COVID-19 pandemic on coronary artery and cerebrovascular diseases in Southern Spain: interrupted time series analysis

Objective: Healthcare systems have been put under intense pressure by the COVID-19 pandemic, although some studies have shown a decline in hospital admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases during the first and second wave of the pandemic. In addition, studies analyzing gender and procedural differences are scarce. The present study aimed to determine the impact of the pandemic on hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in Andalusia (Spain) and analyzed differences by gender and by percutaneous coronary interventions performed. Patients and methods: An interrupted time series analysis of AMI and CVD hospital admissions in Andalusia (Spain) was carried out to measure the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. AMI and CVD cases admitted daily in public hospitals of Andalusia between January 2018 and December 2020 were included. Results: During the pandemic, significant reductions in AMI [-19%; 95% confidence interval (CI): (-29%, -9%), p<0.001] and CVD [-17%; 95% CI: (-26%, -9%); p<0.01] in daily hospital admissions were observed. Differences were also produced according to the diagnosis (ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction, Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction, other AMI and stroke), with a greater reduction in females for AMI and in males for CVD. Although there were more percutaneous coronary interventions during the pandemic, no significant reductions were observed. Conclusions: A decline in AMI and CVD daily hospital admissions during the first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic was noted. Gender differences were observed, but no clear impact was observed in percutaneous interventions

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates

CHRONOFALLS: A multicentre nurse-led intervention in the chronoprevention of in-hospital falls in adults

Background: Falls are among the most common and serious adverse events for hospitalised patients. In-hospital falls pose a major medical and economic challenge for public health worldwide. Nevertheless, the issue is often addressed without regard to certain relevant variables such as the time of the fall. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of the implementation of a nurse-led intervention based on the temporal patterns of falls and their aetiology on the occurrence of falls. Methods: A mixed-method research design was carried out in three phases: a) a longitudinal prospective study (audits, chronobiological analyses and implementation of a multicentre nurse-led intervention based on temporal patterns of falls); b) a retrospective study of fall records; and c) a qualitative study based on focus groups. The protocol was published in 2021. Results: A difference was observed in the number of fall records before and after the chronopreventive intervention (retrospective: 64.4% vs. 35.6%; p < 0,001). According to the interrupted series analysis, considering the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in falls of 2.96% (95% CI 1.70%-4.17%) was observed. The concepts of falls, the COVID-19 pandemic and the causes of non-registration have emerged as categories for qualitative analysis. Conclusions: A multicentric nurse-led program based on tailored organisational, educational and behavioural chronopreventive measures seems to lead to a reduction in the number of in-hospital falls. The findings of the present study, highlighting the implementation of chronopreventive measures, can serve as a basis for future health policies

Efficient importance sampling in low dimensions using affine arithmetic

Despite the development of sophisticated techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo, importance sampling (IS) remains an important Monte Carlo method for low dimensional target distributions. This paper describes a new technique for constructing proposal distributions for IS, using affine arithmetic. This work builds on the Moore rejection sampler to which we provide a comparison

Essential versus accessory aspects of cell death: recommendations of the NCCD 2015

Cells exposed to extreme physicochemical or mechanical stimuli die in an uncontrollable manner, as a result of their immediate structural breakdown. Such an unavoidable variant of cellular demise is generally referred to as ‘accidental cell death’ (ACD). In most settings, however, cell death is initiated by a genetically encoded apparatus, correlating with the fact that its course can be altered by pharmacologic or genetic interventions. ‘Regulated cell death’ (RCD) can occur as part of physiologic programs or can be activated once adaptive responses to perturbations of the extracellular or intracellular microenvironment fail. The biochemical phenomena that accompany RCD may be harnessed to classify it into a few subtypes, which often (but not always) exhibit stereotyped morphologic features. Nonetheless, efficiently inhibiting the processes that are commonly thought to cause RCD, such as the activation of executioner caspases in the course of apoptosis, does not exert true cytoprotective effects in the mammalian system, but simply alters the kinetics of cellular demise as it shifts its morphologic and biochemical correlates. Conversely, bona fide cytoprotection can be achieved by inhibiting the transduction of lethal signals in the early phases of the process, when adaptive responses are still operational. Thus, the mechanisms that truly execute RCD may be less understood, less inhibitable and perhaps more homogeneous than previously thought. Here, the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death formulates a set of recommendations to help scientists and researchers to discriminate between essential and accessory aspects of cell death

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700