and a validation in terms of SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography. The performance of the ensemble to represent the models uncertainty, and the performance of the EnKF to constrain the model state are discussed, in addition to the model&rsquo;s forecast capabilities for SIC and SST.</p

Calibrating fault seal using a hydrocarbon migration model of the Oseberg Syd area, Viking Graben

It is widely acknowledged that fault rock capillary properties are important in controlling the distribution of hydrocarbons in sedimentary basins, and methods exist for predicting the capillary seal capacity of prospect bounding faults. However, fault seal capacity is rarely incorporated into models of hydrocarbon migration. This paper presents the results of migration modelling of the Oseberg Syd area of the Viking Graben incorporating fault rock capillary properties. Seal capacity is calculated in the model as a function of Shale Gouge Ratio (SGR), i.e. the percentage shale in the sequence moved past a point on a fault. Over 3 000 model realisations were run for different SGR to fault seal capacity relationships and the calculated hydrocarbon distributions were compared with known distributions. Realisations were ranked according to the closeness of fit between model and actual oil-water contacts for 7 traps. The best-fit to all 7 traps was provided by realisations with significant seal capacity at SGR values greater than ca. 0.2; a value which is in agreement with an independently derived fault-by-fault calibration between SGR and seal capacity. The level of fill calculated for an individual trap is extremely sensitive to minor changes in the seal capacity relationship because it is controlled not only by the seal capacities of the faults that bound the trap, but also by the pattern of fill-spill of upstream traps. This sensitivity to minor changes in seal capacity introduces large uncertainties when fault seal capacity relationships are used in a predictive mode and emphasises the requirement for migration modelling in fault seal prospect evaluation.Not applicabl

Closing the loop Approaches to monitoring the state of the Arctic Mediterranean during the International Polar Year 20072008

During the 4th International Polar Year 2007–2009 (IPY), it has become increasingly obvious that we need to prepare for a new era in the Arctic. IPY occurred during the time of the largest retreat of Arctic sea ice since satellite observations started in 1979. This minimum in September sea ice coverage was accompanied by other signs of a changing Arctic, including the unexpectedly rapid transpolar drift of the Tara schooner, a general thinning of Arctic sea ice and a double-dip minimum of the Arctic Oscillation at the end of 2009. Thanks to the lucky timing of the IPY, those recent phenomena are well documented as they have been scrutinized by the international research community, taking advantage of the dedicated observing systems that were deployed during IPY. However, understanding changes in the Arctic System likely requires monitoring over decades, not years. Many IPY projects have contributed to the pilot phase of a future, sustained, observing system for the Arctic. We now know that many of the technical challenges can be overcome. The Norwegian projects iAOOS-Norway, POLEWARD and MEOP were significant ocean monitoring/research contributions during the IPY. A large variety of techniques were used in these programs, ranging from oceanographic cruises to animal-borne platforms, autonomous gliders, helicopter surveys, surface drifters and current meter arrays. Our research approach was interdisciplinary from the outset, merging ocean dynamics, hydrography, biology, sea ice studies, as well as forecasting. The datasets are tremendously rich, and they will surely yield numerous findings in the years to come. Here, we present a status report at the end of the official period for IPY. Highlights of the research include: a quantification of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Nordic Seas (“the loop”) in thermal space, based on a set of up to 15-year-long series of current measurements; a detailed map of the surface circulation as well as characterization of eddy dispersion based on drifter data; transport monitoring of Atlantic Water using gliders; a view of the water mass exchanges in the Norwegian Atlantic Current from both Eulerian and Lagrangian data; an integrated physical–biological view of the ice-influenced ecosystem in the East Greenland Current, showing for instance nutrient-limited primary production as a consequence of decreasing ice cover for larger regions of the Arctic Ocean. Our sea ice studies show that the albedo of snow on ice is lower when snow cover is thinner and suggest that reductions in sea ice thickness, without changes in sea ice extent, will have a significant impact on the arctic atmosphere. We present up-to-date freshwater transport numbers for the East Greenland Current in the Fram Strait, as well as the first map of the annual cycle of freshwater layer thickness in the East Greenland Current along the east coast of Greenland, from data obtained by CTDs mounted on seals that traveled back and forth across the Nordic Seas. We have taken advantage of the real-time transmission of some of these platforms and demonstrate the use of ice-tethered profilers in validating satellite products of sea ice motion, as well as the use of Seagliders in validating ocean forecasts, and we present a sea ice drift product – significantly improved both in space and time – for use in operational ice-forecasting applications. We consider real-time acquisition of data from the ocean interior to be a vital component of a sustained Arctic Ocean Observing System, and we conclude by presenting an outline for an observing system for the European sector of the Arctic Ocean