A Landscape and Climate Data Logistic Model of Tsetse Distribution in Kenya

, biologically transmitted by the tsetse fly in Africa, are a major cause of illness resulting in both high morbidity and mortality among humans, cattle, wild ungulates, and other species. However, tsetse fly distributions change rapidly due to environmental changes, and fine-scale distribution maps are few. Due to data scarcity, most presence/absence estimates in Kenya prior to 2000 are a combination of local reports, entomological knowledge, and topographic information. The availability of tsetse fly abundance data are limited, or at least have not been collected into aggregate, publicly available national datasets. Despite this limitation, other avenues exist for estimating tsetse distributions including remotely sensed data, climate information, and statistical tools.Here we present a logistic regression model of tsetse abundance. The goal of this model is to estimate the distribution of tsetse fly in Kenya in the year 2000, and to provide a method by which to anticipate their future distribution. Multiple predictor variables were tested for significance and for predictive power; ultimately, a parsimonious subset of variables was identified and used to construct the regression model with the 1973 tsetse map. These data were validated against year 2000 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates. Mapcurves Goodness-Of-Fit scores were used to evaluate the modeled fly distribution against FAO estimates and against 1973 presence/absence data, each driven by appropriate climate data.Logistic regression can be effectively used to produce a model that projects fly abundance under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. This model identifies potential areas for tsetse abandonment and expansion

Dual Testing Algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index Assays Performs Best in Identifying Recent HIV Infection in a Sample of Rwandan Sex Workers

To assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda. Eight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to estimate assay false-recent rates (FRR). STARHS-based HIV incidence was estimated using the McWalter/Welte formula, and adjusted with locally derived FRR and CD4 results. HIV incidence and local assay window periods were estimated from a prospective cohort of FSW. At baseline, 190 HIV-positive women were BED and Ax-AI tested; 23 were classified as recent infection (RI). Assay FRR with 95% confidence intervals were: 3.6% (1.2-8.1) (BED); 10.6% (6.1-17.0) (Ax-AI); and 2.1% (0.4-6.1) (BED/Ax-AI combined). After FRR-adjustment, incidence estimates by BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI were: 5.5/100 person-years (95% CI 2.2-8.7); 7.7 (3.2-12.3); and 4.4 (1.4-7.3). After CD4-adjustment, BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI incidence estimates were: 5.6 (2.6-8.6); 9.7 (5.0-14.4); and 4.7 (2.0-7.5). HIV incidence rates in the first and second 6 months of the cohort were 4.6 (1.6-7.7) and 2.2 (0.1-4.4). Adjusted incidence estimates by BED/Ax-AI combined were similar to incidence in the first 6 months of the cohort. Furthermore, false-recent rate on the combined BED/Ax-AI algorithm was low and substantially lower than for either assay alone. Improved assay specificity with time since seroconversion suggests that specificity would be higher in population-based testing where more individuals have long-term infectio

Does the history of food energy units suggest a solution to "Calorie confusion"?

The Calorie (kcal) of present U.S. food labels is similar to the original French definition of 1825. The original published source (now available on the internet) defined the Calorie as the quantity of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kg of water from 0 to 1°C. The Calorie originated in studies concerning fuel efficiency for the steam engine and had entered dictionaries by 1840. It was the only energy unit in English dictionaries available to W.O. Atwater in 1887 for his popular articles on food and tables of food composition. Therefore, the Calorie became the preferred unit of potential energy in nutrition science and dietetics, but was displaced when the joule, g-calorie and kcal were introduced. This article will explain the context in which Nicolas Clément-Desormes defined the original Calorie and the depth of his collaboration with Sadi Carnot. It will review the history of other energy units and show how the original Calorie was usurped during the period of international standardization. As a result, no form of the Calorie is recognized as an SI unit. It is untenable to continue to use the same word for different thermal units (g-calorie and kg-calorie) and to use different words for the same unit (Calorie and kcal). The only valid use of the Calorie is in common speech and public nutrition education. To avoid ongoing confusion, scientists should complete the transition to the joule and cease using kcal in any context

Constraints on Nucleon Decay via "Invisible" Modes from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

Data from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory have been used to constrain the lifetime for nucleon decay to ``invisible'' modes, such as n -> 3 nu. The analysis was based on a search for gamma-rays from the de-excitation of the residual nucleus that would result from the disappearance of either a proton or neutron from O16. A limit of tau_inv > 2 x 10^{29} years is obtained at 90% confidence for either neutron or proton decay modes. This is about an order of magnitude more stringent than previous constraints on invisible proton decay modes and 400 times more stringent than similar neutron modes.Comment: Update includes missing efficiency factor (limits change by factor of 2) Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods

CITATION: Kim, A. A. et al. 2011. Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda : a systematic comparison of multiple methods. PLos ONE, 6(3): e17535, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0017535.The original publication is available at http://journals.plos.org/plosoneBackground: Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1) Epidemic Projections Package (EPP) and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC) and national population-based surveys (NPS) in Kenya (2003, 2007) and Uganda (2004/2005); 2) a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR) for the assay; (4) community cohorts in Uganda; (5) prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI) 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005) and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007). Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005) and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007). Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya. Conclusions/Significance: Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay's FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0017535Publisher's versio

Assessment of BED HIV-1 Incidence Assay in Seroconverter Cohorts: Effect of Individuals with Long-Term Infection and Importance of Stable Incidence

BACKGROUND: Performance of the BED assay in estimating HIV-1 incidence has previously been evaluated by using longitudinal specimens from persons with incident HIV infections, but questions remain about its accuracy. We sought to assess its performance in three longitudinal cohorts from Thailand where HIV-1 CRF01_AE and subtype B' dominate the epidemic. DESIGN: BED testing was conducted in two longitudinal cohorts with only incident infections (a military conscript cohort and an injection drug user cohort) and in one longitudinal cohort (an HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial cohort) that also included long-term infections. METHODS: Incidence estimates were generated conventionally (based on the number of annual serocoversions) and by using BED test results in the three cohorts. Adjusted incidence was calculated where appropriate. RESULTS: For each longitudinal cohort the BED incidence estimates and the conventional incidence estimates were similar when only newly infected persons were tested, whether infected with CRF01_AE or subtype B'. When the analysis included persons with long-term infections (to mimic a true cross-sectional cohort), BED incidence estimates were higher, although not significantly, than the conventional incidence estimates. After adjustment, the BED incidence estimates were closer to the conventional incidence estimates. When the conventional incidence varied over time, as in the early phase of the injection drug user cohort, the difference between the two estimates increased, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the performance of incidence assays requires the inclusion of a substantial number of cohort-derived specimens from individuals with long-term HIV infection and, ideally, the use of cohorts in which incidence remained stable. Appropriate adjustments of the BED incidence estimates generate estimates similar to those generated conventionally

Estimation of HIV-1 incidence among five focal populations in Dehong, Yunnan: a hard hit area along a major drug trafficking route

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 1989 when the first 146 HIV positives in China were identified, Dehong Prefecture had been one of the areas hardest-hit by HIV in China. The local and national governments have put substantial financial resources into tackling the HIV epidemic in Dehong from 2004. The objective of this study was to track dynamic changes in HIV-1 prevalence and incidence among five focal populations in Dehong and to assess the impact of HIV prevention and control efforts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Consecutive cross-sectional surveys conducted in five focal populations between 2004 and 2008. Specimens seropositive for HIV were tested with the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay to identify recent seroconversions (median, 155 days) using normalized optical density of 0.8 and adjustments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2004 to 2008, estimated annual HIV incidence among injecting drug users (IDUs) decreased significantly [from 15.0% (95% CI = 11.4%-18.5%) in 2004 to 4.3% (95% CI = 2.4%-6.2%) in 2008; trend test P < 0.0001]. The incidence among other focal populations, such as HIV discordant couples (varying from 5.5% to 4.7%), female sex workers (varying from 1.4% to 1.3%), pregnant women (0.1%), and pre-marital couples (0.2 to 0.1%) remained stable. Overall, the proportion of recent HIV-1 infections was higher among females than males (P < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Dehong continued to expand during a five-year period but at a slowing rate among IDUs, and HIV incidence remains high among IDUs and discordant couples. Intensive prevention measures should target sub-groups at highest risk to further slow the epidemic and control the migration of HIV to other areas of China, and multivariate analysis is needed to explore which measures are more effective for different populations.</p

Decline in HIV Prevalence among Young Women in Zambia: National-Level Estimates of Trends Mask Geographical and Socio-Demographic Differences

Background: A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15–24 years in Zambia. Design and Methods: We analysed ANC data for women aged 15–24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994–2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15–24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people. Findings: Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10 % and 68 % among urban women, and from stability to 86 % among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002

Diagnostic performance of line-immunoassay based algorithms for incident HIV-1 infection

Background: Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have previously demonstrated that a patient's antibody reaction pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIA™ HIV I/II Score) provides information on the duration of infection, which is unaffected by clinical, immunological and viral variables. In this report we have set out to determine the diagnostic performance of Inno-Lia algorithms for identifying incident infections in patients with known duration of infection and evaluated the algorithms in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. Methods: Diagnostic sensitivity was determined in 527 treatment-naive patients infected for up to 12 months. Specificity was determined in 740 patients infected for longer than 12 months. Plasma was tested by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (< = 12 m) or older infection by 26 different algorithms. Incident infection rates (IIR) were calculated based on diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm and the rule that the total of incident results is the sum of true-incident and false-incident results, which can be calculated by means of the pre-determined sensitivity and specificity. Results: The 10 best algorithms had a mean raw sensitivity of 59.4% and a mean specificity of 95.1%. Adjustment for overrepresentation of patients in the first quarter year of infection further reduced the sensitivity. In the preferred model, the mean adjusted sensitivity was 37.4%. Application of the 10 best algorithms to four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications totalling 2'595 patients yielded a mean IIR of 0.35 in 2005/6 (baseline) and of 0.45, 0.42 and 0.35 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The increase between baseline and 2008 and the ensuing decreases were highly significant. Other adjustment models yielded different absolute IIR, although the relative changes between the cohorts were identical for all models Conclusions: The method can be used for comparing IIR in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. The use of several different algorithms in combination, each with its own sensitivity and specificity to detect incident infection, is advisable as this reduces the impact of individual imperfections stemming primarily from relatively low sensitivities and sampling bias

Contrasting Population Structures of Two Vectors of African Trypanosomoses in Burkina Faso: Consequences for Control

Tsetse flies are insects that transmit trypanosomes to humans (sleeping sickness) and animals (nagana). Controlling these vectors is a very efficient way to control these diseases. In Burkina Faso, a tsetse eradication campaign is presently targeting the northern part of the Mouhoun River Basin. To attain this objective, the approach has to be area-wide, i.e. the control effort targets an entire pest population within a circumscribed area. To assess the level of this isolation, we studied the genetic structure of Glossina palpalis gambiensis and Glossina tachinoides populations in the target area and in the adjacent river basins of the Comoé, the Niger and the Sissili River Basins. Our results suggest an absence of strong genetic isolation of the target populations. We therefore recommend establishing permanent buffer zones between the Mouhoun and the other river basin(s) to prevent reinvasion. This kind of study may be extended to other areas on other tsetse species