Snowfall-albedo feedbacks could have led to deglaciation of Snowball Earth starting from mid-latitudes

Simple and complex climate models suggest a hard snowball – a completely ice-covered planet – is one of the steady-states of Earth’s climate. However, a seemingly insurmountable challenge to the hard-snowball hypothesis lies in the difficulty in explaining how the planet could have exited the glaciated state within a realistic range of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we use simulations with the Earth system model MPI-ESM to demonstrate that terminal deglaciation could have been triggered by high dust deposition fluxes. In these simulations, deglaciation is not initiated in the tropics, where a strong hydrological cycle constantly regenerates fresh snow at the surface, which limits the dust accumulation and snow aging, resulting in a high surface albedo. Instead, comparatively low precipitation rates in the mid-latitudes in combination with high maximum temperatures facilitate lower albedos and snow dynamics that – for extreme dust fluxes – trigger deglaciation even at present-day carbon dioxide level

All aboard! Earth system investigations with the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN v1.0

Models of the carbon cycle and climate on geologic (&gt;104-year) timescales have improved tremendously in the last 50 years due to parallel advances in our understanding of the Earth system and the increase in computing power to simulate its key processes. Still, balancing the Earth system's complexity with a model's computational expense is a primary challenge in model development. Simulations spanning hundreds of thousands of years or more generally require a reduction in the complexity of the climate system, omitting features such as radiative feedbacks, shifts in atmospheric circulation, and the expansion and decay of ice sheets, which can have profound effects on the long-term carbon cycle. Here, we present a model for climate and the long-term carbon cycle that captures many fundamental features of global climate while retaining the computational efficiency needed to simulate millions of years of time. The Carbon–H2O Coupled HydrOlOgical model with Terrestrial Runoff And INsolation, or CH2O-CHOO TRAIN, couples a one-dimensional (latitudinal) moist static energy balance model of climate with a model for rock weathering and the long-term carbon cycle. The CH2O-CHOO TRAIN is capable of running million-year-long simulations in about 30 min on a laptop PC. The key advantages of this framework are (1) it simulates fundamental climate forcings and feedbacks; (2) it accounts for geographic configuration; and (3) it is flexible, equipped to easily add features, change the strength of feedbacks, and prescribe conditions that are often hard-coded or emergent properties of more complex models, such as climate sensitivity and the strength of meridional heat transport. We show how climate variables governing temperature and the water cycle can impact long-term carbon cycling and climate, and we discuss how the magnitude and direction of this impact can depend on boundary conditions like continental geography. This paper outlines the model equations, presents a sensitivity analysis of the climate responses to varied climatic and carbon cycle perturbations, and discusses potential applications and next stops for the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN.</p

Alluvial record of an early Eocene hyperthermal within the Castissent Formation, the Pyrenees, Spain

The late Palaeocene to the middle Eocene (57.5 to 46.5 Ma) recorded a total of 39 hyperthermals – periods of rapid global warming documented by prominent negative carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) as well as peaks in iron content – have been recognized in marine cores. Documenting how the Earth system responded to rapid climatic shifts during hyperthermals provides fundamental information to constrain climatic models. However, while hyperthermals have been well documented in the marine sedimentary record, only a few have been recognized and described in continental deposits, thereby limiting our ability to understand the effect and record of global warming on terrestrial systems. Hyperthermals in the continental record could be a powerful correlation tool to help connect marine and continental deposits, addressing issues of environmental signal propagation from land to sea. In this study, we generate new stable carbon isotope data (δ13C values) across the well-exposed and time-constrained fluvial sedimentary succession of the early Eocene Castissent Formation in the south central Pyrenees (Spain). The δ13C values of pedogenic carbonate reveal – similarly to the global records – stepped CIEs, culminating in a minimum δ13C value that we correlate with the hyperthermal event “U” at ca. 50 Ma. This general trend towards more negative values is most probably linked to higher primary productivity leading to an overall higher respiration of soil organic matter during these climatic events. The relative enrichment in immobile elements (Zr, Ti, Al) and higher estimates of mean annual precipitation together with the occurrence of small iron oxide and iron hydroxide nodules during the CIEs suggest intensification of chemical weathering and/or longer exposure of soils in a highly seasonal climate. The results show that even relatively small-scale hyperthermals compared with their prominent counterparts, such as PETM, ETM2, and ETM3, can leave a recognizable signature in the terrestrial stratigraphic record, providing insights into the dynamics of the carbon cycle in continental environments during these events

Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m−2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds

The Green's function model intercomparison project (GFMIP) protocol

The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the “pattern effect.” To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere‐only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089

Neogene cooling driven by land surface reactivity rather than increased weathering fluxes

The long-term cooling, decline in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and the establishment of permanent polar ice sheets during the Neogene period1,2 have frequently been attributed to increased uplift and erosion of mountains and consequent increases in silicate weathering, which removes atmospheric carbon dioxide3,4. However, geological records of erosion rates are potentially subject to averaging biases5,6, and the magnitude of the increase in weathering fluxes—and even its existence—remain debated7–9. Moreover, an increase in weathering scaled to the proposed erosional increase would have removed nearly all carbon from the atmosphere10, which has led to suggestions of compensatory carbon fluxes11–13 in order to preserve mass balance in the carbon cycle. Alternatively, an increase in land surface reactivity—resulting from greater fresh-mineral surface area or an increase in the supply of reactive minerals—rather than an increase in the weathering flux, has been proposed to reconcile these disparate views8,9. Here we use a parsimonious carbon cycle model that tracks two weathering-sensitive isotopic tracers (stable 7Li/6Li and cosmogenic 10Be/9Be) to show that an increase in land surface reactivity is necessary to simultaneously decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide, increase seawater 7Li/6Li and retain constant seawater 10Be/9Be over the past 16 million years. We find that the global silicate weathering flux remained constant, even as the global silicate weathering intensity—the fraction of the total denudation flux that is derived from silicate weathering—decreased, sustained by an increase in erosion. Long-term cooling during the Neogene thus reflects a change in the partitioning of denudation into weathering and erosion. Variable partitioning of denudation and consequent changes in silicate weathering intensity reconcile marine isotope and erosion records with the need to maintain mass balance in the carbon cycle and without requiring increases in the silicate weathering flux