Integrated species distribution models: a comparison of approaches under different data quality scenarios

Aim: Integrated species distribution modelling has emerged as a useful tool for ecologists to exploit the range of information available on where species occur. In particular, the ability to combine large numbers of ad hoc or presence‐only (PO) records with more structured presence–absence (PA) data can allow ecologists to account for biases in PO data which often confound modelling efforts. A range of modelling techniques have been suggested to implement integrated species distribution models (IDMs) including joint likelihood models, including one dataset as a covariate or informative prior, and fitting a correlation structure between datasets. We aim to investigate the performance of different types of integrated models under realistic ecological data scenarios. Innovation: We use a virtual ecologist approach to investigate which integrated model is most advantageous under varying levels of spatial bias in PO data, sample size of PA data and spatial overlap between datasets. Main conclusions: Joint likelihood models were the best performing models when spatial bias in PO data was low, or could be modelled, but gave poor estimates when there were unknown biases in the data. Correlation models provided good model estimates even when there were unknown biases and when good quality PA data were spatially limited. Including PO data via an informative prior provided little improvement over modelling PA data alone and was inferior to using either the joint likelihood or correlation approach. Our results suggest that correlation models provide a robust alternative to joint likelihood models when covariates related to effort or detection in PO data are not available. Ecologists should be aware of the limitations of each approach and consider how well biases in the data can be modelled when deciding which type of IDM to use

Primary physical education, coaches and continuing professional development

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Sport, Education and Society, 16(4), 485 - 505, 2011, copyright @ Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13573322.2011.589645.Physical education (PE) in primary schools has traditionally been taught by qualified primary teachers. More recently, some teaching of PE in primary schools has been undertaken by coaches (mostly football coaches). These coaches hold national governing body awards but do not hold teaching qualifications. Thus, coaches may not be adequately prepared to teach PE in curriculum time. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the perceptions of a group of community-based football coaches working in primary schools for the impact of a Continuing Professional Development (CPD) programme on their ability to undertake ‘specified work’ to cover PE in primary schools. The programme focused on four areas identified as important to enable coaches to cover specified work: short- and medium-term planning, pedagogy, knowledge of the curriculum and reflection. Results showed that for the majority of coaches the CPD programme had made them more aware of the importance of these four areas and had helped to develop their knowledge and ability to put this into practice in covering planning, preparation and assessment time. However, further input is still required to develop coaches’ knowledge and understanding in all four areas, but especially their curriculum knowledge, as well as their ability to put these into practice consistently. These findings are discussed in relation to the implications of employing coaches to cover the teaching of PE in primary schools and, if employed, what CPD coaches need to develop the necessary knowledge, skill and understanding for covering specified work in schools

Planning for pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV transmission: challenges and opportunities

There are currently several ongoing or planned trials evaluating the efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as a preventative approach to reducing the transmission of HIV. PrEP may prove ineffective, demonstrate partial efficacy, or show high efficacy and have the potential to reduce HIV infection in a significant way. However, in addition to the trial results, it is important that issues related to delivery, implementation and further research are also discussed. As a part of the ongoing discussion, in June 2009, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation sponsored a Planning for PrEP conference with stakeholders to review expected trial results, outline responsible educational approaches, and develop potential delivery and implementation strategies. The conference reinforced the need for continued and sustained dialogue to identify where PrEP implementation may fit best within an integrated HIV prevention package. This paper identifies the key action points that emerged from the Planning for PrEP meeting

Language and social/emotional problems identified at a universal developmental assessment at 30 months

Non peer reviewedPublisher PD

Enhancing carbon sequestration in soil with coal combustion products: a technology for minimising carbon footprints in coal-power generation and agriculture

Coal-fired power generation and agriculture account for more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions, but the coal fly ash (CFA) produced in the former can be a resource for reducing emissions from agriculture to minimise environmental footprints in both industries. Our aim in this study was to test how acidic and alkaline CFA addition could minimise loss of C and N from acidic soil, with or without added manure. We determined composition and structural characteristics of acidic and alkaline CFA for their capacity to adsorb organic carbon, but observed poor adsorption because of low concentrations of cenospheres and unburnt carbon as the primary absorbents in the ash. Addition of CFA had no impact on the loss of carbon or nitrogen from unmanured soil in which concentrations of these nutrients were low. Loss of carbon from manured soil was reduced by 36% with alkaline ashes and by 3-fold with acidic ashes; while loss of N was 30–50% lower with acidic ashes, but 28% higher with alkaline ashes, compared with no ash treatment. The increases in C sparing with CFA addition were achieved not by direct C absorption but by restraining microbial population and respiration, and potentially emissions. Alkaline CFA increased soil pH and if used to substitute just 10% of lime for ameliorating soil acidity would reduce CO2 emission associated with the mining of the lime and its eventual dissolution in soil by ~ 2.66 Tg or 2.8% of Australia’s annual agricultural emissions. High concentrations of oxides of phosphorus, silicon, titanium and clay particles in acidic ashes, and oxides of cations in alkaline ashes, were associated with potential for promoting C storage and acidity amelioration in soil

A tale of two cities: A study of access to food, lessons for public health practice

Objectives: To map food access in the city of Preston in the north-west of England in order to determine access, availability and affordability of healthy food options. Design and methodology: The research design employed a number of distinct methods including: surveys of shops; interviews with local people and shopkeepers; a cost and availability survey of shops in two deprived areas of Preston —Deepdale and Ingol — the former with a majority South Asian population; and the use of geographical information systems to map access and availability. Results: • Preston had more fast food outlets (186) [not including restaurants who operate takeaways] than general groceries outlets (165). • There were more local shops selling affordable food in the area with the high South Asian population than in Ingol with its white working class population. There were clear gaps in provision and access in the white working class area (Ingol), with shops being more than 500 metres away from where people lived. Shops in this area stocked more familiar ‘British foods’ and less specialist or fresh produce. • Analysis of the availability of some healthy options such as brown bread, wholemeal pasta and brown rice showed that they were not widely available within shops in the two areas. • The price of the ‘White British’ basket in Ingol was £70.61 (cheapest price). For comparable goods in Deepdale, using the most expensive shopping basket, the price for the same basket was £42.47. • A South Asian family shopping at a major national supermarket outlet in Deepdale would pay £47.05. Using local shops they could pay between £38.59 and £44.28 by seeking out the best bargains in five shops (including some top-up items from a national supermarket). • At the time of the research a mother with two children, entitled to income support and child allowance, would have to spend 28—32 per cent of her income in local shops and 34 per cent in a supermarket to buy a basket of healthy goods. Conclusions: There is a need to engage proactively with the location of shops in urban areas, to ensure they offer a healthy range of options and are sited near to where people live. The number of fast food outlets needs to be controlled and the food they offer improved.This latter issue of the number of outlets and quality of fast food contributes to an overall obesogenic environment. Access to food is heavily dependent on having access to a car; local shopping and the quality of food on offer are important for key groups such as those on benefits, the elderly, single parents and others with limited access to a car. Proactive policy solutions may lie with the engagement of health agencies with the planning processes in local authorities to ensure that the food retail environment reflects a healthy choice. Local area agreements between health agencies and local authorities offer a way forward, in that they can take into account the expressed needs of local residents

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

Baseline values from the electrocardiograms of children and adolescents with ADHD

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An important issue in pediatric pharmacology is the determination of whether medications affect cardiac rhythm parameters, in particular the QT interval, which is a surrogate marker for the risk of adverse cardiac events and sudden death. To evaluate changes while on medication, it is useful to have a comparison of age appropriate values while off medication. The present meta-analysis provides baseline ECG values (i.e., off medication) from approximately 6000 children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Subjects were aged 6–18 years and participated in global trials within the atomoxetine registration program. Patients were administered a 12-lead ECG at study screening and cardiac rhythm parameters were recorded. Baseline QT intervals were corrected for heart rate using 3 different methods: Bazett's, Fridericia's, and a population data-derived formula.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ECG data were obtained from 5289 North American and 641 non-North American children and adolescents. Means and percentiles are presented for each ECG measure and QTc interval based on pubertal status as defined by age and sex. Prior treatment history with stimulants and racial origin (Caucasian) were each associated with significantly longer mean QTc values.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Baseline ECG and QTc data from almost 6000 children and adolescents presenting with ADHD are provided to contribute to the knowledge base regarding mean values for pediatric cardiac parameters. Consistent with other studies of QT interval in children and adolescents, Bazett correction formula appears to overestimate the prevalence of prolonged QTc in the pediatric population.</p

Population-Level Associations between Preschool Vulnerability and Grade-Four Basic Skills

Background: This is a predictive validity study examining the extent to which developmental vulnerability at kindergarten entry (as measured by the Early Development Instrument, EDI) is associated with children’s basic skills in 4th grade (as measured by the Foundation Skills Assessment, FSA). Methodology/Principal Findings: Relative risk analysis was performed on a large database linking individual-level EDI ratings to the scores the same children obtained on a provincial assessment of academic skills (FSA – Foundation Skills Assessment) four years later. We found that early vulnerability in kindergarten is associated with the basic skills that underlie populations of children’s academic achievement in reading, writing and math, indicating that the Early Development Instrument permits to predict achievement-related skills four years in advance. Conclusions/Significance: The EDI can be used to predict children’s educational trends at the population level and can help select early prevention and intervention programs targeting pre-school populations at minimum cost

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes