Probing the growth of supermassive black holes at z>6 with LOFAR

HII regions surrounding supermassive black holes (BHs) in an otherwise still neutral intergalactic medium (IGM) are likely to be the most easily detectable sources by future 21cm experiments like LOFAR. We have made predictions for the size distribution of such HII regions for several physically motivated models for BH growth at high redshift and compared this to the expected LOFAR sensitivity to these sources. The number of potentially detectable HII regions does not only depend on the ionisation state of the intergalactic medium and the decoupling of the spin temperature of the neutral hydrogen from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature, but is also strongly sensitive to the rate of growth of BHs at high redshift. If the supermassive BHs at redshift 6 were built up via continuous Eddington-limited accretion from low mass seed BHs at high redshift, then LOFAR is not expected to detect isolated QSO HII regions at redshifts much larger than 6, and only if the IGM is still significantly neutral. If the high-redshift growth of BHs starts with massive seed BHs and is driven by short-lived accretion events following the merging of BH hosting galaxies then the detection of HII regions surrounding supermassive BHs may extend to redshifts as large as 8-9 but is still very sensitive to the redshift to which the IGM remains significantly neutral. The most optimistic predictions are for a model where the supermassive BHs at z>6 have grown slowly. HII regions around supermassive BHs may then be detected to significantly larger redshifts.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Realistic Event Rates for Detection of Supermassive Black Hole Coalescence by LISA

The gravitational waves generated during supermassive black hole (SMBH) coalescence are prime candidates for detection by the satellite LISA. We use the extended Press-Schechter formalism combined with empirically motivated estimates for the SMBH--dark matter halo mass relation and SMBH occupation fraction to estimate the maximum coalescence rate for major SMBH mergers. Assuming efficient binary coalescence, and guided by the lowest nuclear black hole mass inferred in local galactic bulges and nearby low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (10^5 Msun) we predict approximately 15 detections per year at a signal to noise greater than five, in each of the inspiral and ringdown phases. Rare coalescences between SMBHs having masses in excess of 10^7 Msun will be more readily detected via gravitational waves from the ringdown phase.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Detecting quasars at very high redshift with next generation X-ray telescopes

The next generation of X-ray telescopes have the potential to detect faint quasars at very high redshift and probe the early growth of massive black holes (BHs). We present modelling of the evolution of the optical and X-ray AGN luminosity function at 2 < z < 6 based on a CDM merger-driven model for the triggering of nuclear activity combined with a variety of fading laws. We extrapolate the merger-driven models to z > 6 for a range of BH growth scenarios. We predict significant numbers of sources at z ~ 6 with fluxes just an order of magnitude below the current detection limits and thus detectable with XEUS and Constellation-X, relatively independently of the fading law chosen. The predicted number of sources at even higher redshift depends sensitively on the early growth history of BHs. For passive evolution models in which BHs grow constantly at their Eddington limit, detectable BHs may be rare beyond z ~ 10 even with Generation-X. However, in the more probable scenario that BH growth at z > 6 can be described by passive evolution with a small duty cycle, or by our merger driven accretion model, then we predict that XEUS and Generation-X will detect significant numbers of black holes out to z ~ 10 and perhaps beyond.Comment: 18 pages, 11 Figures. Version accepted to MNRAS; extra data plotted, XEUS and Con-X sensitivities corrected and predictions amended accordingl

Testing general relativity and probing the merger history of massive black holes with LISA

Observations of binary inspirals with LISA will allow us to place bounds on alternative theories of gravity and to study the merger history of massive black holes (MBH). These possibilities rely on LISA's parameter estimation accuracy. We update previous studies of parameter estimation including non-precessional spin effects. We work both in Einstein's theory and in alternative theories of gravity of the scalar-tensor and massive-graviton types. Inclusion of non-precessional spin terms in MBH binaries has little effect on the angular resolution or on distance determination accuracy, but it degrades the estimation of the chirp mass and reduced mass by between one and two orders of magnitude. The bound on the coupling parameter of scalar-tensor gravity is significantly reduced by the presence of spin couplings, while the reduction in the graviton-mass bound is milder. LISA will measure the luminosity distance of MBHs to better than ~10% out to z~4 for a (10^6+10^6) Msun binary, and out to z~2 for a (10^7+10^7) Msun binary. The chirp mass of a MBH binary can always be determined with excellent accuracy. Ignoring spin effects, the reduced mass can be measured within ~1% out to z=10 and beyond for a (10^6+10^6) Msun binary, but only out to z~2 for a (10^7+10^7) Msun binary. Present-day MBH coalescence rate calculations indicate that most detectable events should originate at z~2-6: at these redshifts LISA can be used to measure the two black hole masses and their luminosity distance with sufficient accuracy to probe the merger history of MBHs. If the low-frequency LISA noise can only be trusted down to 10^-4 Hz, parameter estimation for MBHs (and LISA's ability to perform reliable cosmological observations) will be significantly degraded.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures. Proceedings of GWDAW 9. Matches version accepted in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Blazars in the early Universe

We investigate the relative occurrence of radio--loud and radio-quiet quasars in the first billion years of the Universe, powered by black holes heavier than one billion solar masses. We consider the sample of high-redshfit blazars detected in the hard X-ray band in the 3-years all sky survey performed by the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) onboard the Swift satellite. All the black holes powering these blazars exceed a billion solar mass, with accretion luminosities close to the Eddington limit. For each blazar pointing at us, there must be hundreds of similar sources (having black holes of similar masses) pointing elsewhere. This puts constraints on the density of billion solar masses black holes at high redshift (z>4), and on the relative importance of (jetted) radio-loud vs radio-quiet sources. We compare the expected number of high redshift radio--loud sources with the high luminosity radio-loud quasars detected in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), finding agreement up to z~3, but a serious deficit at z>3 of SDSS radio-loud quasars with respect to the expectations. We suggest that the most likely explanations for this disagreement are: i) the ratio of blazar to misaligned radio-sources decreases by an order of magnitude above z=3, possibly as a result of a decrease of the average bulk Lorentz factor; ii) the SDSS misses a large fraction of radio-loud sources at high redshifts, iii) the SDSS misses both radio-loud and radio-quiet quasars at high redshift, possibly because of obscuration or because of collimation of the optical-UV continuum in systems accreting near Eddington. These explanations imply very different number density of heavy black holes at high redshifts, that we discuss in the framework of the current ideas about the relations of dark matter haloes at high redshifts and the black hole they host.Comment: MNRAS, in pres

Heating of the Intergalactic Medium by Primordial Miniquasars

A simple analytical model is used to calculate the X-ray heating of the IGM for a range of black hole masses. This process is efficient enough to decouple the spin temperature of the intergalactic medium from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and produce a differential brightness temperature of the order of $\sim 5-20 \mathrm{mK}$ out to distances as large as a few co-moving Mpc, depending on the redshift, black hole mass and lifetime. We explore the influence of two types of black holes, those with and without ionising UV radiation. The results of the simple analytical model are compared to those of a full spherically symmetric radiative transfer code. Two simple scenarios are proposed for the formation and evolution of black hole mass density in the Universe. The first considers an intermediate mass black hole that form as an end-product of Population III stars, whereas the second considers super-massive black holes that form directly through the collapse of massive halos with low spin parameter. These scenarios are shown not to violate any of the observational constraints, yet produce enough X-ray photons to decouple the spin-temperature from that of the CMB. This is an important issue for future high redshift 21 cm observations.Comment: Replaced with a revised version to match the MNRAS accepted versio

Time-evolution of ionization and heating around first stars and miniquasars

A one dimensional radiative transfer code is developed to track the ionization and heating pattern around the first miniquasars and Population III stars. The code follows the evolution of the ionization of the species of hydrogen and helium and the intergalactic medium temperature profiles as a function of redshift. The radiative transfer calculations show that the ionization signature of the first miniquasars and stars is very similar yet the heating pattern around the two is very different. Furthermore, the first massive miniquasars (~>10^5 M_{sun}) do produce large ionized bubbles around them, which can potentially be imaged directly using future radio telescopes. It is also shown that the ionized bubbles not only stay ionized for considerable time after the switching off of the source, but continue to expand for a short while due to secondary collisions prompted by the X-ray part of their spectra. Varying spectral shapes also produced sizable variations in ionized fraction and temperature profile. We also compare the radiative transfer results with the analytical approximation usually adopted for heating by miniquasars and find that, because of the inadequate treatment of the He species, the analytical approach leads to an underestimation of the temperature in the outer radii by a factor ~5. Population III stars - with masses in the range of 10 - 1000 M_{sun} and modelled as blackbodies at a temperature of 50000 K - are found to be efficient in ionizing their surroundings. Observational effects on the 21 cm brightness temperature, the thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Ze'ldovich effects, are also studied in the context of the upcoming radio and microwave telescopes like LOFAR and SPT.Comment: 19 pages, 24 figures, accepted to be published in MNRAS Typos in formula 1,2 and 21 fixed. Figure 11 caption and Figure 13 change

Gravitational recoil: effects on massive black hole occupation fraction over cosmic time

We assess the influence of massive black hole (MBH) ejections from galaxy centres, due to the gravitational radiation recoil, along the cosmic merger history of the MBH population. We discuss the 'danger' of the recoil for MBHs as a function of different MBH spin/orbit configurations and of the host halo cosmic bias, and on how that reflects on the 'occupation fraction' of MBHs. We assess ejection probabilities for mergers occurring in a gas-poor environment, where the MBH binary coalescence is driven by stellar dynamical processes, and the spin/orbit configuration is expected to be isotropically distributed. We contrast this case with the 'aligned' case. The latter is the most realistic situation for 'wet', gas-rich mergers, which are the expectation for high-redshift galaxies. We find that if all halos at z>5-7 host a MBH, the probability of the Milky Way (or similar size galaxy) to host a MBH today is less than 50%, unless MBHs form continuously in galaxies. The 'occupation fraction' of MBHs, intimately related to halo bias and MBH formation efficiency, plays a crucial role in increasing the retention fraction. Small halos, with shallow potential wells and low escape velocities, have a high ejection probability, but the MBH merger rate is very low along their galaxy formation merger hierarchy: MBH formation processes are likely inefficient in such shallow potential wells. Recoils can decrease the overall frequency of MBHs in small galaxies to ~60%, while they have little effect on the frequency of MBHs in large galaxies (at most a 20% effect).Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Non-Gravitational Contributions to the Clustering of Ly-alpha Selected Galaxies: Implications for Cosmological Surveys

We show that the dependence of Ly-alpha absorption on environment leads to significant non-gravitational features in the redshift space power-spectrum of Ly-alpha selected galaxies. We derive a physically motivated fitting formula that can be included in clustering analyses, and use this to discuss the predicted features in the Ly-alpha galaxy power-spectrum based on detailed models in which Ly-alpha absorption is influenced by gas infall and/or by strong galactic outflows. We show that power-spectrum measurements could be used to study the astrophysics of the galaxy-IGM connection, and to measure the properties of outflows from star-forming galaxies. Applying the modified redshift space power-spectrum to a Ly-alpha survey with parameters corresponding to the planned Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX), we find that the dependence of observed Ly-alpha flux on velocity gradient and ionising background may compromise the ability of Ly-alpha selected galaxy redshift surveys to constrain cosmology using information from the full power-spectrum. This is because the effects of fluctuating ionizing background and velocity gradients effect the shape of the observed power-spectrum in ways that are similar to the shape of the primordial power-spectrum and redshift space distortions respectively. We use the Alcock-Paczynski test to show that without prior knowledge of the details of Ly-alpha absorption in the IGM, the precision of line-of-sight and transverse distance measurements for HETDEX will be ~1.3-1.7%, decreased by a factor of ~1.5-2 relative to the best case precision of ~0.8% available in a traditional galaxy redshift survey. We specify the precision with which modelling of Ly-alpha radiative transfer must be understood in order for HETDEX to achieve distance measurements that are better than 1%.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures. Submitted to MNRA

Fisher Matrix Preloaded -- Fisher4Cast

The Fisher Matrix is the backbone of modern cosmological forecasting. We describe the Fisher4Cast software: a general-purpose, easy-to-use, Fisher Matrix framework. It is open source, rigorously designed and tested and includes a Graphical User Interface (GUI) with automated LATEX file creation capability and point-and-click Fisher ellipse generation. Fisher4Cast was designed for ease of extension and, although written in Matlab, is easily portable to open-source alternatives such as Octave and Scilab. Here we use Fisher4Cast to present new 3-D and 4-D visualisations of the forecasting landscape and to investigate the effects of growth and curvature on future cosmological surveys. Early releases have been available at http://www.cosmology.org.za since May 2008 with 750 downloads in the first year. Version 2.2 is made public with this paper and includes a Quick Start guide and the code used to produce the figures in this paper, in the hope that it will be useful to the cosmology and wider scientific communities.Comment: 30 Pages, 15 figures. Minor revisions to match published version, with some additional functionality described to match the current version (2.2) of the code. Software available at http://www.cosmology.org.za. Usage, structure and flow of the software, as well as tests performed are described in the accompanying Users' Manua