Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience

The Structure of a Complex of Bovine &-Thrombin and Recombinant Hirudin at 2.8-A Resolution

Crystals of the complex of bovine alpha-thrombin with recombinant hirudin variant 1 have space group C222(1) with cell constants a = 59.11, b = 102.62, and c = 143.26 A. The orientation and position of the thrombin component was determined by molecular replacement and the hirudin molecule was fit in 2 magnitude of Fo - magnitude of Fc electron density maps. The structure was refined by restrained least squares and simulated annealing to R = 0.161 at 2.8-A resolution. The binding of hirudin to thrombin is generally similar to that observed in the crystals of human thrombin-hirudin. Several differences in the interactions of the COOH-terminal polypeptide of hirudin, specifically of residues Asp-55h, Phe-56h, Glu-57h, and Glu-58h, and a few differences in the interactions of the hirudin core, specifically of residues Asp-5h, Ser-19h, and Asn-20h, with thrombin from human thrombin-hirudin suggest that there is some flexibility in the binding of these 2 molecules. Most of the residues in the 9 subsites that bind fibrinopeptide A7-16 to thrombin also interact with the NH2-terminal domain of hirudin. The S1 subsite is a notable exception in that only 1 of its 6 residues, namely Ser-214, interacts with hirudin. The only difference between human and bovine thrombins that appears to influence the binding of hirudin is the replacement of Lys-149E by an acidic glutamate in the bovine enzyme

The Structure of a Complex of Bovine &-Thrombin and Recombinant Hirudin at 2.8-A Resolution

Crystals of the complex of bovine alpha-thrombin with recombinant hirudin variant 1 have space group C222(1) with cell constants a = 59.11, b = 102.62, and c = 143.26 A. The orientation and position of the thrombin component was determined by molecular replacement and the hirudin molecule was fit in 2 magnitude of Fo - magnitude of Fc electron density maps. The structure was refined by restrained least squares and simulated annealing to R = 0.161 at 2.8-A resolution. The binding of hirudin to thrombin is generally similar to that observed in the crystals of human thrombin-hirudin. Several differences in the interactions of the COOH-terminal polypeptide of hirudin, specifically of residues Asp-55h, Phe-56h, Glu-57h, and Glu-58h, and a few differences in the interactions of the hirudin core, specifically of residues Asp-5h, Ser-19h, and Asn-20h, with thrombin from human thrombin-hirudin suggest that there is some flexibility in the binding of these 2 molecules. Most of the residues in the 9 subsites that bind fibrinopeptide A7-16 to thrombin also interact with the NH2-terminal domain of hirudin. The S1 subsite is a notable exception in that only 1 of its 6 residues, namely Ser-214, interacts with hirudin. The only difference between human and bovine thrombins that appears to influence the binding of hirudin is the replacement of Lys-149E by an acidic glutamate in the bovine enzyme

Process Simulation and Control Optimization of a Blast Furnace Using Classical Thermodynamics Combined to a Direct Search Algorithm

Several numerical approaches have been proposed in the literature to simulate the behavior of modern blast furnaces: finite volume methods, data-mining models, heat and mass balance models, and classical thermodynamic simulations. Despite this, there is actually no efficient method for evaluating quickly optimal operating parameters of a blast furnace as a function of the iron ore composition, which takes into account all potential chemical reactions that could occur in the system. In the current study, we propose a global simulation strategy of a blast furnace, the 5-unit process simulation. It is based on classical thermodynamic calculations coupled to a direct search algorithm to optimize process parameters. These parameters include the minimum required metallurgical coke consumption as well as the optimal blast chemical composition and the total charge that simultaneously satisfy the overall heat and mass balances of the system. Moreover, a Gibbs free energy function for metallurgical coke is parameterized in the current study and used to fine-tune the simulation of the blast furnace. Optimal operating conditions and predicted output stream properties calculated by the proposed thermodynamic simulation strategy are compared with reference data found in the literature and have proven the validity and high precision of this simulation

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come

Age-Related Differences in Socio-demographic and Behavioral Determinants of HIV Testing and Counseling in HPTN 043/NIMH Project Accept

Youth represent a large proportion of new HIV infections worldwide, yet their utilization of HIV testing and counseling (HTC) remains low. Using the post-intervention, cross-sectional, population-based household survey done in 2011 as part of HPTN 043/NIMH Project Accept, a cluster-randomized trial of community mobilization and mobile HTC in South Africa (Soweto and KwaZulu Natal), Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Thailand, we evaluated age-related differences among socio-demographic and behavioral determinants of HTC in study participants by study arm, site, and gender. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed using complete individual data from 13,755 participants with recent HIV testing (prior 12 months) as the outcome. Youth (18–24 years) was not predictive of recent HTC, except for high-risk youth with multiple concurrent partners, who were less likely (aOR 0.75; 95% CI 0.61–0.92) to have recently been tested than youth reporting a single partner. Importantly, the intervention was successful in reaching men with site specific success ranging from aOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.05–1.53) in South Africa to aOR 2.30 in Thailand (95% CI 1.85–2.84). Finally, across a diverse range of settings, higher education (aOR 1.67; 95% CI 1.42, 1.96), higher socio-economic status (aOR 1.21; 95% CI 1.08–1.36), and marriage (aOR 1.55; 95% CI 1.37–1.75) were all predictive of recent HTC, which did not significantly vary across study arm, site, gender or age category (18–24 vs. 25–32 years)