Gauging the threat: the first population estimate for white sharks in South Africa using photo identification and automated software

South Africa is reputed to host the world’s largest remaining population of white sharks, yet no studies have accurately determined a population estimate based on mark-recapture of live individuals. We used dorsal fin photographs (fin IDs) to identify white sharks in Gansbaai, South Africa, from January 2007 - December 2011. We used the computer programme DARWIN to catalogue and match fin IDs of individuals; this is the first study to successfully use the software for white shark identification. The programme performed well despite a number of individual fins showing drastic changes in dorsal fin shape over time. Of 1682 fin IDs used, 532 unique individuals were identified. We estimated population size using the open-population POPAN parameterisation in Program MARK, which estimated the superpopulation size at 908 (95% confidence interval 808-1008). This estimated population size is considerably larger than those described at other aggregation areas of the species and is comparable to a previous South African population estimate conducted 16 years prior. Our assessment suggests the species has not made a marked recovery since being nationally protected in 1991. As such, additional international protection may prove vital for the long-term conservation of this threatened species

Habitat-based density models of pack-ice seal distribution in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Climate variability and changes in sea ice dynamics have caused several ice-obligate or krill-dependent populations of marine predators to decline, eliciting concern about their demographic persistence and the indirect ecological consequences that predator depletions may have on marine ecosystems. Pack-ice seals are dominant ice-obligate predators in the Antarctic marine ecosystem, but there is considerable uncertainty about their abundance and population trends. We modelled the density and distribution of pack-ice seals as a function of environmental covariates in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Our density surface modelling approach used data from aerial surveys of pack-ice seals collected in the 2013/14 austral summer. Crabeater seals Lobo don carcinophaga, the most numerous pack-ice seal we observed, occurred at the highest densities in areas with extensive sea ice near the continental shelf break, but were almost absent in areas of similar sea ice concentration in the southern extent of the Weddell Sea. The highest densities of Weddell seals Leptonychotes weddelli, which were less abundant than crabeater seals within the pack-ice habitat, were predicted to occur over the continental shelf, near the shelf break. The distribution of both seal species broadly corresponded with the distribution and relative abundance of their main prey (Antarctic krill Euphausia superba and Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarctica) obtained from concurrent ecosystem surveys. Ross seals Ommatophoca rossii and leopard seals Hydrurga leptonyx were not detected at all and are apparently rare within the southern Weddell Sea. These results can contribute to biodiversity assessments in the context of marine protected area planning in this region of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic pack ice seals and oceanographic features at the Filchner Outflow System, southern Weddell Sea

The Filchner Outflow System (FOS) in the southern Weddell Sea is one of the most important areas for deep water formation. Here the outflow of Ice Shelf Water (ISW) of the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf interacts with Warm Deep Water (WDW) of the Weddell Gyre circulation, resulting in Weddell Sea Deep and Bottom Water production (WSDW, WSBW). The interaction around the sill of the Filchner Trough is thought to result in a physical oceanography "hotspot" that may also aggregate primary and secondary producers, leading to increased abundance of top predators. However, data on top predator abundance for the FOS are scarce. Two aerial surveys over ice-covered sea were carried out to estimate density gradients and the regional abundance of pack ice seals in the FOS. A digital imaging survey with fixed wing research aircraft Polar 6 in November 2013 preceded a helicopter survey from aboard RV Polarstern during January 2014. The Polar 6 survey comprised 11 transects summing to a survey effort of 1,148.44 km. 265 seals were counted on transect lines with a higher encounter rate on transects located further to the west. The helicopter survey allowed seal species to be identified. Twenty-five transects (1,367.61 km) were flown in the FOS region and another six transects (425.54 km) further south within the Filchner Trough. Only two seal species, the crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga) (n = 754) and the Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) (n = 217), were observed. Distance sampling analysis suggested that the density of seals differed strongly between the two survey regions, with very few seals encountered on transects located in the more southerly Filchner Trough region. A longitudinal density gradient increasing from east to west within the FOS region during January 2014 supported the results obtained from the Polar 6 survey, but failed to support the idea of a top predator hotspot at the sill of the Filchner Trough at least for seals

The effect of prey abundance and fisheries on the survival, reproduction, and social structure of killer whales (Orcinus orca) at subantarctic Marion Island

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS : Rowan Jordaan: Conceptualization (supporting); data curation (lead); formal analysis (lead); writing –original draft (lead). Chris Oosthuizen: Formal analysis (supporting); methodology (supporting); supervision (equal); visualization (equal); writing –original draft (supporting); writing –review and editing (supporting). Ryan Reisinger: Conceptualization (equal); supervision (equal); visualization (equal); writing –original draft (supporting); writing –review and editing (supporting). Nico de Bruyn: Conceptualization (equal); funding acquisition (lead); project administration (lead); resources (lead); supervision (equal); writing –review and editing (supporting).DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : Data used for this manuscript can be found through the following DOI: https://DOI.org/10.5061/dryad.905qf ttr3.Most marine apex predators are keystone species that fundamentally influence their ecosystems through cascading top-down processes. Reductions in worldwide predator abundances, attributed to environmental-and anthropogenic-induced changes to prey availability and negative interactions with fisheries, can have far-reaching ecosystem impacts. We tested whether the survival of killer whales (Orcinus orca) observed at Marion Island in the Southern Indian Ocean correlated with social structure and prey variables (direct measures of prey abundance, Patagonian toothfish fishery effort, and environmental proxies) using multistate models of capture–recapture data spanning 12 years (2006–2018). We also tested the effect of these same variables on killer whale social structure and reproduction measured over the same period. Indices of social structure had the strongest correlation with survival, with higher sociality associated with increased survival probability. Survival was also positively correlated with Patagonian toothfish fishing effort during the previous year, suggesting that fishery-linked resource availability is an important determinant of survival. No correlation between survival and environmental proxies of prey abundance was found. At-island prey availability influenced the social structure of Marion Island killer whales, but none of the variables explained variability in reproduction. Future increases in legal fishing activity may benefit this population of killer whales through the artificial provisioning of resources they provide.National Research Foundation.http://www.ecolevol.org/am2024Mammal Research InstituteZoology and EntomologySDG-14:Life below wate

The retrospective analysis of Antarctic tracking data project

The Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) is a Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research project led jointly by the Expert Groups on Birds and Marine Mammals and Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics, and endorsed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. RAATD consolidated tracking data for multiple species of Antarctic meso- and top-predators to identify Areas of Ecological Significance. These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations

Perfect weddings abroad

Approximately 16% of UK couples are currently married abroad. However, academic or practitioner focused research that explores the complex nature of a couple’s buying preferences or the development of innovative marketing strategies by businesses operating within the weddings abroad niche sector, is almost non-existent. This exploratory paper examines the role and relevance of marketing within the weddings abroad sector. The complex nature of customer needs in this high emotional and involvement experience, are identified and explored. A case study of Perfect Weddings Abroad Ltd highlights distinctive features and characteristics. Social networking and the use of home-workers, with a focus on reassurance and handholding are important tools used to develop relationships with customers. These tools and techniques help increase the tangibility of a weddings abroad package. Clusters of complementary services that are synergistic and provide sources of competitive advantage are identified and an agenda for future research is developed

Marine ecosystem assessment for the Southern Ocean: birds and marine mammals in a changing climate

The massive number of seabirds (penguins and procellariiformes) and marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) – referred to here as top predators – is one of the most iconic components of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. They play an important role as highly mobile consumers, structuring and connecting pelagic marine food webs and are widely studied relative to other taxa. Many birds and mammals establish dense breeding colonies or use haul-out sites, making them relatively easy to study. Cetaceans, however, spend their lives at sea and thus aspects of their life cycle are more complicated to monitor and study. Nevertheless, they all feed at sea and their reproductive success depends on the food availability in the marine environment, hence they are considered useful indicators of the state of the marine resources. In general, top predators have large body sizes that allow for instrumentation with miniature data-recording or transmitting devices to monitor their activities at sea. Development of scientific techniques to study reproduction and foraging of top predators has led to substantial scientific literature on their population trends, key biological parameters, migratory patterns, foraging and feeding ecology, and linkages with atmospheric or oceanographic dynamics, for a number of species and regions. We briefly summarize the vast literature on Southern Ocean top predators, focusing on the most recent syntheses. We also provide an overview on the key current and emerging pressures faced by these animals as a result of both natural and human causes. We recognize the overarching impact that environmental changes driven by climate change have on the ecology of these species. We also evaluate direct and indirect interactions between marine predators and other factors such as disease, pollution, land disturbance and the increasing pressure from global fisheries in the Southern Ocean. Where possible we consider the data availability for assessing the status and trends for each of these components, their capacity for resilience or recovery, effectiveness of management responses, risk likelihood of key impacts and future outlook

Antarctic ecosystems in transition – life between stresses and opportunities

Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of 'scientific understanding' revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub-messages, indicating that process-oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services

Hunt for new phenomena using large jet multiplicities and missing transverse momentum with ATLAS in 4.7 fb−1 of s√=7TeV proton-proton collisions

Results are presented of a search for new particles decaying to large numbers of jets in association with missing transverse momentum, using 4.7 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√=7TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider in 2011. The event selection requires missing transverse momentum, no isolated electrons or muons, and from ≥6 to ≥9 jets. No evidence is found for physics beyond the Standard Model. The results are interpreted in the context of a MSUGRA/CMSSM supersymmetric model, where, for large universal scalar mass m 0, gluino masses smaller than 840 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level, extending previously published limits. Within a simplified model containing only a gluino octet and a neutralino, gluino masses smaller than 870 GeV are similarly excluded for neutralino masses below 100 GeV

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN