Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Groundwater ages, recharge conditions and hydrochemical evolution of a barrier island freshwater lens (Spiekeroog, Northern Germany)

Freshwater lenses below barrier islands are dynamic systems affected by changes in morphodynamic patterns, groundwater recharge and discharge. They are also vulnerable to pollution and overabstraction of groundwater. Basic knowledge on hydrogeological and hydrochemical processes of freshwater lenses is important to ensure a sustainable water management, especially when taking into account possible effects of climate change. This is the first study which gives a compact overview on the age distribution, recharge conditions and hydrochemical evolution of a barrier island freshwater lens in the southern North Sea (Spiekeroog Island, Eastfrisian Wadden Sea). Two ground- and surface water sampling campaigns were carried out in May and July 2011, supplemented by monthly precipitation sampling from July to October. 3H–3He ages, stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes and major ion concentrations show that the freshwater lens reaches a depth of 44 mbsl, where an aquitard constrains further expansion in vertical direction. Groundwater ages are increasing from 4.4 years in 12 mbsl up to >70 years at the freshwater– saltwater interface. Stable isotope signatures reflect average local precipitation signatures. An annual recharge rate of 300–400 mm was calculated with 3H–3He data. Freshwater is primarily of Na–Ca–Mg–HCO3– and Ca–Na–HCO3–Cl type, while lowly mineralized precipitation and saltwater are of Na–Cl types. A trend towards heavier stable isotope signatures and higher electric conductivities in the shallower, younger groundwater within the freshwater lens may indicate increasing atmospheric temperatures in the last 30 years

A database of whole-body action videos for the study of action, emotion, and untrustworthiness

We present a database of high-definition (HD) videos for the study of traits inferred from whole-body actions. Twenty-nine actors (19 female) were filmed performing different actions—walking, picking up a box, putting down a box, jumping, sitting down, and standing and acting—while conveying different traits, including four emotions (anger, fear, happiness, sadness), untrustworthiness, and neutral, where no specific trait was conveyed. For the actions conveying the four emotions and untrustworthiness, the actions were filmed multiple times, with the actor conveying the traits with different levels of intensity. In total, we made 2,783 action videos (in both two-dimensional and three-dimensional format), each lasting 7 s with a frame rate of 50 fps. All videos were filmed in a green-screen studio in order to isolate the action information from all contextual detail and to provide a flexible stimulus set for future use. In order to validate the traits conveyed by each action, we asked participants to rate each of the actions corresponding to the trait that the actor portrayed in the two-dimensional videos. To provide a useful database of stimuli of multiple actions conveying multiple traits, each video name contains information on the gender of the actor, the action executed, the trait conveyed, and the rating of its perceived intensity. All videos can be downloaded free at the following address: http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~neb506/databases.html. We discuss potential uses for the database in the analysis of the perception of whole-body actions

Challenges in QCD matter physics - The Compressed Baryonic Matter experiment at FAIR

Substantial experimental and theoretical efforts worldwide are devoted to explore the phase diagram of strongly interacting matter. At LHC and top RHIC energies, QCD matter is studied at very high temperatures and nearly vanishing net-baryon densities. There is evidence that a Quark-Gluon-Plasma (QGP) was created at experiments at RHIC and LHC. The transition from the QGP back to the hadron gas is found to be a smooth cross over. For larger net-baryon densities and lower temperatures, it is expected that the QCD phase diagram exhibits a rich structure, such as a first-order phase transition between hadronic and partonic matter which terminates in a critical point, or exotic phases like quarkyonic matter. The discovery of these landmarks would be a breakthrough in our understanding of the strong interaction and is therefore in the focus of various high-energy heavy-ion research programs. The Compressed Baryonic Matter (CBM) experiment at FAIR will play a unique role in the exploration of the QCD phase diagram in the region of high net-baryon densities, because it is designed to run at unprecedented interaction rates. High-rate operation is the key prerequisite for high-precision measurements of multi-differential observables and of rare diagnostic probes which are sensitive to the dense phase of the nuclear fireball. The goal of the CBM experiment at SIS100 (sqrt(s_NN) = 2.7 - 4.9 GeV) is to discover fundamental properties of QCD matter: the phase structure at large baryon-chemical potentials (mu_B > 500 MeV), effects of chiral symmetry, and the equation-of-state at high density as it is expected to occur in the core of neutron stars. In this article, we review the motivation for and the physics programme of CBM, including activities before the start of data taking in 2022, in the context of the worldwide efforts to explore high-density QCD matter.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures. Published in European Physical Journal

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Background: Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. Principal Findings: In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Conclusions: Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers