Backtesting AVaR and VaR with a simulated copula

The aim of this study is to verify whether the average value at risk (AVaR) can be a good alternative to the value at risk (VaR) for estimating portfolio losses, especially regarding tail events. To achieve this aim, we use a copula framework to estimate the dependence between the stock returns of a portfolio composed of 94 components of the S&P100 index to compute the AVaR and VaR and compare the results with respect to the Gaussian exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA). To compute the simulated returns, we employ the algorithm used by Biglova et al. (2014) in portfolio selection problems and then backtest the model with Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests. The results are coherent with the literature; in particular, the VaR computed both via the copula and via the EWMA seems to fail to provide an accurate risk measurement while the AVaR with the copula and EWMA appears to be more reliable

Object-Oriented Modeling and simulation of a TRIGA reactor plant with Dymola

This work presents the modeling and simulation of a TRIGA-Mark II pool-type reactor with Zirchonium-Hydryde and Uranium fuel immersed in light water, with Modelica object-oriented language, in Dymola simulation environment. The model encompasses the integrated plant system including the reactor pool and cooling circuits. The reactor pool plays a fundamental role in the system dynamics, through a thermal feedback effect on the reactor core neutronics. The pool model is tested against three experimental transients: simulation results are in good accordance with experimental data and provide useful information about the inertial effect of the water inventory on the reactor cooling

Timed rise from floor as a predictor of disease progression in Duchenne muscular dystrophy: An observational study

The role of timed items, and more specifically, of the time to rise from the floor, has been reported as an early prognostic factor for disease progression and loss of ambulation. The aim of our study was to investigate the possible effect of the time to rise from the floor test on the changes observed on the 6MWT over 12 months in a cohort of ambulant Duchenne boys.A total of 487 12-month data points were collected from 215 ambulant Duchenne boys. The age ranged between 5.0 and 20.0 years (mean 8.48 ±2.48 DS).The results of the time to rise from the floor at baseline ranged from 1.2 to 29.4 seconds in the boys who could perform the test. 49 patients were unable to perform the test at baseline and 87 at 12 month The 6MWT values ranged from 82 to 567 meters at baseline. 3 patients lost the ability to perform the 6mwt at 12 months. The correlation between time to rise from the floor and 6MWT at baseline was high (r = 0.6, p<0.01).Both time to rise from the floor and baseline 6MWT were relevant for predicting 6MWT changes in the group above the age of 7 years, with no interaction between the two measures, as the impact of time to rise from the floor on 6MWT change was similar in the patients below and above 350 m. Our results suggest that, time to rise from the floor can be considered an additional important prognostic factor of 12 month changes on the 6MWT and, more generally, of disease progression

Surgeons' perspectives on artificial intelligence to support clinical decision-making in trauma and emergency contexts: results from an international survey

Background Artificial intelligence (AI) is gaining traction in medicine and surgery. AI-based applications can offer tools to examine high-volume data to inform predictive analytics that supports complex decision-making processes. Time-sensitive trauma and emergency contexts are often challenging. The study aims to investigate trauma and emergency surgeons’ knowledge and perception of using AI-based tools in clinical decision-making processes. Methods An online survey grounded on literature regarding AI-enabled surgical decision-making aids was created by a multidisciplinary committee and endorsed by the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES). The survey was advertised to 917 WSES members through the society’s website and Twitter profile. Results 650 surgeons from 71 countries in five continents participated in the survey. Results depict the presence of technology enthusiasts and skeptics and surgeons' preference toward more classical decision-making aids like clinical guidelines, traditional training, and the support of their multidisciplinary colleagues. A lack of knowledge about several AI-related aspects emerges and is associated with mistrust. Discussion The trauma and emergency surgical community is divided into those who firmly believe in the potential of AI and those who do not understand or trust AI-enabled surgical decision-making aids. Academic societies and surgical training programs should promote a foundational, working knowledge of clinical AI

Strong reduction of the off-momentum halo in crystal assisted collimation of the SPS beam

A study of crystal assisted collimation has been continued at the CERN SPS for different energies of stored beams using 120 GeV/. c and 270 GeV/. c protons and Pb ions with 270 GeV/. c per charge. A bent silicon crystal used as a primary collimator deflected halo particles using channeling and directing them into the tungsten absorber. A strong correlation of the beam losses in the crystal and off-momentum halo intensity measured in the first high dispersion (HD) area downstream was observed. In channeling conditions, the beam loss rate induced by inelastic interactions of particles with nuclei is significantly reduced in comparison with the non-oriented crystal. A maximal reduction of beam losses in the crystal larger than 20 was observed with 270 GeV/. c protons. The off-momentum halo intensity measured in the HD area was also strongly reduced in channeling conditions. The reduction coefficient was larger than 7 for the case of Pb ions. A strong loss reduction was also detected in regions of the SPS ring far from the collimation area. It was shown by simulations that the miscut angle between the crystal surface and its crystallographic planes doubled the beam losses in the aligned crystal.peer-reviewe

Comparative results on collimation of the SPS beam of protons and Pb ions with bent crystals

New experiments on crystal assisted collimation have been carried out at the CERN SPS with stored beams of 120 GeV/. c protons and Pb ions. Bent silicon crystals of 2 mm long with about 170 μrad bend angle and a small residual torsion were used as primary collimators. In channeling conditions, the beam loss rate induced by inelastic interactions of particles with the crystal nuclei is minimal. The loss reduction was about 6 for protons and about 3 for Pb ions. Lower reduction value for Pb ions can be explained by their considerably larger ionization losses in the crystal. In one of the crystals, the measured fraction of the Pb ion beam halo deflected in channeling conditions was 74%, a value very close to that for protons. The intensity of the off-momentum halo leaking out from the collimation station was measured in the first high dispersion area downstream. The particle population in the shadow of the secondary collimator-absorber was considerably smaller in channeling conditions than for amorphous orientations of the crystal. The corresponding reduction was in the range of 2-5 for both protons and Pb ions.peer-reviewe

Observation of parametric X-rays produced by 400 GeV/c protons in bent crystals

Spectral maxima of parametric X-ray radiation (PXR) produced by 400 GeV/c protons in bent silicon crystals aligned with the beam have been observed in an experiment at the H8 external beam of the CERN SPS. The total yield of PXR photons was about 10-6 per proton. Agreement between calculations and the experimental data shows that the PXR kinematic theory is valid for bent crystals with sufficiently small curvature as used in the experiment. The intensity of PXR emitted from halo protons in a bent crystal used as a primary collimator in a circular accelerator may be considered as a possible tool to control its crystal structure, which is slowly damaged because of irradiation. The intensity distribution of PXR peaks depends on the crystal thickness intersected by the beam, which changes for different orientations of a crystal collimator. This dependence may be used to control crystal collimator alignment by analyzing PXR spectra produced by halo protons.peer-reviewe

Mass testing of the JUNO experiment 20-inch PMTs readout electronics

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a multi-purpose, large size, liquid scintillator experiment under construction in China. JUNO will perform leading measurements detecting neutrinos from different sources (reactor, terrestrial and astrophysical neutrinos) covering a wide energy range (from 200 keV to several GeV). This paper focuses on the design and development of a test protocol for the 20-inch PMT underwater readout electronics, performed in parallel to the mass production line. In a time period of about ten months, a total number of 6950 electronic boards were tested with an acceptance yield of 99.1%