Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence

For the purposes of this study, an interval is the elapsed time between two earthquakes in a designated region; the minimum magnitude for the earthquakes is prescribed. A record-breaking interval is one that is longer (or shorter) than preceding intervals; a starting time must be specified. We consider global earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 and show that the record-breaking intervals are well estimated by a Poissonian (random) theory. We also consider the aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and show that the record-breaking intervals are approximated by very different statistics. In both cases, we calculate the number of record-breaking intervals (<i>n</i><sub>rb</sub>) and the record-breaking interval durations Δ<i>t</i><sub>rb</sub> as a function of "natural time", the number of elapsed events. We also calculate the ratio of record-breaking long intervals to record-breaking short intervals as a function of time, <i>r(t)</i>, which is suggested to be sensitive to trends in noisy time series data. Our data indicate a possible precursory signal to large earthquakes that is consistent with accelerated moment release (AMR) theory

Breaking a one-dimensional chain: fracture in 1 + 1 dimensions

The breaking rate of an atomic chain stretched at zero temperature by a constant force can be calculated in a quasiclassical approximation by finding the localized solutions ("bounces") of the equations of classical dynamics in imaginary time. We show that this theory is related to the critical cracks of stressed solids, because the world lines of the atoms in the chain form a two-dimensional crystal, and the bounce is a crack configuration in (unstable) mechanical equilibrium. Thus the tunneling time, Action, and breaking rate in the limit of small forces are determined by the classical results of Griffith. For the limit of large forces we give an exact bounce solution that describes the quantum fracture and classical crack close to the limit of mechanical stability. This limit can be viewed as a critical phenomenon for which we establish a Levanyuk-Ginzburg criterion of weakness of fluctuations, and propose a scaling argument for the critical regime. The post-tunneling dynamics is understood by the analytic continuation of the bounce solutions to real time.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

An in situ assessment of local adaptation in a calcifying polychaete from a shallow CO 2 vent system

Ocean acidification (OA) is likely to exert selective pressure on natural populations. Our ability to predict which marine species will adapt to OA and what underlies this adaptive potential is of high conservation and resource management priority. Using a naturally low-pH vent site in the Mediterranean Sea (Castello Aragonese, Ischia) mirroring projected future OA conditions, we carried out a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation in two populations of the sessile, calcifying polychaete Simplaria sp. (Annelida, Serpulidae, Spirorbinae): one residing in low pH and the other from a nearby ambient (i.e. high) pH site. We measured a suite of fitness-related traits (i.e. survival, reproductive output, maturation, population growth) and tube growth rates in laboratory-bred F2 generation individuals from both populations reciprocally transplanted back into both ambient and low-pH in situ habitats. Both populations showed lower expression in all traits, but increased tube growth rates, when exposed to low-pH compared with high-pH conditions, regardless of their site of origin suggesting that local adaptation to low-pH conditions has not occurred. We also found comparable levels of plasticity in the two populations investigated, suggesting no influence of long-term exposure to low pH on the ability of populations to adjust their phenotype. Despite high variation in trait values among sites and the relatively extreme conditions at the low pH site (pH < 7.36), response trends were consistent across traits. Hence, our data suggest that, for Simplaria and possibly other calcifiers, neither local adaptations nor sufficient phenotypic plasticity levels appear to suffice in order to compensate for the negative impacts of OA on long-term survival. Our work also emphasizes the utility of field experiments in natural environments subjected to high level of pCO2 for elucidating the potential for adaptation to future scenarios of OA

Avalanches in Breakdown and Fracture Processes

We investigate the breakdown of disordered networks under the action of an increasing external---mechanical or electrical---force. We perform a mean-field analysis and estimate scaling exponents for the approach to the instability. By simulating two-dimensional models of electric breakdown and fracture we observe that the breakdown is preceded by avalanche events. The avalanches can be described by scaling laws, and the estimated values of the exponents are consistent with those found in mean-field theory. The breakdown point is characterized by a discontinuity in the macroscopic properties of the material, such as conductivity or elasticity, indicative of a first order transition. The scaling laws suggest an analogy with the behavior expected in spinodal nucleation.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. E, corrected typo in authors name, no changes to the pape

Fluctuations and correlations in sandpile models

We perform numerical simulations of the sandpile model for non-vanishing driving fields $h$ and dissipation rates $\epsilon$. Unlike simulations performed in the slow driving limit, the unique time scale present in our system allows us to measure unambiguously response and correlation functions. We discuss the dynamic scaling of the model and show that fluctuation-dissipation relations are not obeyed in this system.Comment: 5 pages, latex, 4 postscript figure

Fracture of disordered solids in compression as a critical phenomenon: I. Statistical mechanics formalism

This is the first of a series of three articles that treats fracture localization as a critical phenomenon. This first article establishes a statistical mechanics based on ensemble averages when fluctuations through time play no role in defining the ensemble. Ensembles are obtained by dividing a huge rock sample into many mesoscopic volumes. Because rocks are a disordered collection of grains in cohesive contact, we expect that once shear strain is applied and cracks begin to arrive in the system, the mesoscopic volumes will have a wide distribution of different crack states. These mesoscopic volumes are the members of our ensembles. We determine the probability of observing a mesoscopic volume to be in a given crack state by maximizing Shannon's measure of the emergent crack disorder subject to constraints coming from the energy-balance of brittle fracture. The laws of thermodynamics, the partition function, and the quantification of temperature are obtained for such cracking systems.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

Analytic approach to stochastic cellular automata: exponential and inverse power distributions out of Random Domino Automaton

Inspired by extremely simplified view of the earthquakes we propose the stochastic domino cellular automaton model exhibiting avalanches. From elementary combinatorial arguments we derive a set of nonlinear equations describing the automaton. Exact relations between the average parameters of the model are presented. Depending on imposed triggering, the model reproduces both exponential and inverse power statistics of clusters.Comment: improved, new material added; 9 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

Asthma in Inner-City Children at 5–11 Years of Age and Prenatal Exposure to Phthalates: The Columbia Center for Children’s Environmental Health Cohort

Background: Studies suggest that phthalate exposures may adversely affect child respiratory health. Objectives: We evaluated associations between asthma diagnosed in children between 5 and 11 years of age and prenatal exposures to butylbenzyl phthalate (BBzP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), and diethyl phthalate (DEP). Methods: Phthalate metabolites were measured in spot urine collected from 300 pregnant inner-city women. Children were examined by an allergist or pulmonologist based on the first parental report of wheeze, other respiratory symptoms, and/or use of asthma rescue/controller medication in the preceding 12 months on repeat follow-up questionnaires. Standardized diagnostic criteria were used to classify these children as either having or not having current asthma at the time of the physician examination. Children without any report of wheeze or the other asthma-like symptoms were classified as nonasthmatics at the time of the last negative questionnaire. Modified Poisson regression analyses were used to estimate relative risks (RR) controlling for specific gravity and potential confounders. Results: Of 300 children, 154 (51%) were examined by a physician because of reports of wheeze, other asthma-like symptoms, and/or medication use; 94 were diagnosed with current asthma and 60 without current asthma. The remaining 146 children were classified as nonasthmatic. Compared with levels in nonasthmatics, prenatal metabolites of BBzP and DnBP were associated with a history of asthma-like symptoms (p 70% higher among children with maternal prenatal BBzP and DnBP metabolite concentrations in the third versus the first tertile. Conclusion: Prenatal exposure to BBzP and DnBP may increase the risk of asthma among inner-city children. However, because this is the first such finding, results require replication. Citation: Whyatt RM, Perzanowski MS, Just AC, Rundle AG, Donohue KM, Calafat AM, Hoepner LA, Perera FP, Miller RL. 2014. Asthma in inner-city children at 5–11 years of age and prenatal exposure to phthalates: the Columbia Center for Children’s Environmental Health Cohort. Environ Health Perspect 122:1141–1146; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.130767

Prenatal phthalate and early childhood bisphenol A exposures increase asthma risk in inner-city children

To the Editor: We previously reported that inner-city childhood asthma was independently associated with measures of early childhood exposure to bisphenol A (BPA)1 and prenatal, but not childhood, exposures to di-n-butyl phthalate and butylbenzyl phthalate (BBzP). 2 Here, we evaluate whether these 2 classes of endocrine-disrupting chemicals interact to increase the risk of asthma. We evaluated 292 inner-city women and their children aged 5 to 11 years from the Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health birth cohort of pregnant women who delivered between 1998 and 2006. Enrollment, exclusion criteria, and a description of the cohort have been reported previously.3 Subjects were selected for the present study on the basis of the availability of (1) measurements of phthalates in spot urine collected from the mother during pregnancy (33.9 ± 3.1 weeks' gestation) and BPA in child urine at ages 3 (n = 237), 5 (259), and/or 7 (n = 161) years; (2) data on child asthma and wheeze-related outcomes; and (3) availability of model covariates. Demographic characteristics of Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health subjects are provided in Table E1 in this article's Online Repository at www.jacionline.org. All participants gave written informed consent

A Synthetic 21-cm Galactic Plane Survey of an SPH Galaxy Simulation

We have created synthetic neutral hydrogen (HI) Galactic Plane Survey data cubes covering 90 degrees < l < 180 degrees, using a model spiral galaxy from SPH simulations and the radiative transfer code TORUS. The density, temperature and other physical parameters are fed from the SPH simulation into TORUS, where the HI emissivity and opacity are calculated before the 21-cm line emission profile is determined. Our main focus is the observation of Outer Galaxy `Perseus Arm' HI, with a view to tracing atomic gas as it encounters shock motions as it enters a spiral arm interface, an early step in the formation of molecular clouds. The observation of HI self-absorption features at these shock sites (in both real observations and our synthetic data) allows us to investigate further the connection between cold atomic gas and the onset of molecular cloud formation.Comment: MNRAS accepted; 11 pages, 12 figure