POSEIDON: An integrated system for analysis and forecast of hydrological, meteorological and surface marine fields in the Mediterranean area

The Mediterranean area is characterized by relevant hydrological, meteorological and marine processes developing at horizontal space-scales of the order of 1–100 km. In the recent past, several international programs have been addressed (ALPEX, POEM, MAP, etc.)to “resolving” the dynamics of such motions. Other projects (INTERREG-Flooding, MEDEX, etc.)are at present being developed with special emphasis on catastrophic events with major impact on human society that are, quite often, characterized in their manifestation by processes with the above-mentioned scales of motion. In the dynamical evolution of such events, however, equally important is the dynamics of interaction of the local (and sometimes very damaging)pro cesses with others developing at larger scales of motion. In fact, some of the most catastrophic events in the history of Mediterranean countries are associated with dynamical processes covering all the range of space-time scales from planetary to local. The Prevision Operational System for the mEditerranean basIn and the Defence of the lagOon of veNice (POSEIDON)is an integrated system for the analysis and forecast of hydrological, meteorological, oceanic fields specifically designed and set up in order to bridge the gap between global and local scales of motion, by modeling explicitly the above referred to dynamical processes in the range of scales from Mediterranean to local. The core of POSEIDON consists of a “cascade” of numerical models that, starting from global scale numerical analysisforecast, goes all the way to very local phenomena, like tidal propagation in Venice Lagoon. The large computational load imposed by such operational design requires necessarily parallel computing technology: the first model in the cascade is a parallelised version of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM)running on a Quadrics 128 processors computer (also known as QBOLAM). POSEIDON, developed in the context of a co-operation between the Italian Agency for New technologies, Energy and Environment (Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente, ENEA)and the Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services (Agenzia per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici, APAT), has become operational in 2000 and we are presently in the condition of drawing some preliminary conclusions about its performance. In the paper we describe the scientific concepts that were at the basis of the original planning, the structure of the system, its operational cycle and some preliminary scientific and technical evaluations after two years of experimentation

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs. This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S) project database

A database containing sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts from 11 operational centres is available to the research community and will help advance our understanding of the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range. Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range, a sub-seasonal prediction (S2S) research project has been established by the World Weather Research Program/World Climate Research Program. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database, containing sub-seasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3-weeks behind real-time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modelled in part on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium range forecasts (up to 15 days). The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability”. In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models underestimate significantly the amplitude of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database represents also an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multi-model combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over Vanuatu islands 2 to 3 weeks before tropical cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts

Med-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change >hotspots> of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere-land-biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability-impact-adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.This work is a contribution to the HyMeX program supported by grants MISTRALS and ANR-12-SENV-001 REMEMBER and to the CLIMRUN project (www.climrun.eu) funded under the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7).Peer Reviewe